A new Ice Age approaches?

  • Thread starter Thread starter Pax_et_Bonum
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
Sorry, not buying the first link you gave. I see a couple of guys quoted in it from this team of “Slayers” and I don’t see anywhere that indicates the published an actual peer-reviewed scientific paper in a respected journal. There are literally thousands and thousands of peer-reviewed papers publish in such journals supporting the basic premisis of CO2 having a warming effect on the atmosphere.
Some of the Slayers
omatumr.com/papers.html Professor O. Manuel
Oliver Manuel (United States)
Emeritus Professor Oliver K. Manuel is a renowned nuclear and space scientist with over 100 refereed publications in leading research journals [Science, Nature, Physical Review, Proceedings of Lunar Science Conferences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, etc.] and papers presented at science conferences world-wide, including the United States, old USSR, Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Russia, Portugal, Switzerland, and Wales.
Professor Manuel is best known for reporting the decay products of extinct 129I and 244Pu in the Earth [Science 134 (1971) 1334], isotopic anomalies from element synthesis in meteorites [Nature 240 (1972) 99], supernova birth of the Solar System [Science 195 (1977) 208; Nature (1979) 615], mass-fractionation in the Sun [Meteoritics 18 (1983) 209], “strange xenon” in Jupiter [Meteoritics 33 (1998) A97, 5011], neutron repulsion as a source of nuclear energy [Journal of Fusion Energy 19 (2001) 93], and the Sun’s dominant influence on Earth’s changing climate [Energy & Environment 20 (2009) 131].
Johnson, Claes

Dr. Hertzberg
explosionexpert.com/pages/1/index.htm
Dr Hertzberg has a Ph D in Physical Chemistry from Stanford, earned his B A degree, cum laude, from the Heights Campus of New York University, and was trained as a meteorologist at the U. S. Naval Postgraduate School. His honors include membership in Phi Beta Kappa, a Meritorious Service Award, a Foreign Visiting Scholar at CNRS in Orleans, France, and a Fulbright Professorship.
Dr. Tim Ball, one of the first Canadians to hold a Ph.D. in climatology, wrote his doctoral thesis at the University of London (England) using the remarkable records of the Hudson?s Bay Company to reconstruct climate change from 1714 to 1952. He has published numerous articles on climate change and its impact on the human condition. Dr Ball has served on numerous committees at the federal, provincial, and municipal levels on climate, water resources, and environmental issues. He was a professor of climatology at the University of Winnipeg for 28 years. He is currently working as an environmental consultant and public speaker based in Victoria and has written, with Dr Stuart Houston, 18th Century Naturalists on Hudson Bay, a book on the science and climate of the fur trade (McGill-Queens University Press, 2003)
marshall.org/experts.php?id=176
Dr. Charles Anderson is a materials physicist with a 38-year career in the use of radiation to characterize and analyze the properties of materials. He especially enjoys the use of multi-discipline techniques to solve complex materials problems quickly and efficiently. He has worked as a laboratory scientist for the Dept. of the Navy, Lockheed Martin Laboratories, and has owned and operated Anderson Materials Evaluation, Inc. since 1995. He has an Sc.B. in Physics from Brown University and his Ph.D. was earned at Case Western Reserve University studying the surface magnetization of nickel single crystals using Mössbauer spectroscopy and Auger electron spectroscopy.
NASIF NAHLE
biocab.org/Academic_Curriculum.html

There are many more.

But there is one kook in the batch.Derek Alker an English factory worker.
He did a paper called Do IR budgets make sense. ???

climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/DoIRbudgetsmakesenseFinalversion.pdf
It takes work that was commonly accepted by K. Trenberth, J. Fasullo, and J. Kiehl Global Energy Flows or budgets, and shakes it up.

So much so that Britain’s AQA officially acknowledged that henceforth the schools examinations authority will be using Derek’s work as reference material for school science examinations. The AQA (Assessment and Qualifications Alliance) has responsibility for awarding 45 percent of Britain’s high school (14–19 years of age) qualifications

Let’s see what one of the Worlds most peer-reviewd and quoted "scientist says about peer-review under oath to MP’s. Mr P Jones
When he was asked how often scientists reviewing his papers for probity before publication asked to see details of his raw data, methodology and computer codes. “They’ve never asked,” he said.
AND
For the first time he did concede publicly that when he tried to repeat the 1990 study in 2008, he came up with radically different findings. Or, as he put it, “a slightly different conclusion”. Fully 40% of warming there in the past 60 years was due to urban influences. “It’s something we need to consider,” he said.
theregister.co.uk/2010/03…ate/print.html

I don’t put much faith in peer-review that is carried out in a vacuum.
 
