World's climate warming faster than feared, scientists say

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Since many here bring up how much it will cost to mitigate GW, I think it is important to also look at how much GW effects will cost in finances, as well as human health and lives. It’s not right just to look at costs of mitigation – which I’ve always insisted, if done right, will actually be negative costs, helping personal finances and the economy, or at least not cost nearly as much as skeptics seem to imagine…in the long run as some measures “pay for themselves.”

On another thread they are discussing how weather has been a significant drag on the economy. Considering that GW is just in its initial phases and just now extreme weather and other possible GW effects are being attributed to some extent to GW, it is not hard to image once GW really gets going, the harms and costs it will cause.

Here is a report about AGW contributions to extreme weather events in 2012: ametsoc.org/2012extremeeventsclimate.pdf

Right now there are extreme weather and other events related to GW happening as predicted, and knock-on effects: extreme flooding, extreme droughts, extreme wildfires, extreme storms, heat-related deaths, lowering food production (in some parts of the world now, and in northern mid-latitudes by 2050), etc.

And that is only with .7C of warming. When it gets to be 2C warmer (global average), it would likely be much worse.

http://climatecrock.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/bellcurvesmall.jpg?w=480&h=424

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/acre_per.jpg?w=500&h=322
This might be more interesting if there hadn’t been far more catastrophic winters in the past, before there was much at all in the way of burning fossil fuels.

It might be as well if I could tell an iota of difference between past droughts and the one of 2011-2012. I have seen a lot worse years ago. And the 1930s drought was worse than any I have ever seen.

And it might be if I could tell any difference in climate or weather at all during my lifetime, other than those cyclical events that come and go. Water flow is no different except cyclically (and I DO pay attention to that because I must). Growing seasons are no different except cyclically (again, it’s critical to me to know) Temperature variations are no different except cyclically.

Nothing is different, so why should I believe that somehow it is when it manifestly is not?
Because somebody says “oh, it will be different in 2050”, so we had better make heating and cooling and refrigreration and food production much more expensive than it is now, and lose jobs overseas to the bargain?

Not sufficiently persuasive to cause the suffering all of that political “mitigation” will do.

And just how do you figure making utility costs “skyrocket” will cost people less? I know and you know that it it won’t. Your only answer to that, thread after thread, is that there needs to be utility subsidies to those who can’t afford the increases. Well, why make subsidies necessary in the first place? If people can pay their utility bills now, why make it impossible for them to do so later? And food will be just as negatively affected by political “mitigation”. So are we going to subsidize that too? Is there anything we’re NOT going to subsidize in order to avoid something someone says will happen in 2050 or beyond, but can’t seem to prove?

It makes no sense, Lynnvinc.
 
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: The key to reducing pollution from electrical generation is to go nuclear. Build more fission plants in the short term, and increase the budget for fusion research for the long term. Currently, the annual budget for fusion research is less than the cost of a single B-2 bomber. For those worried about radiation effects, a coal plant releases over 33 times more radiation than a nuclear plant every year. Even eating a single banana gives one a higher dose of radiation than one would get living within 50 miles of a nuclear plant for a whole year. Is your house made of brick, concrete, or any other kind of masonry? That’s over 700 times more radiation each year.

This country is way too paranoid about nuclear power. It’s safe, clean, efficient, and works 24x7 in all weather.
 
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: The key to reducing pollution from electrical generation is to go nuclear. Build more fission plants in the short term, and increase the budget for fusion research for the long term. Currently, the annual budget for fusion research is less than the cost of a single B-2 bomber. For those worried about radiation effects, a coal plant releases over 33 times more radiation than a nuclear plant every year. Even eating a single banana gives one a higher dose of radiation than one would get living within 50 miles of a nuclear plant for a whole year. Is your house made of brick, concrete, or any other kind of masonry? That’s over 700 times more radiation each year.

This country is way too paranoid about nuclear power. It’s safe, clean, efficient, and works 24x7 in all weather.
You and I do not disagree about nuclear. I favor it as well.
 
