Cruz Thread

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But Cruz polls badly against her as well. In any event, what do polls really know about the general election at this stage of the game?
Where are these polls where Cruz polls “badly”?

In every poll I’ve seen, and I think most of them either under-sample or exactly sample republicans from outdated registration data, Cruz is close to the Democratic frontunner in nearly every purple state with the exception of Michigan, but she’s still not clearing 50%.

Polls about the general election don’t mean as much because the GOP race is still a three-man affair, it’s possible but unlikely the Democrat frontunner has to quit for legal reasons, and who knows what Romney and the others are planning for the convention which is looking like it will be contested.

The polls at this point have much more potential to swing in favor of republicans than democrats for a whole host of reasons.
 
Heidi’s picture was also readily available.
I much prefer trump to cruz. Whenever I see cruz’s eyes, they look to me calculating, canniving, and untrustworthy to me. But that’s just me.
Well, I’m sorry to hear if one doesn’t like Ted Cruz’s eyes, but I should think his common- sense record of opposing GOP/DEM/IND establishment nonsense would be something the frontrunner’s supports would like.

After all, this is a presidential election, not a Mr. Universe contest. 😃
 
Peter J. You said:
In the meantime if, say, in such-and-such state Kasich gets 25% of the vote, Cruz 35%, and Trump 40%, then Trump wins it. Granted, voters might say “This candidate has no chance of winning. I won’t vote for him because I want my vote to count.” but they also might not.
Yes you are certainly correct.

I think this “no chance of winning” for Kasich is why all the pundits are musing that Kasich is delusional, megalomaniacal, or “tag-teaming” with Trump in some sense (i.e. auditioning to be Trump’s VP nominee pick).

Considering Kasich has said, he absolutely positively would NOT be anyone’s VP nominee under any circumstance, and assuming Kasich is telling the truth, Kasich should drop out for the good of the party. Kasich should drop out even for the good of the country first and quit embarrassing himself in this race.

As we move East though, Kasich MAY actually siphon some votes away from Trump in Cruz’s favor in some states.

Cruz is clearly the “Constitutional Conservative”.
Trump is obviously the “populist”.

Both Cruz and Trump are in some sense “insurgents” and both are in some sense Washington insiders.

Cruz by virtue of his Senate seat, Trump by virtue of his “I give money to all of them (politicians) and they do things for me” relationships with long-standing Washington politicians, especially the liberals/progressives.

Kasich in my opinion, is clearly the “Establishment Candidate” remaining but again, I don’t think the “Establishment” ultimately WANTS Kasich because he has poor name recognition and seems like a weak money raiser. I am not saying they would “reject” Kasich, I am just saying they do not prefer him.

Establishment Republicans might even sacrifice Kasich for a Hillary victory (attempting to keep control of the Party’s reigns).

Kasich at times tries to distance himself from the “Establishment” label because the voters are so fed up with “Washington Establishment” politicians that push Globalism policies over American citizens.

Kasich tries to label himself as non-establishment at the debates for example).

I don’t believe it for a variety of reasons, below is just one.

This was interesting (at least to me).

The other night Bret Baier was interviewing John Kasich and matter-of-factly Baier discussed the lack of appeal to the American public with an Establishment candidate in a manner that ASSUMES Kasich to be the “Establishment candidate”.

You can see it here beginning at about 2:47 into the video segment.

At this point if Kasich REALLY thought of himself as anti-establishment or at least NON establishment, you would expect Kasich to reply to Baier saying something like: “Well that may be so Bret, but I am NOT “Washington Establishment”. (But Kasich IS Washington establishment)

But Kasich responds nothing like that.

**Kasich DENIES the American public is fed-up with Washington Establishment policies! **

(In this context and considering what Kasich has said before, I found that amazing)

Then Kasich tries to say polls are not important, but only seconds earlier in this exact same interview Kasich was citing . . . . (you guessed it) . . . . Michigan exit polls as part of his reasoning for staying in the race!

Kasich of course IS Establishment Washington.
Kasich is a Global Authority guy. A Global Warming Guy (which in “today-speak” is part of the same as a “Global Authority guy” in my opinion).
Kasich when he was in Congress, supported and helped Bill Clinton pass the Clinton Gun Ban regulation (or so called “Assault Weapons Ban” which was based in large part on the “appearance” of certain fire arms).
(Cruz needs to point THIS Kasich-Gun-Banning out frequently to the people of Wisconsin!)
Kasich after his time in Washington went and worked in a high-ranking position in a Global Banking firm that went bankrupt and cost US taxpayers incalculable dollars in TARP money.
Kasich publicly rebuked Kim Davis on the religious liberty issue.
Kasich has his abortion “exceptions”.
Kasich favors “Common Core”.

