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Orleans_Attny
Guest
Maybe they should just invent a (finger quotes) “Laser” that orbits the earth.
Pax,
OA
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Pax,
OA
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Darryl1958
Guest
I was just trying to establish the fact that you really did understand in which way Iran represents a threat, and it has now been established that you in fact understand the real nature of that threat as well as I do.
I would say that an unlimited environmental movement that has effectively shut down domestic production is also a threat. I would only wish that Republican candidates would campaign more on the issue of getting the oil flowing and the nuclear energy and other proven energy sources as a good option to the over the top environmentalism that shows no perspective on virtues becoming vices when carried too far.
ME oil carries no such environmental baggage.
Domestic oil productions outside of the ME did begin to rise after the 1970’s crisis, in spite of any government stupidity. Saudi Arabia at the time had the capacity to turn the taps back on and bring down prices, and that is what happened. The markets are drawn to the lowest prices like a magnet, and Saudi Arabia has played that like a yo yo in its own interests since OPEC discovered the usefulness of that kind of power in 1973.
A nuclear Iran changes the equation in the ME.That is not in Americas interests, nor in Saudi Arabias A nuclear arms race in a neighborhood such as the ME is not in the world’s interests in general.
That is where the danger lies.
But you already know that, because your car does not run on cold tap water like mine does.
Cold fusion has its advantages.
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Monte_RCMS
Guest
First, 50 miles off shore is in international waters.
Second, our Navy has been dramatically downsized over the years.
Third, our military spending as a percent of GDP is below 5%. Whenever that happens, historically, we then get attacked because our enemies just happen to notice that we have created gaps in our defenses by not spending to fill the gaps in our defenses.
It happened prior to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor; they perceived us as weak. The United States had cut its military dramatically. And within a day or so, right after Pearl Harbor, Germany issued a formal declaration of war against the United States. And it wasn’t until late in 1943 that it was fairly certain that Japan and Germany would lose the war. And even then … if the Battle of Midway had gone the other way … which could easily have happened … we would likely have lost the war in the Pacific. OR, if the Germans had made one or two minor changes in their war-fighting tactics, they would have won in Europe. I just read the obituary of one of the Brits who was working desperately in the U.S. to get the United States into the war; Churchill wrote extensively after the war at how close Britain came to complete bankruptcy at the beginning of the war and would have no longer been able to continue fighting.
It happened again in 1950, when President Truman almost completely demobilized … even in the face of the Soviet threats in Europe, the Berlin Blockade and the Berlin Airlift … he still cut the Navy back. Military spending was so low that the Soviets/North Koreans could not resist attacking South Korea. It was by accident of fate, that the Soviets had just walked out of the UN when a vote came up and “our response” became a UN response. But, nevertheless, another near thing.
It happened again in the years just prior to 9/11. We were weak, both in spending for military force and in our unwillingness to even counter threats that we knew about … stupid things like the Gorelick Wall.
And believe it or not, we are again, right now, in that valley of low military spending … we are inviting an attack by our perceived weaknesses. It shows up in big areas and in small areas. Big fiascoes, such as the Air Forces shooting itself in the foot with procurement delays for its aerial tanker fleet. And small ones, such as shutting down production of essential new fighter aircraft.
And the Navy is just as vulnerable because their ships and submarines are being mothballed and production of replacements has just about stopped.
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Monte_RCMS
Guest
Nuclear warheads have been dramatically downsized over the years.
Just, for yourself, take a look at photos of all of the various cruise missiles; nuclear warheads are extremely small. Forget about the ginormous city buster technology of yesteryear; the five ton Hiroshima Bomb. Or the early nukes that were huge … the five foot diameter and twenty foot long things that required a whole B-52 bomb bay. With modern technology, those huge bomb bays were converted to fuel tanks or were equipped with multiple cruise missile launchers.
You can probably find some good photos.
But modern nuke warheads are the size of a bowling ball.
And, to make matters worse, we also know that all the United States nuclear weapons technology was stolen; a sketch of one of our advanced concepts showed up in a Chinese technical paper. There was a huge controversy about it some years ago. And that technology was found to be passed around the world … China to North Korea to Pakistan to Iran. Even South Africa built the bomb; and they did it in secret; not that difficult. Even little Libya shocked and surprised us with their nuclear weapons project. Not that difficult.
