Clinton Up 6 on Trump in Two-Way Race in Bloomberg National Poll

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I’m not sure it’s the media. It’s the direct quotes. And the tweets. And the interviews.

I’m not understanding the loyalty.
I agree. It is unfathomable to me that anyone who repeatedly makes such ugly, ignorant and divisive remarks has been able to retain any support from decent people at all. I guess it’s because so many folks (understandably) loathe HRC that they will ignore or excuse anything Trump says, no matter how outrageous. In fact, the more outrageous his actions, the more they dig in. Just makes me shake my head.

Write-in or 3rd party for me.
 
Trump, and some of his supporters, are doing exactly what Romney did in 2012 and it (helped) cost him the election. They, too, kept saying the polls were skewed and it turned out that they really weren’t. Sure, there were discrepencies and some were more accurate than others but, by and large, they were right. If anything, Obama won some close states by more than predicted because the Obama organization on the ground out performed the Romney ground team. While the Romney team was was telling themselves the polls were wrong, the Obama team was out in the field working their tails off to make sure the polls were right. Even Romney’s people admit that now.

That’s the truly under-reported story of this election-Trumps abysmal, practically non-existent ground game. There are swing states where Trump has yet to open field offices and other states where he has one or two offices but they are hardly staffed. Meanwhile, in those same states, Hillary has dozens of offices fully staffed with workers registering new voters (who usually don’t show up in these polls at all) and coordinating neighborhood teams to get their voters to the polls. I read a little article in a California paper recently that said Hillary had so many volunteers there they were sending them to Nevada to help register voters in Hispanic communities. So while Trump is scrambling to catch-up in the much needed purple states, Hillary is expanding operations into red states.

I actually think, based on Trumps poor ground game, these polls may be underestimating Hillary’s ultimate victory margin. He still has time to improve his ground game, and there is talk that that is on the front burner, but it’s getting a bit late for that. Early voting starts soon in some of the states where Trump has yet to even open an office! You can bet Hillary’s team is all over that. That hurts his best chance of winning, an October surprise, because by October Hillary will have already “banked” millions of votes through early voting while Trump is still playing catch-up on the basics.
You seem to be correct in your assessment. I remember a Politico article where the ground game mastermind operative behind Cruz’s primary wins (and everyone agrees that the Cruz campaign excelled at the ground game) throught that Trump was basically insane for not having a good ground game. He said on a bad day it makes a difference of 2.5 percentage points, and on a good day one of up to 5.5 points. He also said that Clinton’s campaign excelled at the ground game.

Like you I expect that the polls therefore may actually underestimate Hillary’s victory margin. She may win by double digits, barring some October surprise or such.
 
I agree. It is unfathomable to me that anyone who repeatedly makes such ugly, ignorant and divisive remarks has been able to retain any support from decent people at all. I guess it’s because so many folks (understandably) loathe HRC that they will ignore or excuse anything Trump says, no matter how outrageous. In fact, the more outrageous his actions, the more they dig in. Just makes me shake my head.
Yes, when it comes to Trump, sheer Hate for Hillary severely clouds the rational judgment of otherwise rational people.
 
washingtonexaminer.com/
Report: Trump exhausted, bewildered
As Trump slips in national and state polls, New York Times reports he is ‘often sullen.’
Just saw this - it is the New York Times, but, still, I don’t think the Trump funk can be glossed over. He is in serious, serious trouble. Sounds like he needs a day or two at the beach, then a reset. It is like the Romney 47% thing - Trump as psycho, Trump as loser is neutralizing and overshadowing whatever themes he may be trying to get out there - and we do need the option of opposition to Clinton’s policies. From somebody.

History will dissect Trump’s failure as (1) not uniting conservatives and (2) not expanding beyond his original primary base. Just plain not being fit for taking on the media, establishment machine.

Or this could be his low point. Good time for it.
 
Just saw this - it is the New York Times, but, still, I don’t think the Trump funk can be glossed over. He is in serious, serious trouble. Sounds like he needs a day or two at the beach, then a reset. It is like the Romney 47% thing - Trump as psycho, Trump as loser is neutralizing and overshadowing whatever themes he may be trying to get out there - and we do need the option of opposition to Clinton’s policies. From somebody.

History will dissect Trump’s failure as (1) not uniting conservatives and (2) not expanding beyond his original primary base. Just plain not being fit for taking on the media, establishment machine.

Or this could be his low point. Good time for it.
It’s hard to imagine how Trump could unite Conservative voters when he himself is not Conservative. Also, he has said repeatedly that HE is the one who can fix everything and that he’ll do it with or without the GOP leaders in Washington and across the country.

I live in Georgia and Georgia is light blue for the 1st time since Bill Clinton won here. Hillary is leading handily in every single swing state.

Trump’s path to 270 is minuscule. I believe now and have believed from the beginning that it will be a Democrat blow-out. And then Trump will take the long vacation that he (and the nation) so desperately deserve.
 