If you look at paleozoology, creatures that specialize and faile to maintain the capacity to adapt always go extinct, precisely because the climate changes and their anatomical and physiological mechanisms are not suitable for the changing environment. I think this lends well to your theory of homogenaity. It is the push to stop our ability to adapt to changing conditions, because politicians and bureaucrats seem to think they can control everything.
It’s not just politicians and bureacrats. It’s also corporations and marketing. Do you know how much of the corn crop in this country is of the exact same genetic strain (in some cases modified)? It’s horrifying to think what would happen if a pest came along well adapted to killing that paricular grain. Same goes for many other agricultural staples (chickens, wheat, etc). Corporations LOVE homogeneity.
 
personally, i think the answer is to stop looking for the answer and embrace the fact that both weather and climate are weird and make sure we have a diversified approach to agriculture able to support humanity in a variety of scenarios. We like to think we’re smart enough to develop the answer, but we really aren’t.

If anything the homogenous solution approach makes us more vulnerable rather than less. Agriculture, energy, land development, education… You name it and humanity seems to be in a huge push to homogenize everything. I don’t get it.

I’m not convinced that weather is any wilder than it’s always been. There’s a reason that weather has always been and will always be a staple of small talk. What has changed is how connected we are. Nobody really used to know if a tornado levelled a small town three states away 75 years ago. Today it is national news for a week. Plus humanity has a much larger physical footprint on earth than we used to. Random weather disasters occurring at fairly constant rates will thus demolish more structures today than they did 75 years ago.
absolutely :)🙂
 
Agree 100%.

Peace

Tim
Sometimes I think that we’re between people who wouldn’t be happy until we were all living with cycle-powered lights and TVs and those who would be telling us that it’s all a liberal myth when it’s snowshoes in summer in Florida and the only possible crop in Norway is cacti.

Meanwhile the rest of us are wondering how much of the world is ‘Greenland’ and how much of its crops are ‘Greenland grapes’.
 
We’ve never agreed more completely (except I’m not Jewish, so who knows where I get it).

Personally, I think the answer is to stop looking for THE answer and embrace the fact that both weather and climate are weird and make sure we have a diversified approach to agriculture able to support humanity in a variety of scenarios. We like to think we’re smart enough to develop THE answer, but we really aren’t.

If anything the homogenous solution approach makes us MORE vulnerable rather than less. Agriculture, energy, land development, education… You name it and humanity seems to be in a huge push to homogenize everything. I don’t get it.
Well, I don’t really care whether it’s cows emitting methane, volcanoes or sunspots, the thing is that it wouldn’t take a lot to create an awful lot of problems.
I’m not convinced that weather is any wilder than it’s always been. There’s a reason that weather has always been and will always be a staple of small talk. What HAS changed is how connected we are. Nobody really used to know if a tornado levelled a small town three states away 75 years ago. Today it is national news for a week. Plus humanity has a much larger physical footprint on earth than we used to. Random weather disasters occurring at fairly constant rates will thus demolish more structures today than they did 75 years ago.
That’s not true of everywhere though, some countries have been settled a bit longer. 🙂
 
Some of the Slayers
omatumr.com/papers.html Professor O. Manuel

Johnson, Claes

Dr. Hertzberg
explosionexpert.com/pages/1/index.htm

marshall.org/experts.php?id=176

NASIF NAHLE
biocab.org/Academic_Curriculum.html

There are many more.

But there is one kook in the batch.Derek Alker an English factory worker.
He did a paper called Do IR budgets make sense. ???

climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/DoIRbudgetsmakesenseFinalversion.pdf
It takes work that was commonly accepted by K. Trenberth, J. Fasullo, and J. Kiehl Global Energy Flows or budgets, and shakes it up.

So much so that Britain’s AQA officially acknowledged that henceforth the schools examinations authority will be using Derek’s work as reference material for school science examinations. The AQA (Assessment and Qualifications Alliance) has responsibility for awarding 45 percent of Britain’s high school (14–19 years of age) qualifications

Let’s see what one of the Worlds most peer-reviewd and quoted "scientist says about peer-review under oath to MP’s. Mr P Jones

AND

theregister.co.uk/2010/03…ate/print.html

I don’t put much faith in peer-review that is carried out in a vacuum.
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
 
That’s not true of everywhere though, some countries have been settled a bit longer. 🙂
Bumpkin question: You guys haven’t experienced urban sprawl in the last 50 years? Seriously? In the US, I forget the exact numbers, but the footprint of urbanized area has grown by something like 500% in the last 50 years while the population in those areas has only about doubled. I’ve always concluded that it is largely attributable to smaller households (more divorce and fewer children), but if you’re telling me your area hasn’t experienced a similar mismatch between footprint and demographics I may be off. Maybe I’m making too much of your short answer. You sure developed footprint area over there hasn’t increased massively in the past 50 years?