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Monte_RCMS
Guest
I have no idea what specifics turned off your mother to the military POV, whatever that is.I’ve noticed that it does tend to be non-military folks who encourage this kind of drum-beating most often. I’m not entirely sure why that is, but it certainly seems to hold true most of the time.
Peace and God bless!
P.S. Full disclosure, I’m not a military person and never have been. I was raised to distrust the military POV (my mother’s side is a military family and she had a lot of resentment towards the views of her father), but I’ve definitely come to appreciate the sober view of reality I’ve seen from most military personnel and my “inculturated animus” has been pretty much wiped away.
There were terrible family separations. And military personnel who just could not or would not discuss their work. And the way that widows were treated was beyond shameful … for example, having to immediately vacate military family housing upon the death of their husbands.
People who worked in the intelligence community generally NEVER discussed their work and took what they knew to their graves. They generally would not even acknowledge that they worked in intelligence; when asked what they did, they would just mumble. They signed secrecy agreements and they honored that trust.
There are some, few, open sources. One new and recent one is “These Guys … Cold War Stories Told By Cold War Warriors” collected and edited by Trish Schlesser … available on Amazon.
And author Larry Tart has just published a massive three-volume set “Freedom Through Vigilance” … available from Amazon.
And Larry Tart’s earlier book, “The Price of Vigilance”.
There is very little written about Navy or Army intelligence collection activity. The best sources are from the UK, where they may respect their own secrets but freely discuss American secrets. Start with books by Richard Aldrich such as “GCHQ” available from Amazon.
You can also visit www.eyespymag.com The Brits have always been much more open about this stuff than the Americans.
Just because you distrust some individuals, doesn’t mean that the threat is fiction.
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iamrefreshed
Guest
What’s at stake here is the endangered prarie mouse!
Canada is already looking to China to be a big market. While diversified markets are a good thing for a seller like Canada, America really needs to wake up to what is at stake here.
We don’t want your stinking oil if it harms a mouse!
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SamH
Guest
Remember how we found out about Libya’s nuclear program?
A truly “modern” nuclear warhead can be smaller than a bowling ball. In the 1950s the US built warheads as small as 12" wide and 30" long that could be fired from a shoulder held rocket launcher. One can only “assume” that the technology has gotten better since then. That particular weapon had about 4 times the power of the Little Boy bomb dropped on Hiroshima. There’s no need for a “Scud” sized rocket. A simple radio controlled toy plane could easily do the job.
google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://rcaeroplane.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/largest-rc-plane1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://rcaeroplane.org/largest-rc-plane/&h=425&w=720&sz=70&tbnid=QEc8MbXAxCEMlM:&tbnh=83&tbnw=140&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dlarge%2Bradio%2Bcontrolled%2Bplane%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=large+radio+controlled+plane&usg=__Ya6PfOW2voJ7iaxlYx5cBzsuGT8=&sa=X&ei=CJX0To20HMLy2QXAvpWhAg&ved=0CBQQ9QEwAA
Assuming that a country like Iran has access to Google and Wiki they could easily replicate the technology that the US had 60 years ago.
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Monte_RCMS
Guest
Back, 50 years ago, they could package a nuke into an 8" artillery shell. And some folks were joking about building a nuclear hand grenade … that small and that light. [Of course, you might not be able to throw it far enough to avoid the fireball … but that’s what they were bsing about 50 years ago.]
The Scud missile would allow you to get the thing up 100 or 200 miles for the EMP effect.
In addition, the “EMP bomb” would be specifically designed for THAT particular effect … to maximize the electromagnetic pulse. So you wouldn’t need a mega-megaton Czar Bomba device. Just a little package designed for maximum EMP and a carrier to get it up high enough. Even the German’s V-2 rocket of WWII would get up 60 miles or so.
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SamH
Guest
You are talking about a regional EMP burst to shut down the entire east coast. The simple setup I was writing about (radio controlled toy plane) burst over New York City would cause substantial EMP damage from Boston to Baltimore - not to mention the physical damage that NY City would suffer.
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Seamus_L
Guest
If that ever happens I’m converting to Amish.
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manualman
Guest
No enriched nuclar fuel, no nuclear weapons. Without large number of high tech centerfuges, no enriched fuel. These devices spin so fast that it is extremely difficult to balance them while starting up and slowing down. You don’t have to blow up the whole building. All you have to do is kill the power supplies (usually 2-3 backups too). Then they will destroy themselves and kill all the personnel in the building.
