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Sarcelle
Guest
Or the virus mainly affects old people so who cares. They’ve lived a full life so they can die.
This is according to a certain Texas politician. I doubt he’s the only one who thinks this.
Who's Going to Pay the Bills?: Purpose-Driven Coronavirus Business Shutdowns Cause Economic Catastrophe
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This is according to a certain Texas politician. I doubt he’s the only one who thinks this.
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toddy
Guest
As of July 18,
Florida is going to be the next epicenter of covid within days with this trend.
Hospitals ran out ICU beds and capacity.
Los Angeles is possibly next if the cases did not back down. It is a crowd of 20 millions people.
40% infected have no symptoms!!!
Yale research:
asymptomatic infections account for 17.9% to 30.8% of all infections.
presymptomatic people would account for 47% to 48% of transmission,
Enough understood.
Americans failed.
Florida is going to be the next epicenter of covid within days with this trend.
Hospitals ran out ICU beds and capacity.
Los Angeles is possibly next if the cases did not back down. It is a crowd of 20 millions people.
40% infected have no symptoms!!!
Yale research:
asymptomatic infections account for 17.9% to 30.8% of all infections.
presymptomatic people would account for 47% to 48% of transmission,
Enough understood.
Americans failed.
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Erikaspirit16
Guest
Just so everyone understands:
US (pop. 330 million): 3,707,023 cases; 140,105 deaths
Taiwan (pop. 26 million): 451 cases; 7 deaths
NZ (pop. 5 million): 1,553 cases; 22 deaths
Australia (pop. 25 million: 11,802 cases; 122 deaths
Canada (pop. 38 million ) 111,875 cases; 8,892 deaths (not great, but FAR less than the US per capita)
S. Korea (pop. 51 million): 13,745 cases; 295 deaths
Vietnam (pop. 96 million): 382 cases; 0 deaths (yes, not a typo; and US doctors working in Hanoi for WHO say the figures are real.)
Appalling. And the point of looking at other countries is to show that all these cases and deaths in the US WERE NOT NECESSARY. The successful countries had good leadership that listened to the experts; many had pandemic plans in place (Taiwan, NZ); many had laws that forced hospitals to stock emergency supplies; and they acted quickly and decisively. They tested people at the first sign of symptoms, traced their contacts, put positive patients in quarantine and that was that. Meanwhile, the US is still only bothering to test many people only after they develop severe symptoms and even then they’re getting the tests back 3, 4, 5, 6, and even 7 days later–in other words they are allowing people to spread the infection for up to two weeks without doing anything about it. And this is month #5. If we are still doing the same thing in December, God help us.
Just for fun look at the US cases in the last week: 461,865 cases–IN A WEEK. If that week were a “country” it would rank #5 behind the US, Brazil, India and Russia.
And more than ⅔ of US cases have occurred AFTER states began to open up. And almost half of the deaths have occurred after opening up. So, naturally–WHEEE!!!–let’s all go back to school!!! Let’s get those numbers up!!!
Take a small spread-out state like Wyoming: 68 cases in the week after it opened up on May 1. How about in the last week? 225 new cases–3.3 TIMES the number May 1-7. Who cares, right? But what if it goes up 3.3 times in the next two months? and 3.3 times in the two months after that? Then what?
And I won’t even dwell on Florida’s record 15,000+ cases in ONE DAY last Monday. That’s more than S. Korea has had during the entire pandemic.
Anyone think the US has done “a great job”?
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Zzyzx_Road
Guest
No.
But there are different ways of looking at the responsible parties.
For instance, these four states: NY, NJ, CT and MA not only have far higher deaths per capita than any other US state, they have higher deaths per capita than any country in the world. The point being that different parts of the country have handled it differently, it is not one monolithic paradigm.
For the careful observers out there, this assertion and the accompanying chart below includes Sweden. Sweden’s deaths per capita are less than half of MA, and less than a third of NJ and NY. Plus Sweden’s deaths have severely declined since their peak.
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But Fauci just lauded NY as having handled it correctly.
smh
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Erikaspirit16
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Yes and no. The NE (NY, NJ, CT, MA) got hammered before they knew it was there. It had been circulating since early January, and because of lack of testing (not their fault) they couldn’t tell.
“Monolithic paradigm” --the only constant in this has been Trump and his ignorant and harmful comments. He continues to say “it will just go away.” Viruses don’t “just go away” unless people go to extraordinary lengths to eradicate them–polio, for example. Measles, chicken pox, etc. are still around. They didn’t “just go away.” The Georgia gov.–the same guy who said “Oh, I didn’t know it could spread before you had symptoms” (I guess he never read the paper or listened to radio or TV) is the same idiot who is forbidding his mayors to issue orders to wear masks. He was one of the first to drop the stay at home order. In the week Georgia re-opened, they had 250 cases. Last week? 26,197 new cases–105 TIMES the week of re-opening. Great job there! To a very large extent Trump and his minions have brought this upon us.
