2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

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Big_Ro said:
Gilliam probably already beat me to it, but did anyone notice that there are various reports out that NJ Gov. Christie has been focus groupng a possible run for the WH in 2012. This would put my bold, now some two month old, prediction that Perry will be the nominee in some doubt. (Although, I would still put Perry at the lead.) Apparently, he was nudged by Roger Ailes. I must say this is the most unpredictable primary season I can remember. I’m going to step out there and say he won’t run in the end.
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I would love Christie to get into the race. A Christie/Rubio ticket would be my dream ticket (besides Paul/Johnson, which will NEVER happen). However, I highly doubt Christie would enter the race. He’s made pretty harsh statements regarding a 2012 run. And by harsh statements I mean the kind of statements that make me love the guy. I’m hoping he will run in 2016 if Obama gets re-elected or 2020 if we get a Republican this time around. Let him grow in experience.

And sources close to Christie deny focus groups.

The one I’m interested now in is Paul Ryan. He’s the person I’m looking at to see if he gets into the race. He could possibly be a game changer, not as much as Perry, but still a game changer. That would be interesting to see.

But seriously, where’s the love for the devout Catholic, guitar playing, Led Zepplin quoting congressman Thad McCotter?
 
estesbob said:
The question again becomes were does Palin’s votes go when she announces she is not running? . The logical choice would be Bachman but I’m not so surethe bulk will not go to Perry.
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My guess Perry and Bachmann
 
SalesianSDB said:
The one I’m interested now in is Paul Ryan. He’s the person I’m looking at to see if he gets into the race. He could possibly be a game changer, not as much as Perry, but still a game changer. That would be interesting to see.
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The current Republican establishment is supposedly trying to talk Paul Ryan into running. They don’t like Romney much (think he is too weak a candidate) and since many were on Bush’s team and there was friction with Perry and Bush camps in TX, they don’t want Perry.

Personally, I don’t think Ryan has a chance in the general for a couple of reasons:
  1. His budget was taken very negatively by the Baby Boomer generation
  2. He lacks experience running anything.
 
I’m a John Stossel fan and whenever he talks about polls he says he doesn’t trust them as much as he does prediction markets where people bid on future events because, as Stossel says, the predictions are more accurate when you have money on it. Stossel claims that one study shows that prediction markets such as Intrade have half the margin of most polls and are more accurate than companies like Gallup.

Intrade, the largest prediction market, currently gives these candidates a shot at winning the nomination:
Rick Perry - 36.5%
Mitt Romney- 29.5%
Michele Bachmann- 6.2%
Ron Paul- 3.1%

It gives Obama a 50.8% chance that he will be elected.

These numbers change as the campaign goes on and people place their bets.

I just thought I’d mention this because it seems pretty interesting and good to look at every now and then.
 
I’ve read most of the pages of this thread and it has been a pretty good one. I like Ron Paul- and yes, I’ve heard he’s unelectable and not a viable candidate. I’ve seen the different polls. One thing we have to remember is that this is not 2004, or even 2008. In those years, a Ron Paul or a Michelle Bachmann WAS unelectable. But this country has seen alot in the last ten years, and particularly, in the last 3. I think it’s fair to say that while it was not 100% his fault, that George Bush could have tried to do more to stem the bleeding when everything started to go bad in 08. I also think it’s fair to say that Obama, while quite probably a good a decent man, has done little to nothing to help the problem either. Washington has forgotten who got them there. This country does not want polticians who are all talk, no action anymore. There is an element of that, I think, in the Republican field. I think the Iowa poll was very telling, as that is middle America, close to where I live, and I think those views are possibly shared by much of this area.
In New Hampshire, I fully expect Mitt Romney to blow away the competition, as he was the governor of Massachusetts. What will hurt him is Romny/ObamaCare. I have noticed many times that Obama gives praise to Romney for the blueprints to ObamaCare. Fair or not-it is what it is,
Back to Ron Paul, what I can’t help but wonder is how many people would vote for him, but then think, ‘Oh, he won’t win anyway so I’ll vote for [insert name here]’. I don’t know- I truly think that whether or not he becomes President in 2012, he has sparked a new vision for America. I think people are tired of the status quo, of living paycheck to paycheck, and of wondering how long thier jobs will last. I have also been heavily interested in politics, but as I type this, I am looking at my children. 3 great kids, aged 4, 2, and 9 months. They don’t have a worry in the world other than when dinner is. At this point, they don’t have to understand 9/11, potential terrorism, places like Iraq and Iran, or the plummeting value of our dollar. But, one day, they will. And honestly, I worry that those topics will be the least of their worries by that time. I don’t want that for them. I don’t. And I know the talking heads all say that this is the most important election of our lifetime. They always say that. But this time, there’s a bit of truth behind it.
No matter who you like, what party you belong to, or what religion you are, vote honestly. Vote for who you truly think will win this election. Vote for who you truly believe will help our country. Vote for who you truly believe will help our children not have these dire worries that we have. I understand that there are always going to be some worries in our lives, but let’s at least be able to look at our kids and say ‘We did everything we could to make this country better. We gave it our all.’ And hopefully, we WILL be able to do that. Thank you for reading my thoughts. I respect all your opinions and have enjoyed reading this thread. God Bless.
 