No need to invade, no tanks, no fighters or armored divisions. Just find the centerfuge farms and take them out. What’s the holdup? It’s not like you can hids dozens of these things and a triple redundant power supply in a cave someplace…
No need to invade, no tanks, no fighters or armored divisions. Just find the centerfuge farms and take them out. What’s the holdup? It’s not like you can hids dozens of these things and a triple redundant power supply in a cave someplace…
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Darryl1958
Guest
The illegal immigrant situation indicates how porous that the US border can be, especially on the south, and there are enough Iranian sleeper cells within the US.
The asymmetric nature of Iranian warfare most certainly will not see them delivering nuclear warheads through intercontinental missiles or submarines or the like. But Iran already has the capability to deliver real damage to the US from domestic strikes from within the US borders.
Being a nation of immigrants has its advantages where the worlds huddled masses become transformed into the next generation of American engineers and scientists. It also leaves America wide open for the kind of terrorist warfare that Iran excels at.
The asymmetric nature of Iranian warfare most certainly will not see them delivering nuclear warheads through intercontinental missiles or submarines or the like. But Iran already has the capability to deliver real damage to the US from domestic strikes from within the US borders.
Being a nation of immigrants has its advantages where the worlds huddled masses become transformed into the next generation of American engineers and scientists. It also leaves America wide open for the kind of terrorist warfare that Iran excels at.
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Ghosty
Guest
I’m well aware of the size of modern nuclear devices, I’m also aware that the modern SCUD missiles can’t carry a modern nuclear payload that would do the damage you suggest; at absolute optimal conditions and payload size it might take out the fine electronics of a couple of cities. This is leaving aside the fact that Iran would never be able to get a boat with SCUDs on its deck anywhere close to the U.S.
Peace and God bless!
Peace and God bless!
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Monte_RCMS
Guest
If that ever happens, you wouldn’t have TIME to convert to Amish.
You would need to start RIGHT NOW.
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Monte_RCMS
Guest
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Monte_RCMS
Guest
You are kidding, of course.
The nuke wouldn’t have to weigh very much. “maybe” less than 100 pounds. Probably much less than 100 pounds.
The Scud missile was designed to loft a warhead weighing 2000 pounds. [One metric tonne, which is more than 2000 pounds. Makes for easier ballistic tables when it’s all standardized. But that was back in the 1960’s with slide rules. Much easier now.] Besides the Iranians would be firing straight up. Minor variations in altitude and azimuth wouldn’t mean too much.
books.google.com/books?id=GtREH40uspcC&pg=PA17&lpg=PA17&dq=Scud+warhead&source=bl&ots=Ik-XSXVrub&sig=eZkJCxrKx1yYjiV6pXPJP34AkJ0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=hbX0Tt6gFMfA2gWIs82gAg&ved=0CGYQ6AEwCQ#v=onepage&q=Scud%20warhead&f=false
There are hundreds of ships out there on the ocean … don’t need a ginormous ship for one or two or three Scud missiles. A fishing boat would do. Drug smugglers have no problem bringing in a ship that size.
And if they stay 50 miles off shore, … no telling.
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Darryl1958
Guest
I don’t think that a border where tons of illicit drugs and aliesn are smuggled in each year would be that impossible to breach.
There is no telling what kind of delivery system that Iranian agents working inside the country could build too though.
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manualman
Guest
Power is still the Achilles heel. Even if you build backup generators with an uninterruptable power supply and bury them deep with the centerfuges, you still have to get the exhaust out and clean air in. Serious surface bombing will collapse intake and exhaust passages, the centerfuges lose power, wobble and burst and they’re back to square one.
No need for infantry troops or a larger war. Just thrash the centerfuges.
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smndtupidisaftr
Guest
If anything we’re spending too much.
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Japan was a very advanced nation with a great military. Are you really going to compare Pearl Harbor and the Japanese to Iran? Furthermore, Japan had an ally in the industrial powerhouse Germany. Iran is not a threat! This is a third world country that would be annihilated if they attacked us.
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SamH
Guest
Actually a leaky old 40 year old Soviet submarine could easily do more damage with a single torpedo than the Japanese ever dreamed of doing with their Pearl Harbor attack.
Whether or not anyone would be annihilated is debatable. We are still fighting a war in a country that sponsored an attack on the US that killed thousands and many leaders and citizens question why we are doing so. And Iran is a lot more advanced than Afghanistan was/is.
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