My point was that larger development footprint x same weather disaster frequency = more headlines to report, which makes it SEEM like weather is crazier even if it isn’t. There are just more targets to hit.
 
As I said we have adjusted to the world’s climate for millenia as we did the Flood and we will continue to do so.Oops!Here come the Flood deniers!

There is no point in impoverishing ourselves because half the “scientists”,not 1 per cent of whom are climatologists say the sky is falling.It is an income redistribution scheme-all the ex commies simply took over the environmentalist movement.They are not happy unless they are telling people how to live their lives and spend their money,

MY scientists can beat up YOUR scientists.

Anyone remember the Dust Bowl?On the prairies in Canada where a goodly portion of the worlds grains are grown i can remember deluges of rain and droughts which were horrible for crops. Weather is cyclical then throw in el Ninos and el Ninas.
 
Bumpkin question: You guys haven’t experienced urban sprawl in the last 50 years? Seriously? In the US, I forget the exact numbers, but the footprint of urbanized area has grown by something like 500% in the last 50 years while the population in those areas has only about doubled. I’ve always concluded that it is largely attributable to smaller households (more divorce and fewer children), but if you’re telling me your area hasn’t experienced a similar mismatch between footprint and demographics I may be off. Maybe I’m making too much of your short answer. You sure developed footprint area over there hasn’t increased massively in the past 50 years?

My point was that larger development footprint x same weather disaster frequency = more headlines to report, which makes it SEEM like weather is crazier even if it isn’t. There are just more targets to hit.
Except that urban sprawl, apart from a bit of a hiatus with the Black Death in the fourteenth century, has been going on for quite a while!

Urbanization in England, for example, is really just the loss of boundaries between towns and villages that have been there for many centuries and were not far apart to begin with - the first ‘bureaucratization’ of settlement records took place after the Norman Conquest (the Domesday Book) and highly detailed survey maps/records of the entire country go back a couple of hundred years.

The whole scale of countries like the UK is entirely different (60 million in an area the size of New York State) and, while the town I live in, for example, is largely made up of building in the last century, quite a bit of it has been around longer than the US and some of it longer than knowledge of the Americas. A couple of hours walking, never mind driving would take me to a huge city and several towns and villages that also have been around for similar lengths of time.
 
Another new study:

While releasing a comprehensive study conducted by Space Application Centre (SAC) on retreating of Himalayan glaciers, Union environment minister Jairam Ramesh on Wednesday claimed that his stand was vindicated on the controversy on pace of retreating of glaciers. Ramesh quoted the findings of the study which found that 75% glaciers are retreating, 8% are advancing and remaining 17% are stable in the Himalayan region.

“This is the largest study ever conducted on glaciers in the world. Total 2190 glaciers were studied for the span of 15years by the scientists of SAC, a unit of ISRO,” Ramesh said at SAC campus in Ahmedabad.

“As per the finding, average pace of retreat is 3.75% a year so at this pace, it would take 400 years to melt all the glaciers in the Himalayan region,” he added, debunking the earlier report of UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) headed by Dr Rajendra Pachauri, which had issued an ‘alarmist warning” that Himalayan glaciers may vanish by 2035.

“When the IPCC released its finding, I had said melting of glaciers in Himalaya is incredibly complex issue and glaciers of Europe and Himalaya have different behavior. I was criticized for my remarks but today, conclusions of this study bears out my stand on the issue,” the minister said, thanking the scientists involved in the exercise for the comprehensive work they have carried out on very contentious issue.

In January 2010, Nobel Prize winning IPCC had in its report stated that Himalayan glaciers may disappear by 2035 on account of impact of climate change and global warning.

However, the report had triggered a controversy, forcing the IPCC to retract the discussion paper from its report with admission that it was a “mistake.” Later, it turned out that the 2035 estimate came not from a peer-reviewed scientific paper but from an interview conducted in 1999 by New Scientist magazine with the Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain.

hindustantimes.com/Himalayan-glacier-controversy/Article1-707148.aspx
 
Another new study:

While releasing a comprehensive study conducted by Space Application Centre (SAC) on retreating of Himalayan glaciers, Union environment minister Jairam Ramesh on Wednesday claimed that his stand was vindicated on the controversy on pace of retreating of glaciers. Ramesh quoted the findings of the study which found that 75% glaciers are retreating, 8% are advancing and remaining 17% are stable in the Himalayan region.

