As I understand the science, one can’t separate natural selection from random mutation and still be talking about the modern concept of biological evolution. The two components are inseparable.
Natural selection simply says that the more fit organisms will survive.
The best evidence of what random mutation is capable of doing is from the studies on such organisms as Malaria and HIV. What we see in these cases is not evolution, but rather devolution.
Michael Behe (I know, he is on the blacklist; but he is a phenomenal scientist and just happens to be a good Catholic man) explains all of this in his book* The Edge of Evolution*. He says:
Time has always figured prominently in Darwinian explanations. Although few changes can be noticed in our own age, Darwinists say, over vast stretches of geological time imperceptible modifications of life can add up to profound ones. It’s no wonder that we don’t see much coherent variation going on in the biology of our everyday world - evolutionary processes are so slow that a human lifetime is like a moment. The work on malaria and HIV upon which I base much of the argument for the edge of evolution has mostly been done in the last fifty years. So how can it tell us anything reliable about what could happen over millions or even billions of years?
Time is actually not the chief factor in evolution - population numbers are. In calculating how quickly a beneficial mutation might appear, evolutionary biologists multiply the mutation rate by the population size…
The numbers of malaria cells and HIV in just the past fifty years have probably greatly surpassed the number of mammals that have lived on the earth in the past several hundred million years. So the evolutionary behavior of the pathogens in even such a short time as a half century gives us a clear indication of what can happen with larger organisms over enormous time spans. The fact that no new cellular protein-protein interactions were fashioned, that mutations were incoherent, that changes in only a few genes were able to help, and that those changes were only relatively (not absolutely) beneficial - all that gives us strong reason to expect the same for large organisms over longer times.
Still, are the numbers we’ve examined enough? A hundred billion billion (10^20) malarial cells and HIV viruses is certainly a lot, but it’s miniscule compared to the number of microorganisms that have lived on the earth since it first formed. Workers at the University of Georgia estimate that 10^30 single-celled organisms are produced every year; over the billion-year plus history of the earth, the total number of cells that have existed may be close to 10^40. Looked at another way, for each malarial cell in the past fifty years there have been about 10^20 other microorganisms throughout history. Can we extrapoloate from malaria and HIV to all of bacteria? To all of life?
Sure. We do of course have to be cautious and keep in mind that we are indeed extrapolating, but science routinely extrapolates from what we see happening now to what happened in the past. The same laws of physics that work here and now are used to estimate broadly how the universe developed over billions of years. So we can also use current biology to infer generally what happened over the course of life on earth. Since we see no new protein-protein interactions developing in 10^20 cells, we can be reasonably confident that, at the least, no new cellular systems needing two new protein-protein interactions would develop in 10^40 cells - in the entire history of life. The principle that we use to make the extrapolation - that the odds against two independent events is the multiple of the odds against each event - is very well tested.
…Until an organism is found that is demonstrated to be much more adept than the malarial parasite at building coherent molecular machinery by random mutation and natural selection, there is no positive reason to believe it can be done. And the best evidence we have from malaria and HIV argues that it is biologically unreasonable to think so.