The issue is more complex than this. You have to take into account the number of people who will choose not to abstain because they feel using a condom is an acceptable option, but who would abstain if they did not believe this. These people harm their soul as well as risking their lives. You then have to weigh this against the number of people who do not abstain, but do not use condoms because of the Church (most likely, very few people if any) - these people have already endangered their soul, and without condoms have an increased risk to their physical health. People who are promiscuous and do not use condoms because it “doesn’t feel as good” are not going to be affected either way by the Church’s teaching, and therefore their infection rates cannot be blamed on the church.
The only other group to consider would be the partner of an unfaithful spouse. If she knows he is unfaithful, the Church does not forbid her to withold sex, or if he would force it on her, does not forbid seperation. Those who would hand a condom to a woman whose husband would cheat on her, rape her and place her life at risk are putting a band-aid on a deep wound, as are those who purport to “help” a women forced by poverty into prostitution by encouraging her or her clients to use condoms. Giving these women an opportunity to do legitimate work and free themselves from these degrading circumstances, and the support in making the transition to self-sufficiency, would truly be compassionate and helpful.