Will the United States nuke Iran?

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Richardols:
Yes. There was a long piece in my local newspaper a Sunday or two ago, saying that making a nuclear device is easily within the capability of any graduate student.

What is still impossible for you local insurgent cell is to produce the fissionable material. That has to be stolen or obtained clandestinely. It’s beyond the capability of even a university level laboratory to produce.
Thank you for point out that it’s one thing to write a paper, another to actually build the device.

Building a nuclear device is beyond the capability of all but nations. Therefore rogue nations must be prevented from doing that.
 
vern humphrey:
Thank you for point out that it’s one thing to write a paper, another to actually build the device.

Building a nuclear device is beyond the capability of all but nations. .
Not at all, based on my reading. If the fissionable material is available, construction of the explosive device is within the capability of graduate level physicists.

If fissionable material is not available, producing it is indeed beyond the capability of all but nations.
 
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Richardols:
Not at all, based on my reading. If the fissionable material is available, construction of the explosive device is within the capability of graduate level physicists.
Have you ever tried to make a klytron on your kitchen table?http://forums.catholic-questions.org/images/icons/icon12.gif

How about precisely machining slugs of plutonium to critical mass?

The actual production of a nuclear device, even if you have fissionable material available, requires equipment and devices that are not within the capability of even a graduate level physics student.
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Richardols:
If fissionable material is not available, producing it is indeed beyond the capability of all but nations.
Building a nuclear device is beyond the capability of all but nations. Therefore rogue nations must be prevented from doing that.
 
vern humphrey:
As virtually everyone admits, MAD has worked. Nuclear weapons have been available to both sides for some 55 years, and we have managed to avoid nuclear war – something no one would have thought possible in the early '50s.

The nuclear paradox is that to prevent nuclear weapons from being used, we must be prepared to use them.
It worked. But barely. And I mean barely.

If you haven’t seen it, check out a documentary called “The Fog of War.” It’s basically an extended interview with Robert S. MacNamara, who was the Secretary of Defense during the Kennedy and part of the Johnson administrations.

The section on the Cuban Missile Crisis is quite an eye-opener. MacNamara was one of the guys in the room when they were deciding whether to kick off a full-scale thermonuclear war with the Soviet Union.

A quote:
I want to say, and this is very important: at the end we lucked out. It was luck that prevented nuclear war. We came that close to nuclear war at the end. (Holding his fingers half a centimeter apart.) Rational individuals: Kennedy was rational; Khrushchev was rational; Castro was rational. Rational individuals came that close to total destruction of their societies. And that danger exists today.
The major lesson of the Cuban missile crisis is this: the indefinite combination of human fallibility and nuclear weapons will destroy nations. Is it right and proper that today there are 7500 strategic offensive nuclear warheads, of which 2500 are on 15 minute alert, to be launched by the decision of one human being?
It wasn’t until January, 1992, in a meeting chaired by Castro in Havana, Cuba, that I learned 162 nuclear warheads, including 90 tactical warheads, were on the island at the time of this critical moment of the crisis. I couldn’t believe what I was hearing, and Castro got very angry with me because I said, “Mr. President, let’s stop this meeting. This is totally new to me, I’m not sure I got the translation right.”
“Mr. President, I have three questions to you. Number one: did you know the nuclear warheads were there? Number two: if you did, would you have recommended to Khrushchev in the face of an U.S. attack that he use them? Number three: if he had used them, what would have happened to Cuba?”
He said, “Number one, I knew they were there. Number two, I would not have recommended to Khrushchev, I did recommend to Khrushchev that they be used. Number three, ‘What would have happened to Cuba?’ It would have been totally destroyed.”
That’s how close we were.
Mutually Assured Destruction is a good idea, but we shouldn’t take the impossibility of nuclear war for granted – and the more cavalier we get about their use, the more likely it becomes.

Small tactical nukes are a particular worry, because they inherently include the idea that we could use nuclear weapons in a ‘standard’ war.
 
vern humphrey:
Have you ever tried to make a klytron on your kitchen table?http://forums.catholic-questions.org/images/icons/icon12.gif

How about precisely machining slugs of plutonium to critical mass?

The actual production of a nuclear device, even if you have fissionable material available, requires equipment and devices that are not within the capability of even a graduate level physics student.

Building a nuclear device is beyond the capability of all but nations. Therefore rogue nations must be prevented from doing that.
You don’t need a nation to build nuclear weapons. My grand-dad designed nuclear weapons for the government off and on during his 31 years with Union Carbide at Oak Ridge, TN. He told me that at one point in the late seventies (a few years before he retired), that they pulled together a few engineers that had built hydrogen bombs during the 50’s (my granddad one of them) plus some new engineers and asked them to make a nuke with the minimal amount of equipment. With their knowledge, just a handful built a nuke with the same if not less equipment that what the Univ. of Tenn. had in their engineering labs. The only material/equipment they used that couldn’t be found at such a lab was the fissible material.
 
