World's climate warming faster than feared, scientists say

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Pretty speculative assertions in those.
Seems ridiculous to quote myself. I should have added, however, that at least the first article acknowledges that a broad range of energy resources should be utilized. It even gives a nod to coal, which it should. I have been more than a little concerned about Obama’s seeming policy of “bankrupting the coal industry” as he promised to do, premised on ever-greater reliance on natural gas as a replacement; a later addition to his “no more coal” doctrine.

Well, I think we probably have a better handle on the extent of coal reserves than we do of natural gas, and while fracking seems very promising, one really questions the wisdom of shutting down coal supplies. Some of that might be difficult or impossible to put into production again. Abandoned mines flood, tunnels collapse, sometimes fires get started and nobody puts them out. Nobody seriously questions that coal reserves are sufficient to last far into the future; perhaps 100 years or more.

Focusing on a single energy source seems a great mistake to me, no matter what it is.
 
As the planet marked its fourth hottest year on record, a study published in the journal *Nature *found increasing levels of carbon dioxide will lead to thinner ocean clouds and reduce their cooling impact, causing temperature rises of at least 5.6F (3C) over the course of the century.

The team of scientists said the findings show some climate models have been too “optimistic” and previous estimates of a minimum temperature rise of only 2.7F (1.5C) could now be discounted. The optimistic models did not properly assess the impact of water evaporation, which sometimes rises only a short distance into the atmosphere and causes updraughts that reduce cloud cover, the study found.

”These models have been predicting a lower climate sensitivity but we believe they’re incorrect,” Professor Steven Sherwood, from the University of New South Wales, told The Sydney Morning Herald.

telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10546128/Worlds-climate-warming-faster-than-feared-scientists-say.html
Hey gilliam, I’m not necessarily sure I should have quoted your comment, except for the fact that I found the Telegraph article interesting and because I am curious about your opinion on this:
arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/global-extinction-within-one-human.html
This is easily the most hysterical and terrifying article I’ve come across having to do with climate change. So, is there some sort of middle ground between US energy corporations saying it’s all a myth and earnest scientists everywhere else on Earth? If this article is accurate I may as well start looking at real estate in Antarctica and bidding everyone on CAF a fond farewell…
:coffee:
 
Hey gilliam, I’m not necessarily sure I should have quoted your comment, except for the fact that I found the Telegraph article interesting and because I am curious about your opinion on this:
arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/global-extinction-within-one-human.html
This is easily the most hysterical and terrifying article I’ve come across having to do with climate change. So, is there some sort of middle ground between US energy corporations saying it’s all a myth and earnest scientists everywhere else on Earth? If this article is accurate I may as well start looking at real estate in Antarctica and bidding everyone on CAF a fond farewell…
:coffee:
There are plenty of scientists on both sides of the issue. A lot of folks have looked at the
“97% of scientists agree” claim and disputed it. Well, it’s true-ish if you limit which scientists opinions you accept and which ones you exclude and twist the numbers a bit. And then realize it was limited to 79 people.

The oft quoted figure is the result of a nine question survey, with two primary questions regarding climate change. Like most surveys, a lot about the answer depended on how you interpreted the question vice being limited, directed questions with closely defined terms.

icecap.us/images/uploads/NinteySevenpercentnotwhatyouthink1.28.12.pdf

…
The 97% figure from the survey comes from a whittling down of the accepted number of
responses from 3,146 to 79 ( styrg comment- the survey was sent to 10,000 ‘scientists’ which isn’t really a closely defined term, 3,146 responded). The 79 scientist are those that said they have recently published 50% of their papers in the area of climate change. Of these, 76 of 79 answered “risen” to questions one (96.2%). How this number is not 100% is very strange. As to question two 75 of 77 answered “yes” (97.4%). As I have shown above this response does not necessarily mean that the respondent was attributing the significant human activity to the use of fossil fuels. Additionally a “yes” response does not quantify the degree of significance that human activity has on climate change. This can range significantly from person to person. It is interesting that of the 36 meteorologists who responded to question number two, only 23 of 36 or 64% thought that human activity was a “significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures”. The authors dismiss this group of trained atmospheric scientists outright even though their size is almost half of the 79 climate scientists used in generating the 97% figure! Apparently the 64% number was not convincing enough. If the authors of the survey had combined the results of the meteorologists and the climate scientists the “yes” response to question two would have been 98 out of 113 or 87%. That number just doesn’t have the same impact as 97%.