Like you I expect that the polls therefore may actually underestimate Hillary’s victory margin. She may win by double digits, barring some October surprise or such.
I predict a Clinton win by the largest margin we have seen in quite some time.

I believe that most Trump supporters actually know that he will not win-- it is just too hard for them to admit.
 
If clinton wins the states need to call an article 5 CCC. They need to amend the constitution creating a 4th check and balance. The states have to limit the power of the federal government.
Here is a great example of an amendment.

“Congress shall make no law that applies to the citizens of the United States that does not apply equally to the Senators and Representatives; and, Congress shall make no law that applies to the Senators and Representatives that does not apply equally to the citizens of the United States.”

But the one I think would be best is the states with a majority could overturn and federal law or regulations, any executive order, or any ruling of the supreme court.
 
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/
Report: Trump exhausted, bewildered
As Trump slips in national and state polls, New York Times reports he is ‘often sullen.’

Just saw this - it is the New York Times, but, still, I don’t think the Trump funk can be glossed over. He is in serious, serious trouble. Sounds like he needs a day or two at the beach, then a reset.
He has been on a weird twitter rant about this all day. That story really must have gotten under his skin.
 
According to the following, Independents made up 29% in 2012: ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

The Bloomberg poll has them at 42% in their poll sample… why?! I doubt Independents have increased by 13 points in under four years?!
No. But they’re also the most important group to sample in an election since they largely determine who will win, at least traditionally. Democrats typically vote Democrat (and indeed 93% of Dems last I saw were behind Hillary), and Republicans typically vote Republican (Trump has captured a smaller portion of this base so far in that same report 74 or 78% as I recall). It’s the independents where the votes swing as they do in swing states. And if they’re swinging Clinton, she’s going to be the next president.
 
Yes, when it comes to Trump, sheer Hate for Hillary severely clouds the rational judgment of otherwise rational people.
To be fair, that sentiment is going both ways this election. At last check, over 50% of both Trump and Clinton’s supporters were the so called “nose holders” who are voting for them despite not liking them. Trump a small amount more than Clinton (54% to 50%), but for both party’s candidate to be not liked by those voting for them is unprecedented as far back as they tracked such things. And mind you those number were from before the conventions and recent revelations about both candidates. Not to mention the fact that more and more of those picking a side were undecideds who to the point of that poll hadn’t been enamored enough with either candidate to pick them.

This could well end up being the first election where the winner’s only claim to “mandate” is that they’re slightly less hated than the other candidate.
 
Among Washington elites, Hillary Clinton leads by 40 points

Beltway insiders prefer Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump by overwhelming margins, a new poll conducted by Echelon Insights for the Washington Examiner reveals.

Democrat Hillary Clinton won 62 percent of Washington elites polled, compared to 22 percent supporting Republican nominee Donald Trump. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson pulled in 3 percent, while the remainder (14 percent) said they would support some other candidate, not vote, or were undecided. (The poll was conducted before conservative independent Evan McMullin entered the race.)

washingtonexaminer.com/among-washington-elites-hillary-clinton-leads-by-40-points/article/2599378#.V7Oex_bQbCg.twitter
 
17-16 right now. 43.5% to 41%. This certainly wouldn’t appear to bode well for Trump.

Did a search and in 2012 nearly 70% of CAF posters supported Romney.

forums.catholic-questions.org/showthread.php?t=714338
Possibly you’re right, but I’m not sure it means anything. Looking around, I don’t see many of the really serious Hillary Clinton opponent posters or outright Trump supporters in this thread just yet.

And one can’t tell this is a “poll thread” just by looking at the list of threads.
 
Rasmussen

Hillary Clinton 41%, Donald Trump 39%, Gary Johnson 9%, Jill Stein 3%… tinyurl.com/z4q3c8s
That poll seems to put to bed the notion that Johnson is pulling significantly from the Democratic voter base (4%). Particularly when compared to his pull from the GOP base and Indy voters. (11% and 12% respectively)
 
New Pew poll shows race tightening w registered voters

41% Clinton
37% Trump
10% Johnson
4% Stein

people-press.org/2016/08/18/1-voters-general-election-preferences/
Interesting trends. Minorities are more likely to vote Clinton, whites more likely Trump . The more education you’ve received the more likely to vote Clinton. The religiously unaffiliated are more likely to vote Clinton. And interesting from a CAF perspective, Catholics seem divided right down the middle between Clinton and Trump.
 
Interesting trends. Minorities are more likely to vote Clinton, whites more likely Trump . The more education you’ve received the more likely to vote Clinton. The religiously unaffiliated are more likely to vote Clinton. And interesting from a CAF perspective, Catholics seem divided right down the middle between Clinton and Trump.
As a rule, the Catholic vote is the Presidential vote. Catholics elected Obama (twice) and Catholics will elect Hillary (soon). I am deeply appreciative of the Catholic vote.
 
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