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SamCA:
It worked. But barely. And I mean barely.
We have a saying in the Infantry, “If it’sstupid and it works, it isn’t stupid.”

MAD worked.
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SamCA:
If you haven’t seen it, check out a documentary called “The Fog of War.” It’s basically an extended interview with Robert S. MacNamara, who was the Secretary of Defense during the Kennedy and part of the Johnson administrations.
I know very well who MacNamara was – I went through the whole Viet Nam war.

MacNamara is the brilliant strategist (and that’s sarcasm) who was behind “gradual escallation.”
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SamCA:
Mutually Assured Destruction is a good idea, but we shouldn’t take the impossibility of nuclear war for granted – and the more cavalier we get about their use, the more likely it becomes.
We neither take it for granted, nor do we consider nuclear war an impossibility.

In fact, we consider it a great danger – which is why we must update our strategy in keeping with a thorough understanding of the nuclear paradox.
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SamCA:
Small tactical nukes are a particular worry, because they inherently include the idea that we could use nuclear weapons in a ‘standard’ war.
Around 1964, I was the weapons platoon leader of a mechanized infantry battalion. Among the weapons I had were two Davy Crocketts – recoilless rifles that fired a bulbous tactical nuclear warhead.

Tactical nuclear weapons have been around for a loooooong time, and are part of MAD.
 
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wabrams:
You don’t need a nation to build nuclear weapons. My grand-dad designed nuclear weapons for the government off and on during his 31 years with Union Carbide at Oak Ridge, TN. He told me that at one point in the late seventies (a few years before he retired), that they pulled together a few engineers that had built hydrogen bombs during the 50’s (my granddad one of them) plus some new engineers and asked them to make a nuke with the minimal amount of equipment. With their knowledge, just a handful built a nuke with the same if not less equipment that what the Univ. of Tenn. had in their engineering labs. The only material/equipment they used that couldn’t be found at such a lab was the fissible material.
Pardon me if I don’t consider that a definitive cite.

If a group of private citizens built a nuclear device on a lark, even if they didn’t have fissionable material, they’d still be in prison!

Your grand-dad couldn’t make klytrons, not even with all the facilities of the University of Tennessee. And that’s just the beginning of what they couldn’t do.
 
vern humphrey:
Pardon me if I don’t consider that a definitive cite.

If a group of private citizens built a nuclear device on a lark, even if they didn’t have fissionable material, they’d still be in prison!

Your grand-dad couldn’t make klytrons, not even with all the facilities of the University of Tennessee. And that’s just the beginning of what they couldn’t do.
So you’re calling my granddad a liar?

BTW, don’t you mean klystrons? You know, the microwave amplifiers used in radar and tv stations to broadcast their signals. The only reason, to my knowledge, that you would use a klystron in a weapon is to make a electro-magnetic bomb.
 
vern humphrey:
We have a saying in the Infantry, “If it’sstupid and it works, it isn’t stupid.”

MAD worked.
So far. And it has come within a hair’s breadth of failure on many occasions, the Cuban Missile Crisis being only the most famous. We’ve nearly had World War III because of geese on a radar screen.

“It hasn’t failed yet” isn’t good enough when a single failure could end all human life.
I know very well who MacNamara was – I went through the whole Viet Nam war.

MacNamara is the brilliant strategist (and that’s sarcasm) who was behind “gradual escallation.”
To MacNamara’s credit, he’s pretty open about his mistakes and failures in “The Fog of War.” The whole thing starts with him saying, “Any military commander who is honest with himself, or with those he’s speaking to, will admit that he has made mistakes in the application of military power. He’s killed people unnecessarily — his own troops or other troops — through mistakes, through errors of judgment. A hundred, or thousands, or tens of thousands, maybe even a hundred thousand.”
We neither take it for granted, nor do we consider nuclear war an impossibility.

In fact, we consider it a great danger – which is why we must update our strategy in keeping with a thorough understanding of the nuclear paradox.
But don’t you think the Cold War formulation might be outdated in a world where rather than fairly monolithic nuclear superpowers in opposition to each other, nuclear weapons are slowly dribbling out of the USSR and into the hands of individuals rather than nation-states? MAD is one thing when you’re dealing with rational leaders of an opposing nation. It’s something else when you’re dealing with an unknown number of bombs in the hands of an unknown number of unknown individuals who may be quite willing to destroy themselves to destroy us.
Around 1964, I was the weapons platoon leader of a mechanized infantry battalion. Among the weapons I had were two Davy Crocketts – recoilless rifles that fired a bulbous tactical nuclear warhead.