And on and on and on. Kasich is a virtual walking “Washington Republican Establishment Platform”.

It is CLEAR Kasich is a Washington Establishment guy. An uninspiring one, but an “Establishment guy” never the less.

So it was REALLY interesting (to me at least) when Baier asked him about America and their frustration with Washington Establishment people Kasich denied America is mad at the Washington Establishment!

But how could anybody think that? Just look at ANY Congressional approval poll.

Even the Democrats are frustrated with THEIR Democrat Establishment people too.

Is Kasich REALLY this out of touch with how everyday Americans think? Or was he telling “stretchers”? Or in all fairness, maybe the question just slipped by him.

Keep all of this in the back of your mind the next time you hear Kasich try to claim he is NOT “Establishment Washington”.
 
Free Beacon Poll: Cruz Expands Lead Over Trump in Wisconsin
Cruz’s 4.8 percent lead expands dramatically if Kasich drops out
BY: Lachlan Markay
March 25, 2016 4:56 am
Ted Cruz holds a modest lead over Donald Trump in Wisconsin two weeks before that state’s winner-take-all Republican primary, according to a new Washington Free Beacon poll.
The Basswood Research survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters, conducted on March 19 and 20, shows the Texas senator leading Trump by 4.8 points, 36.2 to 31.4. Ohio Gov. John Kasich trails with 20.8.
Cruz’s lead expands dramatically in a head-to-head contest with Trump. If Kasich were to drop out before the primary . . .
You can see the whole article here.
 
You can see the whole article here.
I think it was on cnn, they talked about with the remaining delegates, how much each candidate needed for the nomination.

I believe trump needs 47% of the remaining delegates for the nomination, Cruz 83%, and kasich 120%. I think kasich is the best choice of the 3 by a lot, but if I’m him, I would get out, put my support to Cruz. If Cruz gets the nomination maybe he gets the vp nod. Or if trump nor Cruz gets the delegates needed, maybe then, he gets the nomination.
 
What I find funny is that I’m still seeing articles that claim Donald Trump is not the most extreme right wing candidate in the race, but rather Cruz is, and I remember that before the first primaries, more than one political pundit was saying a Cruz nomination would be a disaster for the GOP.
 
What I find funny is that I’m still seeing articles that claim Donald Trump is not the most extreme right wing candidate in the race, but rather Cruz is, and I remember that before the first primaries, more than one political pundit was saying a Cruz nomination would be a disaster for the GOP.
Cruz is easily the most extreme right wing candidate, and his nomination would be a disaster for the GOP. Trump is not either left wing or right wing - politics is not really arrayed along a single straight-line axis like that. Trump is extreme in other ways, and would be a disaster in other ways.
 
Where are these polls where Cruz polls “badly”?

In every poll I’ve seen, and I think most of them either under-sample or exactly sample republicans from outdated registration data, Cruz is close to the Democratic frontunner in nearly every purple state with the exception of Michigan, but she’s still not clearing 50%.

Polls about the general election don’t mean as much because the GOP race is still a three-man affair, it’s possible but unlikely the Democrat frontunner has to quit for legal reasons, and who knows what Romney and the others are planning for the convention which is looking like it will be contested.

The polls at this point have much more potential to swing in favor of republicans than democrats for a whole host of reasons.
Only Fox has Cruz beating Clinton, though one other poll has a tie!:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

Everyone, including Fox, now sees Clinton beating Trump, though:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

I agree that polls don’t mean much right now. We are just at the end of March; the general isn’t until November, so polls can change significantly. We need to take polls about the general more seriously in July and August. However, based on today’s data, it would seem Cruz is the most viable GOP candidate.
 
Well, I’m sorry to hear if one doesn’t like Ted Cruz’s eyes, but I should think his common- sense record of opposing GOP/DEM/IND establishment nonsense would be something the frontrunner’s supports would like.

After all, this is a presidential election, not a Mr. Universe contest. 😃
You are so right, just like being First Lady is not a beauty contest. I really don’t care what they look like as long as they are bathed and well groomed. Rubio was by far the best looking, and it didn’t get him far in this race.
 
Only Fox has Cruz beating Clinton, though one other poll has a tie!:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

Everyone, including Fox, now sees Clinton beating Trump, though:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

I agree that polls don’t mean much right now. We are just at the end of March; the general isn’t until November, so polls can change significantly. We need to talk polls about the general more seriously in July and August. However, based on today’s data, it would seem Cruz is the most viable GOP candidate.
I agree that polls for the general don’t mean much yet. In my view, Cruz has two serious problems if he is the nominee. First is the electoral map. What states is Cruz going to flip from blue to red in November? I don’t see him flipping enough states to win. The second is his actual policy positions. Because the GOP is deciding their nomination on the basis of genital size and wife-hotness, they have not really explored issues much. Cruz’s stance on the issues is extreme, and will cause him serious problems with moderates, women, minorities, and pretty much everyone but his base.
 