The Global Warming Petition Project has been signed by 31,487 scientist including 9,029
with PHDs in their fields. The petition states that: “There is no convincing scientific
evidence that the human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is
causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s
atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific
evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects
upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth”. It would appear that there
are many well educated people who do not agree with the survey and its 97% figure.
 
The Global Warming Petition Project has been signed by 31,487 scientist including 9,029
with PHDs in their fields. The petition states that: “There is no convincing scientific
evidence that the human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is
causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s
atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific
evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects
upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth”. It would appear that there
are many well educated people who do not agree with the survey and its 97% figure.
For a more skeptical look at that petition project, see this posting.
 
For a more skeptical look at that petition project, see this posting.
Exactly. Each study or survey has some sort of methodolgy which must be examined to understand the results.

Of course the real issue isn’t how many folks believe something – its what does the data show? Does the data support the model? Just because there is a majority of opinion doesn’t mean its correct-- either way. But it definitely is an overstatement to claim the science is settled.

It is extremely interesting that when the US established a network of ‘pristine’ sensors to counter the criticisms of inconsistent usage, varying accuracies of sensors, heat island affects, disproporationate distribution, the results after 10 years show a decrease in temperature. The heat island affect was far greater than proponents of man made global warming accounted for in their assumptions/methodology. It also calls into question, yet again, why global warming advocates discarded data from northern Russia and Canada and chose to use extrapolations instead.
 
It is extremely interesting that when the US established a network of ‘pristine’ sensors to counter the criticisms of inconsistent usage, varying accuracies of sensors, heat island affects, disproporationate distribution, the results after 10 years show a decrease in temperature.
How is that “extremely interesting”? The theory and the models were never intended to predict short-term fluctuations. I will admit it is “somewhat interesting” though.
It also calls into question, yet again, why global warming advocates discarded data from northern Russia and Canada and chose to use extrapolations instead.
Can you give me a reference so I can go and read up on that claim?
 
Hey gilliam, I’m not necessarily sure I should have quoted your comment, except for the fact that I found the Telegraph article interesting and because I am curious about your opinion on this:
arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/global-extinction-within-one-human.html
This is easily the most hysterical and terrifying article I’ve come across having to do with climate change. So, is there some sort of middle ground between US energy corporations saying it’s all a myth and earnest scientists everywhere else on Earth? If this article is accurate I may as well start looking at real estate in Antarctica and bidding everyone on CAF a fond farewell…
:coffee:
The expert scientists on this issue are much more reticent in their claims. David Archer (U of Chicago expert on GHGs), for instance, still sees CO2, not CH4 as the main threat, and over a much longer period of time. Of course CH4 does degrade into CO2+, so that is more what he’s looking at. The reason for this is CH4 has a much shorter residency in the atmosphere – about 10 years – while a portion of CO2 can last 1000s of years, up to 100,000 years.

See: realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/arctic-and-american-methane-in-context/
and realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/06/methane-game-upgrade/
In my opinion, the largest impact of all this methane will probably be to the long-term future evolution of climate. Avoiding a peak warming of 2 degrees C or more requires keeping the total emission of carbon down to less than about 1000 Gton C (Allen et al 2009). We have already burned about 300 Gton C, and cut about 200 Gton C. So maybe we’re 1/2 of the way there, say 500 Gton C left to go. The 1200 Gton C of Arctic methane hydrates and the permafrost carbon stack up pretty menacingly against our 500 Gton left to go, and the comparison is relevant even if the carbon is emitted slowly, or as CO2 rather than methane, or even if it is released into the ocean rather than into the air (it will still equilibrate with the atmosphere, after a few centuries, converging to the same “long tail” CO2 trajectory that would have resulted from atmospheric release). Arctic methane, and all that frozen soil carbon, could easily play a huge role, not so much in the near-term evolution of Earth’s climate, but in the long tail of the global warming climate event.

So it seems reality might be somewhere between the 2 extemes.

Anyway, I know David personally, so I’ll contact him about the article and see what he thinks.

Meanwhile, keep turning off those lights not in use 🙂
 
How is that “extremely interesting”? The theory and the models were never intended to predict short-term fluctuations. I will admit it is “somewhat interesting” though.

Results that are both short term and regionalized as well. Just the US.

