US unemployment rate likely rose on weak hiring

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From the AP:
With a month to go until the presidential election, the government on Friday issues its September jobs report, expected to show an uptick in the U.S. unemployment rate after employers added only a modest number of jobs.

Economists forecast that the unemployment rate edged up last month to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent, according to a survey by FactSet. Employers are expected to have added 111,000 jobs.

That would be an improvement from the 96,000 jobs gained in August. But that is still barely enough to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

The Labor Department issues the jobs report at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

An increase in the unemployment rate could add momentum to Mitt Romney’s campaign to unseat President Barack Obama. Jobs and the economy were central issues in the first presidential debate Wednesday and most polls showed that voters considered Romney to have prevailed.
Prayers for those seeking work and for those who have given up.

There is a school of thought that says FDR’s policies actually extended the Depression longer than it needed to go. Obama, who, in a second term, will actually make FDR look like a libertarian, may be falling into the same trap.
 
Unemployment rate is 7.8%, 114000 jobs created in september. Of the 873000 jobs in september 600000 are part time jobs

1 new job for every 3070 people

If the labor force participation was the same as Janaruy 2009 the unemployment rate would be 10.7% or over 11%. Approx 8 or 9 million have left the work force since Jan 2009

If unemployment and underemployment are measured at the U 6 level the unemployment rate would be 14.7%

Now only 22886000 unemployed

Liberal Morning Joe said, ‘the Labor Department needs to explain this…this doesn’t make sense’

I do not trust the revision down with anemic job growth
 
_Abyssinia said:
Unemployment rate is 7.8%, 114000 jobs created in september. 1 new job fo every 3070 people

If the labor force participation was the same as Janaruy 2009 the unemployment rate would be 10.7% or over 11%. Approx 8 or 9 million have left the work force since Jan 2009

If unemployment and underemployment are measured at the U 6 level the unemployment rate would be 14.7%

Now only 22886000 unemployed
Click to expand...
Democrats will spin the 7.8% as great news. This is the first time unemployment broke the 8% threshold in Obama’s term. Consequently, Obama will see a jump in the polls. The average American voter will not look behind the numbers as you have, Abyssinia. They will hear 7.8% and rejoice. This could be the number that wins Obama the election. 😦 Americans will see this as an upward trend and proof that Obama’s policies are working. 😦 I don’t buy it, like many here, but we are not your typical uninformed voters.
 
Tampa_Dave said:
Democrats will spin the 7.8% as great news. This is the first time unemployment broke the 8% threshold in Obama’s term. Consequently, Obama will see a jump in the polls. The average American voter will not look behind the numbers as you have, Abyssinia. They will hear 7.8% and rejoice. This could be the number that wins Obama the election. 😦 Americans will see this as an upward trend and proof that Obama’s policies are working. 😦 I don’t buy it, like many here, but we are not your typical uninformed voters.
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Obama campaign spun the 8.1% number last month and did it help them that much in the polls? The unemployment rate dropped 1/3 of a 1% in september. They can not claim a victory over that

I know some predicted the unemployment rate would go up but I thought it would decrease, not because 100s of thousands of jobs were being created but because more people were leaving the work force. It is Romney and Ryan’s job to make people see beneath the 7.8% number - that is 22 million plus un and underemployed people. January 2009 Obama said the unemployment rate would be 5.6% if the stimulus was passed
 
_Abyssinia said:
Obama campaign spun the 8.1% number last month and did it help them that much in the polls? The unemployment rate dropped 1/3 of a 1% in september. They can not claim a victory over that

Some people think there is spme spin going on with the jobs numbers to help Obama, I am not sure. I know some predicted the unemployment rate would go up but I thought it would decrease, not because 100s of thousands of jobs were being created but because more people were leaving the work force. It is Romney and Ryan’s job to make people see beneath the 7.8% number - that is 22 million plus un and underemployed people. January 2009 Obama said the unemployment rate would be 5.6% if the stimulus was passed
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I think 8% represents a psychological barrier that will boost Obama’s campaign, regardless of the truth behind the numbers.
 