I agree that polls for the general don’t mean much yet. In my view, Cruz has two serious problems if he is the nominee. First is the electoral map. What states is Cruz going to flip from blue to red in November? I don’t see him flipping enough states to win. The second is his actual policy positions. Because the GOP is deciding their nomination on the basis of genital size and wife-hotness, they have not really explored issues much. Cruz’s stance on the issues is extreme, and will cause him serious problems with moderates, women, minorities, and pretty much everyone but his base.
I agree with you.
 
You are so right, just like being First Lady is not a beauty contest.
Indeed. You’d think that people would at least pretend not to care about which candidate and/or candidate’s family has the best looks.

Is this where Reality TV has brought us?
 
I agree that polls for the general don’t mean much yet. In my view, Cruz has two serious problems if he is the nominee. First is the electoral map. What states is Cruz going to flip from blue to red in November? I don’t see him flipping enough states to win. The second is his actual policy positions. Because the GOP is deciding their nomination on the basis of genital size and wife-hotness, they have not really explored issues much. Cruz’s stance on the issues is extreme, and will cause him serious problems with moderates, women, minorities, and pretty much everyone but his base.
There will be a choice of VP. Cruz may choose somebody who will help with demographics that he may be struggling with and/or somebody who can help to flip a state or states red. Trump may do the same if he is the nominee. But if the outlook is just so negative for Cruz and probably Trump too, and they are doing so badly with so many different demograhics, that it looks like they would have little to chance to win looking at the polls, why will the Clinton campaign, super pacs etc. probably spend hundreds of millions of dollars against whoever the Republican nominee is, maybe even up to or over $1 billion dollars? Because this is not in the bag for Clinton. Although she does better than Trump on various polled issues, she still has high negatives, only 8% less than Trump in a CNN poll, and that is saying something, when you consider the outrageous and controversial things Trump has said and done. There is also the possibility she could be indicted. Neither Cruz nor Trump may even end up as the nominee.
 
Indeed. You’d think that people would at least pretend not to care about which candidate and/or candidate’s family has the best looks.

Is this where Reality TV has brought us?
It has always been thus. Trust is always an important factor. And, when you don’t get to personally meet someone (even when you do) appearance is an important initial thing that all of us use. Would you trust a banker dressed like an escapee from duck dynasty? Would you trust a salesman that had a sweat sheen even though you were inside an air conditioned store? Would you trust a pilot with a red nose associated with over drinking?

So while looks aren’t the only factor, they tend to be an initial one that colors succeeding opinions. Why do you think there is th saying ‘First impressions matter’?
 
It has always been thus. Trust is always an important factor. And, when you don’t get to personally meet someone (even when you do) appearance is an important initial thing that all of us use. Would you trust a banker dressed like an escapee from duck dynasty? Would you trust a salesman that had a sweat sheen even though you were inside an air conditioned store? Would you trust a pilot with a red nose associated with over drinking?

So while looks aren’t the only factor, they tend to be an initial one that colors succeeding opinions. Why do you think there is th saying ‘First impressions matter’?
But there’s a big difference between, for example, an interviewer thinking “Has this person made himself or herself suitwbly presentable?” and the same interviewer thinking “Is this person hot enough for me to want to hire?” Big difference.
 
But there’s a big difference between, for example, an interviewer thinking “Has this person made himself or herself suitwbly presentable?” and the same interviewer thinking “Is this person hot enough for me to want to hire?” Big difference.
There is not really much of a difference since the interviewer might be thinking, for example, “Is this person TOO hot for me to hire?” together with whether the person is suitable for the job in terms of his credentials. The fact is the credibility factor, which consists of expertise and trustworthiness, AND the likability factor, which consists of physical attractiveness and personality, are BOTH of great importance across a wide variety of situations.
 
But there’s a big difference between, for example, an interviewer thinking “Has this person made himself or herself suitwbly presentable?” and the same interviewer thinking “Is this person hot enough for me to want to hire?” Big difference.
I agree with you. All of the candidates look like they shower at least daily and wear clean clothes. I’m sure not a fan of Clinton’s wardrobe, but I’d never base my vote on it. Her clothes do look clean and pressed. Same for Sanders and all the Republican candidates. They all look clean and well groomed. No one is sloppy. Whether they look like they could grace the cover of “GQ” or “Cosmopolitan” is irrelevant to me.
 
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