gelsbern:
I am working on digging up statistics for you but around the world the attendance in Catholic Churches has fallen dramatically since Vatican II.
As an example, in Australia attendance has dropped from 70% attending pre-Vatican II to 50% attending in the 70’s down to 20% range today.
I don’t disagree, however I am convinced that this would have happened whether or not there ever was a Vatican II.
Please believe me when I say that I am not arguing against your idea as much as sharing another take on it. There is a lot of validity to what you say.
We have seen a major cultural shift in the western-oriented societies, we have entered a sceptical age that is overwhelming all religious traditions. This is probably as big or bigger a reason for the decline.
Anyway I am trying to find unbiased statistics and it is proving difficult. I do believe however that attendance at Traditional Mass is growing, unfortunately without the data, I can’t honestly correlate it to anything specific, but the the fact that attendance to normative modern Mass is declining says something.
I think that there is a phenomenon I would call a magnet model: if you make one out of many parishes a model with some quality particularly unique, it will draw individuals from well beyond the normal bounds from a self selected group.
So I would say that statistically it could look like impressive growth, but if it draws people from other parishes the results can be deceiving. In other words, what would be the net result if the number of parishes with traditional mass suddenly doubled? The opportunities for this self-selected group would be more varied and statistically it could look like a decline in some places. The eastern Catholic parishes in the USA have this problem, if the parishes are too close together they are competing with each other for a self-limiting pool of believers.
The huge numbers are not as huge as they used to be, and I know of several converts to Catholicism who spent time with the normative modern Mass and moved on after they discovered the traditional Mass. Many pope warned against modernism, and their warnings are proving to be true. So either the Popes that warned against modernism were right, or you are. You decide.
This is also a phenomenon we encounter in eastern churches, Catholic and Orthodox: converts are attrracted to the liturgy and parctices and eventually become familiar enough to feel the novelty has worn off and a kind of disatisfaction ensues. Individuals start looking for that fresh-convert enthusiasm and find it in another tradition. They feed off of it from one parish to another and jurisdiction to another!
I have seen people who start out Presbyterian or Baptist, go through Lutheranism or Anglicanism, become Roman Catholics, then Traditionalists, then SSPX and finally jump to Byzantine Catholicism or even Orthodoxy! Some converts to Orthodoxy go from Greek or Antiochian to ROCOR, then ROAC all in pursuit of this Holy Grail of religious practice.
So I am not surprised the traditionalism is attractive to converts, one must guard against making the leap for the wrong reasons or we make the leap again and again.