And if you are all excited about the “small” death rate, just give it another month of so, and then we’ll talk. Of course 140,500 deaths don’t seem “small” to me. I am appalled and horrified.
They did, relatively. They did the best they could with what they had. Cuomo was straight with the people and didn’t make nonsensical statements or say it “would just go away” or recommend drinking bleach.
And yes, Sweden has done well compared to the US, but NOT to its neighbors. Comparing Sweden to Arizona is like comparing apples to oranges. Compare Sweden to Norway, Finland, or Denmark. All of these countries–they all had lockdowns–did substantially better than Sweden in terms of cases and in terms of deaths. Sweden didn’t lockdown, and they paid the price. The only thing they had going for them was that their citizens for the most part believe in science and common sense.
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Zzyzx_Road
Guest
These were the states that ordered the release of Covid-19 positive patients back into their original care facilities. Cuomo wrote that famous order on March 25. When everyone knew by mid-March of the disproportionate effect Covid-19 had on the elderly in care facilities. We knew this via Kirkland, WA in February and via Italy in February to early March. Both were blasted all over the media.
The Javits Convention Center was set up as a temporary field hospital; there was another one set up in Flushing, iirc; there was a hospital ship anchored nearby. All were intended to take the workload off of NY hospitals. They could have been used to take the senior Covid-19 patients until they tested negative before returning them to their homes. But they were seldom used. Think Javits only took 20 patients, if that, before the operation was closed down. The Flushing field hospital took no patients at all and the hospital ship, only a few.
This is why though FL cases will catch up to NY cases, FL’s death toll continues to look way better than NY’s death toll.
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Zzyzx_Road
Guest
All those countries have done is delay the reckoning. And wreck their economies along the way. They will pay Sweden’s price eventually, there is no avoiding it. Sweden is at least firmly out the other side with a functional economy. Something that can’t be said for any of their neighbors.
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1cthlctrth
Guest
Science has proven that the schools should have been open the entire time:
CDC data from February 1 to July 8 indicate the following number of COVID-19 deaths by age group:
under age 1: 9
ages 1-4: 7
ages 5-14: 14
Only 30 deaths of children under age 15 that were in any way related to COVID-19.
I’m hoping that all Governors choose science over fiction.
CDC data from February 1 to July 8 indicate the following number of COVID-19 deaths by age group:
under age 1: 9
ages 1-4: 7
ages 5-14: 14
Only 30 deaths of children under age 15 that were in any way related to COVID-19.
I’m hoping that all Governors choose science over fiction.
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whatistrue
Guest
And how many would there have been if the students (and let’s not forget he teachers, who would be in the same rooms with them) had been in school? I suggest it would have been multiple orders of magnitude greater. By the way, how about you have to pick the 30 to die; does that change your mind at all?
I am in fervent agreement with that. They should look at the actual science rather than the fiction being touted above.
LeafByNiggle
Well-known member
The data may be scientific, but the analysis is not. If schools had been opened all the time we may not have seen that many deaths of children, but we would have seen a lot more deaths of others as the very act of schooling brings people together in close proximity without protection and spreads the virus to the rest of the community. It would have been a lot worse than sending 4500 old recovered covid patients to nursing homes.
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jeannetherese
Guest
I’m not sure that those patients, sent to the nursing homes were recovered, Leaf. Do you have information on that that could be shared?
Thanks,
jt
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Erikaspirit16
Guest
Wow. Just Wow.
Talk about missing the point! The point is NOT the number of children who will die. The point is how many teachers, custodians, secretaries, bus drivers, lunch ladies, etc. will die. And then there are the older brothers and sisters, the mothers, the fathers, their friends, the grandparents…should I go on?
The point is that children may not die, but they get infected (remember, one study says up to 40% of cases are asymptomatic!) and they can transmit the disease.
There was a recent case of a summer camp in Arkansas that took all sorts of precautions, including quarantine before coming to the camp. Result? After 82 (!) cases, they had to send everyone home. How the Christian summer camp Kanakuk ended up with 82 cases of COVID.
Now multiply that by all the schools in the US. How many cases are enough? 100 million? How many deaths are enough? 1 million? 2 million? Pick a number. That’s not to say that some schools shouldn’t open–some rural counties only have a handful of cases. Great. Open the schools and take basic precautions. NY, Chicago, LA, Houston, Miami? You’ve got to be kidding. Counties in between thousands of cases and a handful? Better safe than sorry, but I’d leave it to the school board or governor.