“This is the largest study ever conducted on glaciers in the world. Total 2190 glaciers were studied for the span of 15years by the scientists of SAC, a unit of ISRO,” Ramesh said at SAC campus in Ahmedabad.

“As per the finding, average pace of retreat is 3.75% a year so at this pace, it would take 400 years to melt all the glaciers in the Himalayan region,” he added, debunking the earlier report of UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) headed by Dr Rajendra Pachauri, which had issued an ‘alarmist warning” that Himalayan glaciers may vanish by 2035.

“When the IPCC released its finding, I had said melting of glaciers in Himalaya is incredibly complex issue and glaciers of Europe and Himalaya have different behavior. I was criticized for my remarks but today, conclusions of this study bears out my stand on the issue,” the minister said, thanking the scientists involved in the exercise for the comprehensive work they have carried out on very contentious issue.

In January 2010, Nobel Prize winning IPCC had in its report stated that Himalayan glaciers may disappear by 2035 on account of impact of climate change and global warning.

However, the report had triggered a controversy, forcing the IPCC to retract the discussion paper from its report with admission that it was a “mistake.” Later, it turned out that the 2035 estimate came not from a peer-reviewed scientific paper but from an interview conducted in 1999 by New Scientist magazine with the Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain.

hindustantimes.com/Himalayan-glacier-controversy/Article1-707148.aspx
I believe that IPCC report Himalayan glaciers may disappear by 2035 ] was also the work of World Wildlife Fund - WWF?
The article, which included a “speculative” claim by Hasnain that the Himalayan glaciers could vanish by 2035, then became part of a 2005 report by the World Wildlife Fund — and that report, apparently, became the source for the IPCC claim.
hindustantimes.com/Himalayan-glacier-controversy/Article1-707148.aspx

It has not been a good week for the IPCC…

climateaudit.org/2011/06/14/ipcc-wg3-and-the-greenpeace-karaoke/
Steve McIntyre has uncovered a blunder on the part of Pachauri and the IPCC that is causing waves of doubt and calls for retooling on both sides of the debate. In a nutshell, the IPCC made yet another inflated claim that:
…80 percent of the world‘s energy supply could be met by renewables by mid-century…
Unfortunately, it has been revealed that this claim is similar to the Himalayan glacier melt by 2035 fiasco, with nothing independent to back it up. Worse, it isn’t the opinion of the IPCC per se, but rather that of Greenpeace. It gets worse.
Steve McIntyre discovered the issue and writes this conclusion:
It is totally unacceptable that IPCC should have had a Greenpeace employee as a Lead Author of the critical Chapter 10, that the Greenpeace employee, as an IPCC Lead Author, should (like Michael Mann and Keith Briffa in comparable situations) have been responsible for assessing his own work and that, with such inadequate and non-independent ‘due diligence’, IPCC should have featured the Greenpeace scenario in its press release on renewables.
Everyone in IPCC WG3 should be terminated and, if the institution is to continue, it should be re-structured from scratch.
Those are strong words from Steve. Read his entire report here.
Elsewhere, the other side of the debate is getting ticked off about this breach of ethics and protocol too. Mark Lynas , author of a popular pro-AGW book, Six Degrees, has written some strong words also: (h/t to Bishop Hill)
New IPCC error: renewables report conclusion was dictated by Greenpeace
Here’s what happened. The 80% by 2050 figure was based on a scenario, so Chapter 10 of the full report reveals, called ER-2010, which does indeed project renewables supplying 77% of the globe’s primary energy by 2050. The lead author of the ER-2010 scenario, however, is a Sven Teske, who should have been identified (but is not) as a climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace International. Even worse, Teske is a lead author of the IPCC report also – in effect meaning that this campaigner for Greenpeace was not only embedded in the IPCC itself, but was in effect allowed to review and promote his own campaigning work under the cover of the authoritative and trustworthy IPCC. A more scandalous conflict of interest can scarcely be imagined.
The IPCC must urgently review its policies for hiring lead authors – and I would have thought that not only should biased ‘grey literature’ be rejected, but campaigners from NGOs should not be allowed to join the lead author group and thereby review their own work. There is even a commercial conflict of interest here given that the renewables industry stands to be the main beneficiary of any change in government policies based on the IPCC report’s conclusions. Had it been an oil industry intervention which led the IPCC to a particular conclusion, Greenpeace et al would have course have been screaming blue murder.
wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/16/a-blunder-of-staggering-proportions-by-the-ipcc/

Thank you for the link 🙂
 
Except that urban sprawl, apart from a bit of a hiatus with the Black Death in the fourteenth century, has been going on for quite a while!