Your one anecdotal observation may be significant for how you experience life, but climate change is not all about you.
The restrictions that hurt the economy for this unproven theory seem to effect me personally.

So…yes. It is all about me.
And every other person trying to make an honest living in spite of the restrictions placed upon them for flawed science and dishonesty.
 
Right now there are extreme weather and other events related to GW happening as predicted, and knock-on effects: extreme flooding, extreme droughts, extreme wildfires, extreme storms, heat-related deaths, lowering food production (in some parts of the world now, and in northern mid-latitudes by 2050), etc.
Really?

We are half way through hurricane season.

How many hurricanes have we had?
 
This might be more interesting if there hadn’t been far more catastrophic winters in the past, before there was much at all in the way of burning fossil fuels.

It might be as well if I could tell an iota of difference between past droughts and the one of 2011-2012. I have seen a lot worse years ago. And the 1930s drought was worse than any I have ever seen.

And it might be if I could tell any difference in climate or weather at all during my lifetime, other than those cyclical events that come and go. Water flow is no different except cyclically (and I DO pay attention to that because I must). Growing seasons are no different except cyclically (again, it’s critical to me to know) Temperature variations are no different except cyclically.

Nothing is different, so why should I believe that somehow it is when it manifestly is not?
Well, the scientists have found significant increases in hurricanes, droughts, floods, wildfires, disease spread, heat deaths, and harm to crops in some poor countries that can be attributed to AGW to date. If you don’t accept that, then that’s your call. I figure the scientists are usually underestimating problems (since they are striving to avoid the false positive).

Of course they are using data from all over the world, not just someone’s back yard or a few cherry picked examples from history.
Because somebody says “oh, it will be different in 2050”, so we had better make heating and cooling and refrigreration and food production much more expensive than it is now, and lose jobs overseas to the bargain? Not sufficiently persuasive to cause the suffering all of that political “mitigation” will do.
No, we should be making these things less expensive by becoming more energy/resource efficient/conservative and going on alt energy. And we have a huge way to go on that for several decades to come before we even enter the realm of “maybe we have to sacrifice a bit.”

I guess many here are gamblers. I’m not. Protestant upbringing and my grandmother didn’t even put anything in the stockmarket, bec she said that was gambling and gambling was a sin.

Except that we are not only gambling with money and wealth (that of our children and their progeny), but also human lives.
And just how do you figure making utility costs “skyrocket” will cost people less? I know and you know that it it won’t. Your only answer to that, thread after thread, is that there needs to be utility subsidies to those who can’t afford the increases. Well, why make subsidies necessary in the first place? If people can pay their utility bills now, why make it impossible for them to do so later? And food will be just as negatively affected by political “mitigation”. So are we going to subsidize that too? Is there anything we’re NOT going to subsidize in order to avoid something someone says will happen in 2050 or beyond, but can’t seem to prove?
It makes no sense, Lynnvinc.
I think we can reduce our GHG emissions cost-effectively without gov plans – we just need the will, and perhaps some low-interest loans for poorer people for some of the cost effective measures that will pay for themselves and the loans to get them

But if we are to go into some gov plan to “inspire” these already sensible actions, then I think “Fee & Dividend” makes the most sense. Put a modest fee on fossil fuels – barrels of oil and tons of coal as the come out of the ground or into port, then give ALL that money to all the adult residents of the U.S. (perhaps the way Bush gave us back some of our tax dollars some years back). See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fee_and_dividend

That way people can use that money either to pay their higher energy costs or plow it into energy/resource efficient/conservative measures and/or alt energy and really be on the road out of poverty.

Why not give that a try for, say, 5 or 10 years, and if it doesn’t work we can scrap it.

Why not get out of this “can’t do” mode and into some efforts to find out how to do this with least harm, and hopefully even help in saving $$ (and lives).
 