Talk about missing the point! The point is NOT the number of children who will die. The point is how many teachers, custodians, secretaries, bus drivers, lunch ladies, etc. will die. And then there are the older brothers and sisters, the mothers, the fathers, their friends, the grandparents…should I go on?
The point is that children may not die, but they get infected (remember, one study says up to 40% of cases are asymptomatic!) and they can transmit the disease.
There was a recent case of a summer camp in Arkansas that took all sorts of precautions, including quarantine before coming to the camp. Result? After 82 (!) cases, they had to send everyone home. How the Christian summer camp Kanakuk ended up with 82 cases of COVID.
Now multiply that by all the schools in the US. How many cases are enough? 100 million? How many deaths are enough? 1 million? 2 million? Pick a number. That’s not to say that some schools shouldn’t open–some rural counties only have a handful of cases. Great. Open the schools and take basic precautions. NY, Chicago, LA, Houston, Miami? You’ve got to be kidding. Counties in between thousands of cases and a handful? Better safe than sorry, but I’d leave it to the school board or governor.
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Erikaspirit16
Guest
Again, WOW. Misinformation, anyone? The internet is a wonderful tool–I invite you to spend some time investigating actual facts.
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The graph is from early July. See Sweden? Up there with the US in numbers of deaths per million people? See Denmark and Finland? Way, way, way down there?
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Nordics - Statistics & Facts | Statista breaks it down by country–Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland. If you bother to take a look, you can see all the other Nordic countries have levelled off, both in new cases and deaths. It’s under control. Sweden? Up, up and away. Both cases and deaths continue to increase. No leveling off.
The economy? “Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5 percent this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3 percent. This is more or less how damage caused by the pandemic has played out in Denmark, where the central bank expects that the economy will shrink 4.1 percent this year.” Sweden's Covid Experiment is Now a Certified Failure - Mish Talk - Global Economic Trend Analysis So not only did Sweden strike out in the covid-19 department, it struck out in the economic growth department! -4.1% for Denmark, -4.5% for Sweden. Sorry, that’s a big failure.
The article linked above is entitled “Sweden’s Covid Experiment is Now a Certified Failure” dated. July 7. Let me quote some more: “More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.”
Conclusion? Lockdowns work–both for the economy and for health. Sweden’s strategy of business as usual failed, big time.
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Zzyzx_Road
Guest
So you don’t like the deaths per million chart I put into post 623?
There’s a better chart of Sweden here from Worldometers. Guess you won’t like this chart either.
The NY Times does not have a separate country page for Sweden, but if you take a look at this page and hover your mouse over Sweden, you’ll see that its 14 day trend is clearly going down. The Worldometers chart shows that as well. But I guess that doesn’t fit your narrative either.
I"ll kindly point out that the US is marked the darkest shade of red as are Brazil and a few other countries. Sweden? Not any shade of red. Deaths have dropped to the low single digits there. Cases are decidedly below the level they were from April to the end of June.
The point is Sweden has already made it out to the other side and will likely not experience any more big spikes while none of the other countries have with the possible exception of Italy. A few other European countries are even trending flat to somewhat higher. Spain is trending up pretty good now even though they’re very locked down there.
There’s a better chart of Sweden here from Worldometers. Guess you won’t like this chart either.
The NY Times does not have a separate country page for Sweden, but if you take a look at this page and hover your mouse over Sweden, you’ll see that its 14 day trend is clearly going down. The Worldometers chart shows that as well. But I guess that doesn’t fit your narrative either.
I"ll kindly point out that the US is marked the darkest shade of red as are Brazil and a few other countries. Sweden? Not any shade of red. Deaths have dropped to the low single digits there. Cases are decidedly below the level they were from April to the end of June.
The point is Sweden has already made it out to the other side and will likely not experience any more big spikes while none of the other countries have with the possible exception of Italy. A few other European countries are even trending flat to somewhat higher. Spain is trending up pretty good now even though they’re very locked down there.
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Erikaspirit16
Guest
Apples and oranges. There is no doubt that a total abdication of leadership in the US, Brazil, Russia and many other countries has led to uncontrollable outbreaks. But that’s not Sweden. We need to compare Sweden to its neighbors, all of whom had a lockdown period:
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As you can it’s beginning to level off. But look at its neighbors:
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Finland has been flat since the end of May.
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Norway–tiny increases.
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Almost flat from early June on.
No, it’s a perfectly beautiful chart comparing apples to potatoes and onions. Please compare Sweden to its neighbors–similar climate, geography, culture, population, demographics, etc.