MMGW doesn’t claim there won’t be regionalized fluctuations-- without complete data for the whole world which has undergone similar methodology in sensor placement and standardization one can’t discount there may be heating in other areas. The interesting part was comparing the disputed sensors with the new ones, it did appear that the heat island affect was greater than the MMGW models assume

Can you give me a reference so I can go and read up on that claim?

I will try and relocate the articles, unfortunately I don’t have them bookmarked or saved, but it will take me some time which I don’t have at the moment
 
It also calls into question, yet again, why global warming advocates discarded data from northern Russia and Canada and chose to use extrapolations instead.
I do know that the GISS (in the US) method of figuring arctic temps where there are no weather bouys is to extrapolate or average from the surrounding closest ones on all sides, while CRU (UK) just doesn’t add these in at all – and their global average temp results come out about the same, not significantly different.

I don’t know about what this excluding Russian and Canadian data is about, but it seems to me if the scientists suspect they are inaccurate for some reason, then the reasonable thing to do would be to extrapolate from the closest (on all sides) more accurrate data.

Doesn’t seem to be a problem or issue.
 
I do know that the GISS (in the US) method of figuring arctic temps where there are no weather bouys is to extrapolate or average from the surrounding closest ones on all sides, while CRU (UK) just doesn’t add these in at all – and their global average temp results come out about the same, not significantly different.

I don’t know about what this excluding Russian and Canadian data is about, but it seems to me if the scientists suspect they are inaccurate for some reason, then the reasonable thing to do would be to extrapolate from the closest (on all sides) more accurrate data.

Doesn’t seem to be a problem or issue.
I think I found the issue and the explanation re it at skepticalscience.com/Dropped-stations-introduce-warming-bias-intermediate.htm

The analysis shows that dropping those stations from the dataset had no impact on the results – the global average temps.

It seems to me if Joseph D’Aleo and Anthony Watts are going to make a claim that dropping those stations made a difference (showing more warming than if those stations’ data were included), they should at the very least carry thru with calculating and analyzing where that did make a difference.

Joseph D’Aleo (from desmogblog.com/joseph-d-aleo )
  • BS, MS, University of Wisconsin
  • former college professor of Meteorology at Lyndon State College.
  • Executive Director and Certified Consultant Meteorologist of the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP), an organization of climate change skeptics.
  • one of a number of climate change skeptics who receives funding from the Heartland Institute, an organization at the forefront of climate change skepticism in the U.S.
  • co-published one article on global cooling (with geologist Don Easterbrook) in the journal, Energy & Environment: “Multidecadal Tendencies in Enso and Global Temperatures Related to Multidecal Oscillations.” Energy & Environment, Volume 21, Number 5, pp. 437-460, September 2010. Republished by SPPI. According to a search of WorldCat, Energy & Environment is carried in only 25 libraries worldwide. The journal is not included in Journal Citation Reports, which lists the impact factors for the top 6000 peer-reviewed journals.

Anthony Watts (from desmogblog.com/anthony-watts )
  • studied Electrical Engineering and Meteorology at Purdue University, but unwilling to state whether he graduated.
  • former television meteorologist.
  • founder and editor of the popular Watts Up With That (WUWT), a blog that primarily publishes articles skeptical of climate change.
  • admits “I’m not a degreed climate scientist” on his WUWT profile, and his primary credential appears to be an American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval. This does not mean that Watts is “AMS Certified”… The AMS Seal of Approval is a discontinued credential that does not require a bachelor’s or higher degree in atmospheric science or meteorology.
  • speaker for & receives funding from Heartland Institute, which receives funding from ExxonMobil, the Koch Brothers and the Scaife family foundations.
  • praised the Berkeley Earth project, chaired by Richard Muller, that set out to “resolve current criticism of the former temperature analyses…” The study also evaluated Watt’s concerns about weather station locations. Muller testified before congress on March 31, 2011 where he released preliminary results showing “a global warming trend that is very similar to that previously reported by the other groups [NOAA, NASA, and the Hadley Center Climate Research Unit (CRU)s].” Muller addressed Watts’s concerns, mentioning how “Many US stations have low quality rankings according to a study led by Anthony Watts. However, we find that the warming seen in the ‘poor’ stations is virtually indistinguishable from that seen in the ‘good’ stations.” Instead of accepting the results as he promised, Watts dismissed the hearing as “post normal science political theater.”
  • Publications: one article in a peer-reviewed journal, The Journal of Geophysical Research, on the findings of the Surface Stations Project: Souleymane Fall, Anthony Watts, John Nielsen-Gammon, Evan Jones, Dev Niyogi, John R. Christy, Roger A. Pielke Sr. “Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Volume 116, Issue D14, July 2011.
 