Business expert Stuart Varney just said it, there is a contradiction in this report. 873000 found work (600000 part time), but only 114000 jobs created
 
Tampa_Dave said:
I think 8% represents a psychological barrier that will boost Obama’s campaign, regardless of the truth behind the numbers.
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Doubt 0.3% decline will boost him after his terrible debate performance
 
Obama attacked George Bush in june 2004 for 5.6% uenmployment rate, 112000 jobs created
 
_Abyssinia said:
Joe Scrborough on MSNBC said
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Understand me. I agree with everything you say. I just picture a factory worker in Ohio saying “Wow! Unemployment dropped below 8%. We are heading in the right direction. Obama’s agenda is working. He was right!”

Your numbers and analysis are correct. I am strictly looking at the psychological impression a 7.8% unemployment rate might have on uninformed voters.
 
Maybe they make sense if you figure in the new permanently disabled workers. Obama has created more of them then the economy has created jobs. After 4 decades of OSHA our government has a record setting pace of disabled worker creation then job creation. Way to go America. 😦
 


The unemployment rate has gone down because people have given up.

Look at the number of people who are not attached to the labor force now versus January, 2009 (when he assumed office).
 
Unemployment rate drops .5% in just two months with no jobs added above population growth, smell fishy?
 
Obama’s agenda will keep us permanently burdened with high unemployment. ObamaCare, in particular, will cost us trillions of dollars and balloon our deficits until the U.S. defaults on its obligations to creditors.
 
Mitt Romney today released the following statement on the September unemployment report:
Click to expand...
“This is not what a real recovery looks like. We created fewer jobs in September than in August, and fewer jobs in August than in July, and we’ve lost over 600,000 manufacturing jobs since President Obama took office. If not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force, the real unemployment rate would be closer to 11%. The results of President Obama’s failed policies are staggering – 23 million Americans struggling for work, nearly one in six living in poverty and 47 million people dependent on food stamps to feed themselves and their families. The choice in this election is clear. Under President Obama, we’ll get another four years like the last four years. If I’m elected, we will have a real recovery with pro-growth policies that will create 12 million new jobs and rising incomes for everyone.”
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Abyssinia,

Lets hope Mitt raises this argument at the next debate if Obama tries to buoy the 7.8% unemployment rate. Very sound argument based on fact.
 
The sickly, stagnant September jobs report
http://www.aei-ideas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/romerbernsteinSeptember20121-600x340.jpg
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Only in an era of depressingly diminished expectations could the September jobs report be called a good one. It really isn’t. Not at all.
  1. Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs. As the Labor Department noted:
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
  1. The broader U-6 rate — which takes into account part-time workers who want full-time work and lots of discouraged workers who’ve given up looking — stayed unchanged at 14.7%. That’s a better gauge of the true unemployment rate and state of the American labor market.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/100512u6.jpg
  1. The shrunken workforce remains shrunken. If the labor force participation rate was the same as when President Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 10.7%. If the participation rate had just stayed steady since the start of the year, the unemployment rate would be 8.4% vs. 8.3%. Where’s the progress?
  2. As the chart at the top of the post shows — a chart originally produced by Team Obama — even the artificially depressed 7.8% unemployment rate is way above the 5.6% unemployment rate the White House predicted for September 2012 if Congress passed the $800 billion stimulus package back in 2009.
  3. The 114,000 jobs created number would have been a good number … but for 1962, not 2012. The U.S. economy needs 2-3 times that number every month to close the jobs gap (which is the number of jobs that the U.S. economy needs to create in order to return to pre-recession employment levels while also absorbing the people who enter the labor force each month.) At 114,000 jobs a month, the jobs gap would not close until after 2025, according to the Hamilton Project.
  4. We are still on pace to create fewer jobs this year than last year. In 2012, employment growth has averaged 146,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011.
The U.S. labor market remains in a deep depression with virtually no recovery since the official end of the Great Recession. But the Long Recession continues unabated.
 
From CNN.com

*Although the revisions were positive, the economy is growing at the same sluggish pace it has been since the spring, and is showing few signs of speeding up any time soon. *

*The country generally needs at least 150,000 new jobs each month just to keep up with population growth. *

Most economists predict the U.S. economy will grow no faster than 3% a year, until at least 2014.

I look forward to the November revision downward of jobs added in September… This level of growth is unsustainable.
 
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