Why you should think that the Natural-Evolution of species is true

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Glark said:
Do I have to provide mathematical calculations in order for you to believe me?
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In this case, yes. I need to see how you have included chemistry, natural selection, alternate working sequences etc. in your calculations. All those factors may be relevant.

rossum
 
Glark said:
Biology for Space Cadets … Speaking of which, billions of dollars are being spent on looking for Little Green Men on other planets. 😂
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Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial {\em ex ante} probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it. This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe.

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arxiv.org
 
rossum said:
In this case, yes. I need to see how you have included chemistry, natural selection, alternate working sequences etc. in your calculations. All those factors may be relevant
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Okay, just say I did my calculations and came up with one in 10^51. According to your criteria, does this indicate possible or impossible? I assume you have a cut-off number between possible and impossible, otherwise it would be pointless for you to ask for a calculation in the first place.

Furthermore, if you have such a cut-off number, please show me how you arrived at it.
 
Glark said:
just say I did my calculations and came up with one in 10^51. According to your criteria, does this indicate possible or impossible?
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Quite obviously, odds of 1:10^51, or odds of 1:10^510, indicate that something is possible. The term ‘impossible’ does not mean that something is very unlikely, not even vanishingly unlikely. There is a qualitative, not a quantitative difference between possible and impossible.

What’s more, however remote the odds, that does not preclude the unlikely occurrence happening on the first possible occasion. It is not always necessary to throw a dice six times to get a six. It may occur on the first throw.
 
Glark said:
Okay, just say I did my calculations …
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There are an infinite number of numbers. That gives us infinite time to speculate on what the answer to your calculations might, or might not, be. Since I do not have an infinite amount of time to spare I will wait to see your specific calculations.

To assist you, here is one I prepared earlier. This includes the effects of random mutation and natural selection, though not chemistry: The Evolution of Boojumase.

rossum
 
Sadly, this wonderful story will be completely lost on people who can barely count to ten…
 
Unfortunately for those who can, the simple reality of creation can be lost in the confusion that all those numbers can create, dancing to the tune of whimsical hypotheticals.

The proof is in the pudding. We have been losing species at an alarming rate. Those creatures that find a place within the human environment that has entrenched itself on earth are surviving as a demonstration of how epigenetics, built into organisms, functions to promote diversity and harmony within an environment.
 
Hugh_Farey said:
What’s more, however remote the odds, that does not preclude the unlikely occurrence happening on the first possible occasion. It is not always necessary to throw a dice six times to get a six. It may occur on the first throw.
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The odds are constrained by your specified and designed experiment.
 
buffalo said:
The odds are constrained by your specified and designed experiment.
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So what? It doesn’t matter what the experiment is, or whether there are any constraints. If there are odds at all, then the outcome is possible.
 
The term “impossible odds” is true. When the odds exceed a certain number, that’s it.
 
The idea of impossible odds comes up as a thought that accompanies a sense of wonder over something in the way things are. Ultimately it is related to the simple realization that things are, especially we ourselves. That feeling of awe, a mixture of joy and fear is hard to define operationally. It would seem impossible to communicate what one knows in terms that one who doesn’t, may be able to understand. So we talk about odds, hoping that mathematically oriented persons may get a hint of the message. I’ve heard arguments about the miracle that is the eye brought forth as evidence for intelligent design, only to result in a series of rebuttals outlining all its deficiencies. Interestingly, it is the deficiencies, the nonbeing that surrounds us that tunes us in to what is. Having been blind at one point and my vision partially returned, John 9:3 rings clear and true: “Neither this man nor his parents sinned,” said Jesus, “but this happened so that the works of God might be displayed in him.” To speak about the odds that material substances come together to produce the informational pathways of cells and their molecular components, resulting in the shapes and colours that comprise the visual world is probably the worst way to present the miracle of life, but it seems all we have in communicating with some people.
 
To a physicist like me, life looks to be a little short of magic: all those dumb molecules conspiring to achieve such clever things! How do they do it? There is no orchestrator, no choreographer directing the performance, no esprit de corps, no collective will, no life force – just mindless atoms pushing and pulling on each other, kicked about by random thermal fluctuations. Yet the end product is an exquisite and highly distinctive form of order. Even chemists, who are familiar with the amazing transformative powers of molecules, find it breathtaking. — Paul Davies, The Eerie Silence, Astrobiology Magazine, April 15, 2010
 
There are certain circumstances and conditions where certain things will simply not happen.
 
Hugh_Farey said:
Sadly, this wonderful story will be completely lost on people who can barely count to ten…
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This is grossly unfair and uncalled for … I’m fine up to twenty (due to fingers and toes), but after that things get quite confusing and my fragile, egg-shell mind begins to complain. (How my good mate, Bradskii, managed to count to 400 (!!) is totally beyond me, so I tend not to believe him.)
 
Hugh_Farey said:
If there are odds at all, then the outcome is possible.
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Is it a realistic possibility that you will win the lottery every day of your life, or even ten times in a row? Somewhere along the line, common sense has to kick in and fantasy has to be kicked out.
 
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