I think I found the issue and the explanation re it at skepticalscience.com/Dropped-stations-introduce-warming-bias-intermediate.htm

The analysis shows that dropping those stations from the dataset had no impact on the results – the global average temps.

It seems to me if Joseph D’Aleo and Anthony Watts are going to make a claim that dropping those stations made a difference (showing more warming than if those stations’ data were included), they should at the very least carry thru with calculating and analyzing where that did make a difference.
From your article:

“The most important issue is whether this drop-off in the number of reporting weather stations has had any impact on the temperature record. D’Aleo’s report performs no such analysis. However, there have been a number of independent analyses examining this very question. The first analysis was conducted by Tamino, from Open Mind, who plotted the temperature data from the weather stations that were dropped from the GHCN record (labelled ‘pre-cutoff’). He then compared this to the temperature data from the weather stations that were kept (labelled ‘post-cutoff’).”

So Strgwylydar (sp?) was exactly right, and your article admits it. The cold-weather stations were cut off and MMGW proponent writers simply extrapolated to what they “think” (guess? want to think?) the results would be if they were still there.
 
Bill1940;12158843:
If all Americans had gotten on the solar bandwagon, incl passive solar (which basically means orientation of homes and buildings), in the 1970s when we had the peak oil concern, we’d be a lot closer to that 50 or 100 years before we can transition away from fossil fuels. It will take many decades from now, assuming we start now in a vigorous way, to reduce our nation’s GHG emissions. It took my family 24 years to get to where we are now, with wind & solar energy and a Volt we drive mainly on electricity from that. We started off small with one CF bulb (then costing $15) and increasing insulation for our home, etc.

And that required much prayer and much help from God. It is not easy, but it is doable.
Even though the discussion seems to have moved past this, I wanted to add my own commentary.

I’m an architecture student, and I can say from my own educational experience that climate awareness (in a general sense), conservation of resources, and economic… efficiency I guess, are all really important topics in the field of architecture, especially right now. Passive solar/cooling, building orientation, water conservation methods, etc. are topics that they teach and encourage us to make use of in our designs.

My point is that future architects (not to mention current ones) are very much encouraged to utilize green building techniques for a variety of reasons, most prominently the economic and environmental (global and interior) benefits. Likewise, regardless of whether global warming is or is not scientifically decided, most architecture nowadays is being designed with these concepts in mind.

I will say that until solar panels become more affordable to buy and to produce, I doubt they will pick up outside of people that have the money to afford them saved up. For the most part, I don’t see the average homeowner investing in solar until the benefits are more directly obvious and the technology improves so the costs can come down.
 
How is that “extremely interesting”? The theory and the models were never intended to predict short-term fluctuations. I will admit it is “somewhat interesting” though.
I guess I don’t understand what short term is and what long term is with respect of the models. The models did in fact show a sharp increase in temperature that was suppose to happen right not, and it is not happening.

… personally, I’ve been working with computers for the last 30 years and I don’t think climate computer models really are reliable yet.
 
I guess I don’t understand what short term is and what long term is with respect of the models. The models did in fact show a sharp increase in temperature that was suppose to happen right not, and it is not happening.

… personally, I’ve been working with computers for the last 30 years and I don’t think climate computer models really are reliable yet.
That depends on what you want the model to do for you. If you want it to predict the next year or 5 or 10, those models are not going to be very reliable. But they were never intended to do that. They were intended to be reliable at 50 or 100 years. It is not a hard and fast threshold. The reliability just gradually improves as you apply it to longer time spans. Also the models are intended to show what would happen if everything else that is normally expected to stay constant does stay constant. If something unexpected happens, like a large increase in volcanic activity, the climate is bound to be affected. That does not mean the models are useless.
 
That depends on what you want the model to do for you. If you want it to predict the next year or 5 or 10, those models are not going to be very reliable. But they were never intended to do that. They were intended to be reliable at 50 or 100 years. It is not a hard and fast threshold. The reliability just gradually improves as you apply it to longer time spans. Also the models are intended to show what would happen if everything else that is normally expected to stay constant does stay constant. If something unexpected happens, like a large increase in volcanic activity, the climate is bound to be affected. That does not mean the models are useless.
But we only have reliable actual temp data on a global scale since the 1970s. Everything prior to the 1970s is either incomplete, spotty, or indirect (e.g., tree ring) which has been found to be unreliable. How can you possibly model 100 years or more out from that with any confidence?