Tactical nuclear weapons have been around for a loooooong time, and are part of MAD.
I honestly wasn’t aware that tac-nukes went back that far; thanks for teaching me something new.

Just how small are the explosions of these weapons? And are they the same types of things the article in question is talking about?
 
vern humphrey:
If a group of private citizens built a nuclear device on a lark, even if they didn’t have fissionable material, they’d still be in prison!
BTW, I don’t think you can consider nuclear engineers, who are employed by the government and asked to do a task for the government, as private citizens building a nuke for fun.
 
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SamCA:
Just how small are the explosions of these weapons? And are they the same types of things the article in question is talking about?
They had a variantion to the yield, equivalant in the range of 10 to 250 tons of TNT. The blast range was between 150 meters and 500 meters.
 
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wabrams:
So you’re calling my granddad a liar?
Your granddad didn’t post on this thread, now did he?http://forums.catholic-questions.org/images/icons/icon12.gif
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wabrams:
BTW, don’t you mean klystrons? You know, the microwave amplifiers used in radar and tv stations to broadcast their signals. The only reason, to my knowledge, that you would use a klystron in a weapon is to make a electro-magnetic bomb.
You mean your granddad didn’t tell you?http://forums.catholic-questions.org/images/icons/icon12.gif
 
vern humphrey:
Your granddad didn’t post on this thread, now did he?http://forums.catholic-questions.org/images/icons/icon12.gif
That would be kinda hard since he died in March.

So I guess you’re calling me a liar.
vern humphrey:
Yeah, sure, whatever you say. I guess you’ll tell us next that at some point in your career in the military you designed nuclear weapons.
 
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wabrams:
That would be kinda hard since he died in March.

So I guess you’re calling me a liar.
You have to admit it’s not a very believeable story.
 
vern humphrey:
You have to admit it’s not a very believeable story.
Neither is half the stuff you type, but you don’t see me making accusations. I have to admit, I’d take the word of a nuclear engineer (family or not) who designed the things all through the 50’s and off & on during the 60’s and 70’s, over someone who’s invlovement w/ them involved deploying 2 tactical nukes on a platoon level.
 
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wabrams:
Neither is half the stuff you type, but you don’t see me making accusations. I have to admit, I’d take the word of a nuclear engineer (family or not) who designed the things all through the 50’s and off & on during the 60’s and 70’s, over someone who’s invlovement w/ them involved deploying 2 tactical nukes on a platoon level.
I think most people would say that “My granddad said such-and-such” isn’t a genuine cite. Not to be unkind, but grand children often get granddad’s stories confused.

I’ve had more duties associated with nuclear weapons than just as a weapons platoon leader. And, as I say, I can call upon friends who are Prefix 5s.
 
vern humphrey:
I think most people would say that “My granddad said such-and-such” isn’t a genuine cite. Not to be unkind, but grand children often get granddad’s stories confused.
Well I guess some of your third person stories don’t count as cites either, but to hear you tell it it’s the Gospel truth and no one on these forums should question it. I’m sure you’ve gotten some of your stories mixed up, like when Col. so and so said this and General so and so said that.
vern humphrey:
I’ve had more duties associated with nuclear weapons than just as a weapons platoon leader.
Why don’t you share some of your stories?
vern humphrey:
And, as I say, I can call upon friends who are Prefix 5s.
Haven’t ever heard you say that, but I knew you would say something like that. So why don’t you call them up sometime and ask them about my granddad. PM me and I’ll give you his last name and when he worked at Oak Ridge. Don’t worry, the last name isn’t very common.
 
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wabrams:
Well I guess some of your third person stories don’t count as cites either, but to hear you tell it it’s the Gospel truth and no one on these forums should question it. I’m sure you’ve gotten some of your stories mixed up, like when Col. so and so said this and General so and so said that.
Pardon me, but you seemed determined to turn this into something personal.

There’s no point in doing that. It adds nothing to the debate.
 
vern humphrey:
Pardon me, but you seemed determined to turn this into something personal.

There’s no point in doing that. It adds nothing to the debate.
I haven’t tried to make it personal. I’m just pointing out how you always seem to know sooo much more than everyone else and try to make yourself look like an expert on every subject. Then, on this thread, you’ve all but called me a liar because I recalled a story told to me by my grandfather, who I will add never spoke about his work as an engineer until the last 9 or 10 years before he died. There are somethings I’m sure he took to his grave that he couldn’t ever talk about. All you did was provide me the right time to finally point it out.

So since you’ve done sooooo much w/ nuclear weapons and nuclear power, why don’t you tell us all what you’ve done? You mentioned you did more than deploy 2 nukes on the platoon level, now please share your stories with us.
 
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