Who's Going to Pay the Bills?: Purpose-Driven Coronavirus Business Shutdowns Cause Economic Catastrophe

[Freddy]

I doubt it.

Why would other countries care about policing issues in American cities?

ICXC NIKA

It’s gone global because it’s a global problem. Racism isn’t restricted to the US.

 

[jeannetherese]

What is defined as a case varies from country to country, as do abilities to create statistical information on populations. Lesser developed countries will struggle as will rural areas in many semi peripheral countries. Even the Johns Hopkins material needs a lot of contextualization before any definitive statements are made-and then those definitive statements will be challenged.

 

[Erikaspirit16]

What is defined as a case varies from country to country, as do abilities to create statistical information on populations. Lesser developed countries will struggle as will rural areas in many semi peripheral countries.

No question. However, it’s sort of like saying a 6’9" basketball player and a 4’ woman MIGHT be the same size because your measuring tape wasn’t that accurate. We’re not talking tiny numbers here, we’re talking orders of magnitude.

You comments also conform to the usual conservative tactic: “Well, something MIGHT be true. You can’t PROVE (in a logical mathematical sense!) that your statistics are true!”

 

[1cthlctrth]

between 2 and 3%

Nice try.
https://www.conservativereview.com/...-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/
The CDC said overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
Those without comorbidities or underlying conditions are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.

 

[Hume]

Horowitz put some fierce spin on this one.

From the CDC site; Roughly 3.2%
(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

 

[Peaceable]

The problem is how rapidly contagious this is. 3% of the American population is nearly 1,000,000 people dying. That’s bad!

While 3% sounds small, 3% of a large number is not!

 

[jeannetherese]

You comments also conform to the usual conservative tactic: “Well, something MIGHT be true. You can’t PROVE (in a logical mathematical sense!) that your statistics are true!”

Every now and then, people who like to think for themselves, draw similar conclusions.
I’ve been following the statistics on worldometers and Johns Hopkins since March.
Data variations happen and nothing is yet settled.
We know that nursing home deaths account for a great deal of the problem in our country, and yet, early on, Florida with its high number of elderly seemed to be doing relatively well. Now?
There are so many variables involved. Scientists will be getting lots of publications out of this in the years to come, and many many choose to emphasize different variables as they discuss the virus and the way it affected different areas.
Sweden, Spain, the U.K. and Italy all have higher deaths per million than the U.S. Portugal, on the other hand, is much lower.
Given the problems in the U.K., I’m not ready to demand that we adopt their model of health care. I wonder how Portugal has (so far) gotten off so relatively easy?

 

[1cthlctrth]

We know that nursing home deaths account for a great deal of the problem in our country

Good point. We had the genius Governors in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, who forced COVID-19 patients into nursing homes. In addition, we’re one of the few countries that includes motorcycle deaths as COVID-19 deaths (when the victim incidentally had COVID at the time of a fatal accident).
https://www.conservativereview.com/...coronavirus-now-causing-motorcycle-accidents/
(hat-tip @cathoholic)

In addition, the United States has tested 270,146 people per million, far more than any other country.

 

[1cthlctrth]

I give you an “A” for effort.

CDC: Coronavirus Fatality Rate 0.26%, 8-15x Lower than Estimates

Data from the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests that the novel coronavirus’s true fatality rate in the United States, which takes into account mild and asymptomatic cases, stands at 0.26 percent, about eight to 15 times lower than earlier mortality rate estimates of between two and four percent, which prompted the lockdowns.

Most cases of COVID-19 are asymptomatic. Hence, they are never tested, and there are far more cases than the record indicates. Therefore, a lower death rate.

And we also know that more than 80% of the COVID-19 deaths occur in people aged 65 and over. That increases to over 92% if the 55-64 age group is included. Only 45 kids under age 15 have died with COVID-19.

Protect the vulnerable, and let the rest of us produce.

 

[Erikaspirit16]

Data from the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC ) suggests that the novel coronavirus’s true fatality rate in the United States, which takes into account mild and asymptomatic cases , stands at 0.26 percent , about eight to 15 times lower than earlier mortality rate estimates of between two and four percent, which prompted the lockdowns.

This was from May 20. Here is the same CDC report, updated July 10 (still a month old…). COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC This was NOT a report on what has happened, it’s a collection of 5 POSSIBLE scenarios based on various assumptions combined in various combinations.

Let me quote: " The parameters in the scenarios:
Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions."

about eight to 15 times lower than earlier mortality rate estimates of between two and four percent, which prompted the lockdowns.

The early models were based on a “if we do nothing, what’s going to happen?” scenario. And of course, despite the clumsiness of the US response, things WERE done to mitigate the deaths.

As I’ve said many times before, I’m sure we’ll have to wait a long time (years?) before there is a fairly good estimate of the actual number of deaths we can attribute (directly and indirectly) to Covid-19. Currently we’re both under counting and over counting…the question is, do these cancel each other out or not?

Meanwhile, the case fatality rate, while interesting (esp. to Trump, although he’s got the numbers completely wrong), is not as interesting as the deaths / 100,000 population. Lovely statistics compiled by Johns Hopkins and updated daily: Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

If you take San Marino and Andorra out of the mix, the US ranks 8th–from the BOTTOM in terms of deaths / 100,000. The US number is currently 49.8; Germany 11.1, Israel 6.75, Australia is 1.25, Japan, .83, S. Korea 0.59, New Zealand 0.45, Taiwan 0.03, and Vietnam 0.01. What apologists for the current US government need to explain is why the Australian death rate (just as an example) is 40 TIMES less than the US. This is not a rounding error or some other statistical quirk. It’s a HUGE difference.

