I will begin with the topic of souls. This argument begins with a wooden chair. You can see the chair and you know it’s a chair, right? Now suppose you burn the chair. The chair is gone. But the idea of “chair-ness” is not. You still know what a chair is, even though the chair has been burned. No matter what you do, you cannot destroy the idea of “chair-ness” because it is not physical. Humans must have a spiritual principle within them in order to be able to grasp the idea of a spiritual principle. Animals cannot do this, because animals do not have souls.
Now for the universe. I understand your point about unlikely things happening due to the size of the universe, but what about the universe itself? It has been scientifically proven that the universe has a beginning. Who began it? There cannot be an endless chain of beginnings. For example, if you were to see a boxcar moving along train tracks and wonder what is pulling it, you might hear the answer, “The boxcar in front of it.” But that boxcar, too, must be pulled by something. Therefore, you can have an endless train of boxcars but none of them will move, because boxcars cannot pull themselves. Therefore, there must be an unmoved mover to start the motion. In the case of the boxcars it is a locomotive. In the case of the universe it is God.