SalesianSDB said:
I’m a John Stossel fan and whenever he talks about polls he says he doesn’t trust them as much as he does prediction markets where people bid on future events because, as Stossel says, the predictions are more accurate when you have money on it. Stossel claims that one study shows that prediction markets such as Intrade have half the margin of most polls and are more accurate than companies like Gallup.

Intrade, the largest prediction market, currently gives these candidates a shot at winning the nomination:
Rick Perry - 36.5%
Mitt Romney- 29.5%
Michele Bachmann- 6.2%
Ron Paul- 3.1%

It gives Obama a 50.8% chance that he will be elected.

These numbers change as the campaign goes on and people place their bets.

I just thought I’d mention this because it seems pretty interesting and good to look at every now and then.
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I'm sticking to my prediction that Sarah Palin will win the nomination AND Presidency in 2012. Ron Paul has 0.00000% chance of winning anything. No, I don't think he's a bad guy, and I think that his son, Sen. Rand Paul, is one of the brightest lights in America. :thumbsup: Rob
 
estesbob said:
The question again becomes were does Palin’s votes go when she announces she is not running? . The logical choice would be Bachman but I’m not so surethe bulk will not go to Perry.
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Code: 
 If, God forbid, Gov. Palin chooses not to run, I have no other candidate. I'll probably vote for Cain or Santorum, but with little enthusiasm. If it came down to Romney v. anyone when the Pa. primary comes, I'll vote for the anyone. Bachmann will be gone early, as she keeps making careless statements that resound with a clank. 
 Since late March, I've been 100% pro-Sarah Palin. I always had liked her, but I started reading up on her, then read Going Rogue, and I'm sold. It's a no-brainer. She is so incredibly articulate, shrewd and competent. When her 24,000 pages of private e-mails were released, I knew they would show what I already knew: The woman is an amazing, hard-working executive, and we desperately need her in Washington. Bob
 
Two other candidates are in the running … maybe.

Chris Christie of New Jersey.

George Pataki of New York.
 
SalesianSDB said:
I’m a John Stossel fan and whenever he talks about polls he says he doesn’t trust them as much as he does prediction markets where people bid on future events because, as Stossel says, the predictions are more accurate when you have money on it. Stossel claims that one study shows that prediction markets such as Intrade have half the margin of most polls and are more accurate than companies like Gallup.

Intrade, the largest prediction market, currently gives these candidates a shot at winning the nomination:
Rick Perry - 36.5%
Mitt Romney- 29.5%
Michele Bachmann- 6.2%
Ron Paul- 3.1%

It gives Obama a 50.8% chance that he will be elected.

These numbers change as the campaign goes on and people place their bets.

I just thought I’d mention this because it seems pretty interesting and good to look at every now and then.
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I wonder how those prediction markets would work if they compared “teams”.

Obama/Biden versus Perry/Romney

Or.

Obama/Biden versus Perry/Palin

Or

Obama/Clinton versus Perry / Bachmann

Or

Obama w/o teleprompter etc
 
Monte_RCMS said:
Two other candidates are in the running … maybe.

Chris Christie of New Jersey.

George Pataki of New York.
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Pataki could be a viable candidate; he’s moderate, a compromiser, listens to both sides of a story without reacting with a knee jerk reaction and he’s respected. He’d likely garner mainstream republicans and many right leaning independents. A nice replacement for Pawlenty.

Christie has too much baggage, comes off to many as arrogant and is not liked very well by mainstream workers. He’d get the conservative vote and not much else.
 
gamewell45 said:
Pataki could be a viable candidate; he’s moderate, a compromiser, listens to both sides of a story without reacting with a knee jerk reaction and he’s respected. He’d likely garner mainstream republicans and many right leaning independents. A nice replacement for Pawlenty.

Christie has too much baggage, comes off to many as arrogant and is not liked very well by mainstream workers. He’d get the conservative vote and not much else.
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Pataki is a typical big government Republican… .so that means he is a shoe in for top tier consideration.

Christie gets things done. But he has been very vocal about not running.
 
RACJ said:
The Palin/ Rubio '12 ticket is your winner. 👍👍👍 Rob
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Only if you want to alienate any pro-life Democrat that would consider voting against Obama. Exciting GOP ticket…

…that would loose to Obama’s $1 billion war chest.
 
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