I don’t doubt the earth currently is heating. I don’t doubt that mankind has some influence on this. I don’t doubt that CO2 has some influence on it. But I have a lot of doubt on models that have shown to be faulty. Wouldn’t it be more prudent to simply say, “we are still studying the situation and we’ll get back to you when our models are more accurate?”

I would like to see what really happened with the earth temps in the last 1,000 to 2,000 years and what is likely to happen in the next 1,000 years. Who knows, maybe we are going up a never ending escalator, or maybe we are going up the slope of a bell curve and that will cycle downward in a few decades.

Frankly, I don’t think they know.
 
…"I would like to see what really happened with the earth temps in the last 1,000 to 2,000 years and what is likely to happen in the next 1,000 years. Who knows, maybe we are going up a never ending escalator, or maybe we are going up the slope of a bell curve and that will cycle downward in a few decades.

Frankly, I don’t think they know.
Perhaps what is known through proxy evidence is sketchy but I have yet to hear someone explain away what we know from history. That is, what caused the significant warming periods around the time of Christ and during the medieval period. These, especially the latter, were times of population growth and prosperity. Norwegian did settle on Greenland for a considerable period, until it turned colder. The Little Ice Age (@1400-1850), on the other hand, was a time of social upheaval, poverty and revolution.
 
LeafNiggle

Here are a few comments re selective data
  • en.ria.ru/papers/20091216/157260660.htmlControversy arose after various allegations were made including that climate scientists colluded to withhold scientific evidence and manipulated data to make the case for global warming appear stronger than it is.
    Climategate has already affected Russia. On Tuesday, the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change based at the headquarters of the British Meteorological Office in Exeter (Devon, England) had probably tampered with Russian-climate data.
    The IEA believes that Russian meteorological-station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory.
    Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country’s territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports.
    Over 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations.
    The data of stations located in areas not listed in the Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature UK (HadCRUT) survey often does not show any substantial warming in the late 20th century and the early 21st century.
My links to an article/study that had appeared in the National Post/Vancouver sun are dead, but I did find a reference to it.

Mr. D’Aleo and Mr. Smith say NOAA and another U.S. agency, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) have not only reduced the total number of Canadian weather stations in the database, but have “cherry picked” the ones that remain by choosing sites in relatively warmer places, including more southerly locations, or sites closer to airports, cities or the sea — which has a warming effect on winter weather.

Over the past two decades, they say, “the percentage of [Canadian] stations in the lower elevations tripled and those at higher elevations, above 300 feet, were reduced in half.”

Using the agency’s own figures, Smith shows that in 1991, almost a quarter of NOAA’s Canadian temperature data came from stations in the high Arctic. The same region contributes only 3% of the Canadian data today.

Mr. D’Aleo and Mr. Smith say NOAA and GISS also ignore data from numerous weather stations in other parts of the world, including Russia, the U.S. and China.

They say NOAA collects no temperature data at all from Bolivia — a high-altitude, landlocked country — but instead “interpolates” or assigns temperature values for that country based on data from “nearby” temperature stations located at lower elevations in Peru, or in the Amazon basin.

The result, they say, is a warmer-than-truthful global temperature record.

“NOAA . . . systematically eliminated 75% of the world’s stations with a clear bias towards removing higher latitude, high altitude and rural locations, all of which had a tendency to be cooler,” the authors say. “The thermometers in a sense, marched towards the tropics, the sea, and to airport tarmacs.”

globalclimatescam.com/2010/01/scientists-using-selective-temperature-data-skeptics-say/

Australia vice Canada or Russia, but the same problems with selectivity-

Mr Eschenbach showed how, from the hundreds of available weather recording stations in Australia, the IPCC used only three stations to cover the period 1897 to 1992 [1]. Not only were the IPCC selective in the stations used, they ‘homogenized’ the raw data from these stations before using it. Homogenization had the effect of causing a 0.7C per century falling temperature trend to show a 1.2C per century increase with the adjustments made involving a change of over 2C per century.

Mr Eschenbach made the comment that, “when those guys ‘adust’, they don’t mess around. And the adjustment is an odd shape, with the adjustment first going stepwise, then climbing roughly to stop at 2.4C.”
 
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