The acknowledgement of a higher likelihood of an event does not mean that I think that event is the one that actually happens.
Take a loaded die… it will tend to fall on a particular face, but not always. That particular face has an increased likelihood of turning up, but at each roll, we can’t tell on which it will land. Do I know where the die will land, prior to throwing it?, no, hence I withhold judgement on that. I’m not much of a gambler.
OK, that harmonises those two. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to work that well with the fact that you have called atheism your “working assumption”… That does seem to be a kind of judgement - especially, given that I fail to see any practical difference between this “working assumption” and holding the belief… It is not like you are going to Mass with probability of, let’s say, 0.001…
First, don’t know… What other steps are there?.. just don’t assume the conclusion…
So, you avoid “self-delusion” by: 1) avoiding to accept any statement that might bring you closer to belief in God and 2) not assuming the conclusion…? That’s it?
Given how specific the first part is (and how vague the second part is), this strategy looks just like a strategy to guard your faith in non-existence of God…
That is, I’m afraid that it can defend “self-delusion” at least as easily, as it can guard against it…
Second… I’m not sure about conspiracy theorists, but maybe, yes… alien abductees, also come to mind… and those Near-Death Experiences…
That was a bit unexpected… So, just to be sure, what exactly do you mean by “self-delusion”…?
First, there’s this book, written in Portuguese, with a title that translates to “The Anthropology of Religions”, by a Portuguese author… I’m sure there’s something similar in English by some other guy… it goes through some of the religions in the world, describes how people in each culture believe in it, how it gets carried from one generation to another, etc… ultimately, they all look very similar.
Second, only interested in how they affect people’s behaviors and beliefs… not interested in such details as the claimed miracles for each deity in each religion…
OK, so, you are saying that you believe that evidence for all religions is very similar, and the basis for that is just 1 (one) book, by an anthropologist (“soft scientist”), and the one that doesn’t even
discuss evidence for different religions?
You know, flipping a coin would seem to be a more reliable method to find out the truth and avoid “self-delusion”…
Does it have to be as thorough as you think I should?
If you want to find out if ten sticks have “very similar” length (let’s say, within 1 mm), you have to measure all of them with great accuracy (more accurate than that 1 mm). Likewise, if you want to find out if all religions have “very similar” evidence, you have to check evidence for every single religion.
Or you have to weaken your claim. However, given how you have described your investigation, I’m afraid that it will have to be weakened all the way to “Some religions exist.”…
Ah, but in that case it was “obviously meant to be fictional”. How about those cases when it’s not “obviously meant to be fictional”?
There are things written that claim to be true accounts of events. How do we discern the ones that are actually true accounts and those that are fictional accounts?
How? “With great difficulty”, perhaps…? But, seriously, how is that relevant to this discussion?