Well, the scientists have found significant increases in hurricanes, droughts, floods, wildfires, disease spread, heat deaths, and harm to crops in some poor countries that can be attributed to AGW to date. If you don’t accept that, then that’s your call. I figure the scientists are usually underestimating problems (since they are striving to avoid the false positive).
As asked earlier.
How many hurricanes have we had this season?

You wish to claim global warming increases hurricanes. Fine then. By virtue of the fact that hurricanes appear to be down, there is no global warming.
 
Really?

We are half way through hurricane season.

How many hurricanes have we had?
Again, you have to look at the entire world and more than one year, even more that one decade. What about Typhoon Haiyan last year? Or Superstorm Sandy.

Here’s a prayer the Philippine bishops have been asking people to pray since 2009:

ORATIO IMPERATA (Prayer for Deliverance from Calamities)

Almighty Father, we raise our hearts to You in gratitude for the wonders of creation of which we are part, for Your providence in sustaining us in our needs, and for Your wisdom that guides the course of the universe.

We acknowledge our sins against You and the rest of creation.

We have not been good stewards of Nature.

We have confused Your command to subdue the earth.

The environment is made to suffer our wrongdoing, and now we reap the harvest of our abuse and indifference.

Global warming is upon us. Typhoons, floods, volcanic eruption, and other natural calamities occur in increasing number and intensity.

We turn to You, our loving Father, and beg forgiveness for our sins.

We ask that we, our loved ones and our hard earned possessions be spared from the threat of calamities, natural and man-made.

We beseech You to inspire us all to grow into responsible stewards of Your creation, and generous neighbors to those in need.

Amen.
 
Well, the scientists have found significant increases in hurricanes, droughts, floods, wildfires, disease spread, heat deaths, and harm to crops in some poor countries that can be attributed to AGW to date. If you don’t accept that, then that’s your call. I figure the scientists are usually underestimating problems (since they are striving to avoid the false positive). “Some scientists” would be more accurate.

Of course they are using data from all over the world, not just someone’s back yard or a few cherry picked examples from history.But Lynnvinc, when there is NO evidence of it, year after year and decade after decade, there is no reason to believe it. I do not believe I live in the only part of the country that’s immune to MMGW if it was real. But it’s just not here.

No, we should be making these things less expensive by becoming more energy/resource efficient/conservative and going on alt energy. And we have a huge way to go on that for several decades to come before we even enter the realm of “maybe we have to sacrifice a bit.” No, it’s here and now. 80% of the electricity in my state is produced by coal. Recent EPA restrictions promise to cost every household in my state an additional $1400/year, and that’s probably a conservative estimate. Believe it or not, there are people who can’t afford an additional $1400.

But if we are to go into some gov plan to “inspire” these already sensible actions, then I think “Fee & Dividend” makes the most sense. Put a modest fee on fossil fuels – barrels of oil and tons of coal as the come out of the ground or into port, then give ALL that money to all the adult residents of the U.S. (perhaps the way Bush gave us back some of our tax dollars some years back). See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fee_and_dividend Why on earth would it make sense to make people pay more for energy, then to give it back to them after filtering it through government hands? Truly, this makes no sense at all. Why not simply allow it to be less expensive to start with?

/QUOTE]
 
And the articles goes - “…Having just experienced one of the coldest winters on record, one can understand why many Americans are skeptical. Ten major U.S. cities, says The Weather Channel, faced one of their worst winters this year…”

So where did that colder weather come from? A lot of it came from a strong neg arctic oscillation – creating a change from a west-east to north-south pattern in the weather.

And where are these stronger neg arctic oscillations coming from.

Research is pointing toward climate change. See:
Luckily we and northern Mexico did not get it this past winter, since it pretty much wipes out billions in crops. But I’ve been keeping my eyes on this type of research, since areas that normally don’t get killing winter freezes (and are too hot in summer to grow crops) are at severe risk from these. As it is, they happen about every 7 years – we were told when we moved down here in 2002 – but it seems they’ve been happening more frequently.

Time and further research will tell whether we can expect AGW to contribute to more and/or more severe Nor’easters in the mid-latitudes of N. America and killing freezes in the Rio Grande Valley and northern Mexico.
 