Do Vietnam, Australia, Taiwan, etc. all have better doctors? Better medical facilities? Better Equipment? Maybe they are just lucky? Maybe all these countries are inhabited by genetic mutants? Or…they simply had better leaders. I’m going with the latter.

 

[Erikaspirit16]

I’ve been following the statistics on worldometers and Johns Hopkins since March.

Me too. I’ve got an Excel spreadsheet that automatically calculates the new cases and deaths for me. My data comes directly from the state depts. of health.

Data variations happen and nothing is yet settled.

Agreed.

There are so many variables involved.

Again, agreed. And new ones are added almost every day.

Given the problems in the U.K., I’m not ready to demand that we adopt their model of health care.

Nothing to do with their health system, which probably saved tens of thousands. It’s to do with a buffoon as a prime minister. Take a look at Youtube videos of Boris partying it up in a pub the night before the UK shutdown. Gee, I wonder how Boris caught it… Boris downplayed the seriousness of the virus, as did leaders of Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and so on. And guess who’s leading the list of countries with the most cases and deaths? All the countries (including the US) where the leader said “it’s like a case of the sniffles.” Really?

 

[Erikaspirit16]

Then they are committing fraud. But sorry if I doubt the story.

 

[farronwolf]

Not exactly. If certain people are being tested repeatedly the numbers aren’t per million. They are skewed.

Some people may have been tested 50 times eaxhnor more.

 

[jeannetherese]

Or…they simply had better leaders. I’m going with the latter.

That’s your hypothesis-but it, like so many others, remains unproven as a definitive cause.

 

[Erikaspirit16]

That’s your hypothesis-but it, like so many others, remains unproven as a definitive cause.

So why has the US handled this so dismally compared to a lot of other countries?

I have a cousin who works in Singapore. She’s not in health care, she’s in marketing. And she’s not a VIP, she’s just a regular person. Singapore tests her three times–a DAY!!! Think that might anything to do with their success?

In the Trump Era, we have learned three things:

“Some people say…” (but the people are never named)
“It’s possible that…” (but literally ANYTHING is possible)
“Can you prove…” (with mathematical certainty. No. You can’t prove anything by that definition.)

 

[Erikaspirit16]

And yet there’s no evidence! Amazing that millions of health care workers have kept this under wraps for almost 6 months! Maybe they’re all part of a giant conspiracy headed by George Soros?

 

[Zzyzx_Road]

The CDC has accepted that the actual number of cases may be around ten times the number of confirmed cases. Note “actual” vs “confirmed”. In that light, the death rate that was thought to be about 3% is a lot closer to 0.3% which is roughly close to what the Stanford study predicted months ago.

Cuomo is still trying to gaslight everyone about the nursing home deaths in his state; having refused to allow an independent investigation. Hence the nursing home death count that has been released for NY is woefully understated at just 20% of their total deaths.

The national death rate attributable to long term care facilities is about 44% of total deaths for the reporting states (43 states report this data). The rate for states that did the same as NY is a bit higher: CA 55%, MA 64%, NJ 44% and PA 68%. I’ll suspect that NJ is underreporting as well. If one is generous and applies the CA percentage 55% to the NY death toll, one comes up with nearly 18k deaths in NY coming from LTCFs instead of the 6.5k deaths that they actually reported.

If one compares the NY percentage (20%) with the other states’ percentages, it is easy to see that the NY percentage is absurdly low. Really out of whack with most of the reporting states. Check out the Kaiser Family Foundation data here and scroll down the page:

Global COVID-19 Tracker | KFF

No wonder the NY hospitals got overloaded like Italy hospitals did. No wonder Cuomo wants so badly to bury this as deep as he can. I hope the advocates for the NY elderly keep holding his feet to the fire.

 

[jeannetherese]

Singapore tests her three times–a DAY!!! Think that might anything to do with their success?

It might have something to do with their success. The ability to easily isolate the country might also have something to do with their success. The argument that a strain of corona has hit Asia recently enough to have conferred some degree of resistance, might, if proven, have some effect. Cultural expectations regarding masking might have something to do with their success. Early responses might have something to do with their success. General health of the population pre-Covid (obesity/diabetes/diet/other health factors) might have something to do with their success. The possibilities are almost endless…

 

[Erikaspirit16]

The possibilities are almost endless…

“it’s possible that…” As I said, ANYTHING is possible. That doesn’t absolve us from believing that when we turn the light switch the lights go off. It’s possible that elves in the walls control the lights, but I gave up on that one when I was three.

 

[Erikaspirit16]

This sounds like a “Some people say…” gambit. What evidence? Where? When? Who?

I know there are unscrupulous scam artists trying to sell people tests and cures. And there may be a few dodgy doctors out there trying to pad their income. But to suggest a systematic and widespread fraud perpetrated nationwide by doctors and / or hospitals is simply speculation.

See Hospital Payments and the COVID-19 Death Count - FactCheck.org

" Q: Are hospitals inflating the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths so they can be paid more?
A: Recent legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients and treatment, but there is no evidence of fraudulent reporting."

These rumors began with—take a guess–Fox News.

" The initial comment was made by Minnesota State Sen. Scott Jensen, a family physician, who [spoke] with Fox News host Laura Ingraham on April 8 about the idea that the number of COVID-19 deaths may be inflated. Jensen was responding to National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci, who — while answering a reporter’s question about that theory — [said] “you will always have conspiracy theories when you have very challenging public health crises. They are nothing but distractions.”

When Factcheck spoke with Sen. Jensen, he said he “did not think that hospitals were intentionally misclassifying cases for financial reasons.”

FActcheck: “multiple experts told us that such theories of hospitals deliberately miscoding patients as COVID-19 are not supported by any evidence.”