Urbanization in England, for example, is really just the loss of boundaries between towns and villages that have been there for many centuries and were not far apart to begin with …
Well, yes. As time goes on, urbanized footprint spreads, spaces between towns decrease until the towns meld together. Believe it or not, it’s not much different here except that the small towns are only 150 years old typically. Here in Chicagoland, there are dozens of former small towns once surrounded by farmland that have expanded in solid development until you just can’t tell where one ends and the next starts. 100 years ago, a random tornado moving through the area would most likely tear up cornstalks and a farm house or two. Same exact tornado today would cause a hundred million dollars in property damage. Same tornado, but one would have been unreported, the other national headline news. End result is that weather SEEMS like it is getting more severe.
 
Well, yes. As time goes on, urbanized footprint spreads, spaces between towns decrease until the towns meld together. Believe it or not, it’s not much different here except that the small towns are only 150 years old typically. Here in Chicagoland, there are dozens of former small towns once surrounded by farmland that have expanded in solid development until you just can’t tell where one ends and the next starts. 100 years ago, a random tornado moving through the area would most likely tear up cornstalks and a farm house or two. Same exact tornado today would cause a hundred million dollars in property damage. Same tornado, but one would have been unreported, the other national headline news. End result is that weather SEEMS like it is getting more severe.
That doesn’t preclude it having gotten weirder though, does it?

Going back to my original theme, I think the problem that many of us face is lack of faith in the ‘usual suspects’ on either side of the ‘debate/yelling contest’ (delete whichever you think less applicable) that constitutes public debate on the subject.
 
Well, yes. As time goes on, urbanized footprint spreads, spaces between towns decrease until the towns meld together. Believe it or not, it’s not much different here except that the small towns are only 150 years old typically. Here in Chicagoland, there are dozens of former small towns once surrounded by farmland that have expanded in solid development until you just can’t tell where one ends and the next starts. 100 years ago, a random tornado moving through the area would most likely tear up cornstalks and a farm house or two. Same exact tornado today would cause a hundred million dollars in property damage. Same tornado, but one would have been unreported, the other national headline news. End result is that weather SEEMS like it is getting more severe.
I don’t disagree with you. I live in “tornado alley” and when I was growing up there were plenty of tornados. But the area was very lightly populated then. Tornados just didn’t often hit anything but trees out in the woods, or flatten grass somewhere out in the open. Now and then I would discover a tornado’s path through some remote woods while hunting or just roaming, and quite possibly nobody but me knew it had even been there. Tornados tend to “bounce”, or at least they’ll set down, then go back up and set down again, so a lot of times nobody even knew the whole path. You would just see one evidence of it, maybe another on the next hill, but that would be it.

Now, of course, there are a zillion storm chasers out there. They know the radar patterns and go out hunting for tornados and, when they’re there, they find them and track them down to the last centimeter. And, yes, there is a lot more buildup in the country than there was then. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Wichita, Joplin and Springfield Mo are all in Tornado Alley. So are the now-melded, but once tiny towns of Springdale, Bentonville, Fayetteville and Rogers, Ark. St. Louis is at its eastern end. All have grown enormously in geographical extent since I was a kid, and so have the smaller towns that are dotted all around them. It’s a miracle tornados don’t hit populated areas more often than they do. It really is.
 
That doesn’t preclude it having gotten weirder though, does it?
No, it doesn’t, actually. What it demonstrates is that things are more complicated than most of us suspect.

Another example: Child safety. When I was a kid, nobody thought it unusual for a 1st grader to walk a mile to school by himself or go play with peers unsupervised for hours at a time on a Saturday.

Today, you’d probably get a visit from DCFS (state child protectors) or at the very least the shocked horror of all your neighbors. The ironic thing is that there was MORE sexual abuse of kids in the general public in the 1970’s than there is today (John Jay report). But nobody believes that because the news coverage of it skews their perception.
 
I was at my girlfriend’s house in St Louis Missouri(I am from Southern Ontario)when I heard air raid sirens go off and was rather startled and asked what it was.“Tornado warnings,we’d better get to the basement”. Hours after she flew out of St Louis part of the airport was DEMOLISHED by tornadoes.A friend in Arkansas experienced five in one day.
We get tornadoes but hardly as frequently and the area I live in is very sparsely populated and while hunting I have found great swaths of trees just pushed over and splintered in a long line.

We have one of the few surviving drive-ins in Canada if not North america.When the movie Twister was scheduled to play later that evening a REAL twister hit,took out 1 of 4 screens and a grove of oaks.Luckily no one was injured as the movie was not scheduled to start for several hours.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top