Again, you have to look at the entire world and more than one year, even more that one decade. What about Typhoon Haiyan last year? Or Superstorm Sandy.
Interesting.

We have to look to decades of data…or just the two storms.

Which is it?
 
And the articles goes - “…Having just experienced one of the coldest winters on record, one can understand why many Americans are skeptical. Ten major U.S. cities, says The Weather Channel, faced one of their worst winters this year…”

So where did that colder weather come from? A lot of it came from a strong neg arctic oscillation – creating a change from a west-east to north-south pattern in the weather.

And where are these stronger neg arctic oscillations coming from.

Research is pointing toward climate change. See:
Luckily we and northern Mexico did not get it this past winter, since it pretty much wipes out billions in crops. But I’ve been keeping my eyes on this type of research, since areas that normally don’t get killing winter freezes (and are too hot in summer to grow crops) are at severe risk from these. As it is, they happen about every 7 years – we were told when we moved down here in 2002 – but it seems they’ve been happening more frequently.

Time and further research will tell whether we can expect AGW to contribute to more and/or more severe Nor’easters in the mid-latitudes of N. America and killing freezes in the Rio Grande Valley and northern Mexico.
Where did the cold weather come from? Here in Colorado we call it"weather"
 
Interesting.

We have to look to decades of data…or just the two storms.

Which is it?
Decades of worldwide data to establish scientific proof at the .05 p-value on the null or 95% confidence (which has been established since 2005).

However, as a Christian, I feel partly responsible for those 2 storms and their devastation on human lives, as well as the others. And I also understand it is the last “umph” of the storms, which is the part most attributable to AGW, that does the most damage. As a Christian, I have a somewhat different way of looking at it than the scientists do. For instance, I felt a bit responsible for Hurricane Andrew in 1992, well before science established AGW was happening (with 1st studies indicating that in 1995) and first studies indicating hurricanes had indeed increased in intensity (in 2005) and frequency (in 2011). I don’t need 95% confidence that I’m doing something wrong before striving to mitigate it…
 
I don’t need 95% confidence that I’m doing something wrong before striving to mitigate it…
You don’t. If you are the only one involved.

But if you are going to impose burdens that cause economic hardships, you had better have proof. 100% indisputable proof.

But as for percentages of confidence…
I have 0 confidence in global warming.

With all of the misdirection, falsified science, and deceptive visuals, I am still trying to discern if I am being lied to.
 
Interesting.

We have to look to decades of data…or just the two storms.

Which is it?
When analyzing the issue scientifically, it would be more appropriate to look at decades of data. But for people who refuse to consider decades of data and insist on citing anecdotes (like “I haven’t seen many bad storms recently”), citing a couple of storms is all one can do to prove them wrong.
 
But for people who refuse to consider decades of data and insist on citing anecdotes (like “I haven’t seen many bad storms recently”), citing two storms is all one can do to prove them wrong.
Still not helpful.

Sandy was only a cat 3.

That leaves the typhoon, and as my statistics professor said, one does not equal a pattern.

But besides that, in the same paragraph where I am told to pay attention to decades of data, I am also told to only look at two storms.
This makes no sense. But it does seem to fit the pattern of nonsensical arguments.
 
But as for percentages of confidence…
I have 0 confidence in global warming.

With all of the misdirection, falsified science, and deceptive visuals, I am still trying to discern if I am being lied to.
Are you just as sensitive to the misdirection, falsified science, and deceptive visuals from the Heartland Institute and their ilk?
 
Still not helpful.

Sandy was only a cat 3.

That leaves the typhoon, and as my statistics professor said, one does not equal a pattern.

But besides that, in the same paragraph where I am told to pay attention to decades of data, I am also told to only look at two storms.
This makes no sense. But it does seem to fit the pattern of nonsensical arguments.
You were told to pay attention to two storms because you refuse to pay attention to decades of data, which as I said is the preferred mode of analysis.
 
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