None of us can predict the future, not even me or you. But to say “Sweden has already made it out to the other side” is absurd, esp. if you compare it to its neighbors, who are ALL doing significatnly better.
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Zzyzx_Road
Guest
And they will all have to remain locked down to continue with those pretty numbers. In the long run, they’ll all catch up to Sweden, they’re just taking the slow, economy dumping route about it.
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Erikaspirit16
Guest
OK, I’ll tackle this post in separate sections. Let’s say you’re a general, and you say, I need 1,000 tanks. And you get 1,000 tanks but only use 8,000 because the enemy wasn’t as powerful as you thought. Are you an idiot? No, you’re cautious. What if you said “I need 6,000 tanks,” and you were defeated. You would be an idiot.
Cuomo looked at the evidence at the time–esp. Italy and Spain, listened to his advisors and asked for emergency beds. Could he predict the future? No, he had to estimate. He was wrong, he overestimated. But what would be worse? Underestimating would have been far worse–hospitals could have been totally overwhelmed, deaths could have been many times worse, etc. He was cautious. That’s a good thing.
But lets compare cases and deaths in Florida and NY–
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Florida has had more than 10,000 new cases for 10 of the last 11 days–the the exception was 9,194.
How about Florida deaths? Florida never had more than 100 deaths until July 9. Since then it has had over 100 deaths a day 4 times and over 90 a day 4 more times.
New York–
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From May 27 on they have always had fewer than 1,000 cases a day.
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From May 21, they have always had fewer than 80 deaths a day.
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Erikaspirit16
Guest
Where do you get your “information”?
Denmark ended its lockdown back in May, two moths ago. Fast in, first out: Denmark leads lockdown exit | Reuters
Norway began easing restrictions in April–Norway to ease curbs 'little by little' after coronavirus lockdown - PM | Health
Finland started easing restrictions in late May–Restaurants and theatres to reopen in Finland, as Europe continues to ease lockdown
Denmark ended its lockdown back in May, two moths ago. Fast in, first out: Denmark leads lockdown exit | Reuters
Norway began easing restrictions in April–Norway to ease curbs 'little by little' after coronavirus lockdown - PM | Health
Finland started easing restrictions in late May–Restaurants and theatres to reopen in Finland, as Europe continues to ease lockdown
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1cthlctrth
Guest
Several countries have conducted studies that have not found material child-to-adult transmission : Australia, Canada, China, France, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom.
Klara M. Posfay-Barbe, M.D., of University of Geneva’s medical school studied the households of 39 Swiss children infected with Covid-19. Contract tracing revealed that in only three (8%) was a child the suspected index case, with symptom onset preceding illness in adult household contacts.
In a French study, a boy with Covid-19 exposed over 80 classmates at three schools to the disease. None contracted it. Transmission of other respiratory diseases, including influenza transmission, was common at the schools.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?articleTools=true
Iceland: Researchers sequenced all the genomes from samples of every positive case and tracked the mutation patterns. They concluded that “ even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents. ”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows
School kids don’t appear to transmit the new coronavirus to peers or teachers, a French study found, weighing in on the crucial topic of children’s role in propagating Covid-19.
Scientists at Institut Pasteur studied 1,340 people in Crepy-en-Valois, northeast of Paris that suffered an outbreak in February and March, including 510 students from six primary schools. They found three probable cases among kids that didn’t lead to more infections among other pupils or teachers.
The study by the University of Dresden tested more than 2,000 schoolchildren and teachers for antibodies since the reopening of schools in Germany in the spring.
The study found no evidence of widespread virus transmission. Antibodies were detected in only twelve of the 2,045 people examined. That’s not much more than at the beginning of the pandemic in March, meaning that very few schoolchildren caught the disease.
Instead of fears that schools would become hotspots for transmission, “It is rather the opposite,” said study director Reinhard Berner, director of the polyclinic for children and adolescent medicine at the Dresden University Hospital. “ Children act more like a brake on the infection . Not every infection that reaches them is passed on.”
Antibodies were also not found to be above average in the teachers at the facilities.
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1cthlctrth
Guest
So, if you would be in favor of keeping schools shut down because of coronavirus, then I presume you would be in favor of shutting schools down every year during flu season:
(Flu & Young Children | CDC)
Since 2004-2005, flu-related deaths in children reported to CDC during regular flu seasons have ranged from 37 to 187 deaths or more.
https://www.conservativereview.com/...onsistent-wed-close-schools-every-flu-season/
Children barely contribute to community spread of COVID-19. On the other hand, with the flu, children contribute substantially to the spread and pick it up most often from other kids in school.
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