December Republican Primary Poll

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smndtupidisaftr said:
Rasmussen, the same polling group that was the most off before the 2008 election? 🙂
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Your information is incorrect.

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to an analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
Also, remember that Rasmussen polls Republicans, whereas others poll likely caucus voters.
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No, the poll is of likely caucus attendees, see:

rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus
 
gilliam said:
Your information is incorrect.

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to an analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
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fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Guess I had the year wrong.
No, the poll is of likely caucus attendees, see:

rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus
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I must have gotten some bad information then. Either way, Paul is on the rise in Iowa, even for Rasmussen. But I believe this is a statistical tie between Paul and Romney, right?
 
smndtupidisaftr said:
I must have gotten some bad information then. Either way, Paul is on the rise in Iowa, even for Rasmussen. But I believe this is a statistical tie between Paul and Romney, right?
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The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points, so it is outside the margin of error. In other words, they are close, but it is not a statistical tie.

But who is a likely caucus goer? Not just someone who says they are. Since most young people are not highly motivated (especially on Jan 3rd) to spend that morning in a caucus. Expect older, and retired people to attend. And in IA, they tend not to be Paul voters. That is my 2-cents.
 
It’s +/- for each proportion, at least as far as I remember. So that would be a tie.
 
Romney says Gingrich can’t take the heat, so Gingrich challenges him to a one-on-one debate

“Mitt Romney says if Newt Gingrich can’t stand the heat coming from his allies, then just wait until President Obama starts coming after him.” - USA Today

“A look of utter disbelief crossed Newt Gingrich’s face Wednesday when a reporter told him that Mitt Romney had suggested earlier that Mr. Gingrich could not stand the heat of a presidential campaign. Mr. Gingrich stared at the reporter for several seconds, speechless.” - New York Times

Newt responds: “Newt Gingrich threw down a “debate me in Iowa’’ challenge to his chief Republican rival, Mitt Romney, on Wednesday night, hours after Mr. Romney said in a television interview that Mr. Gingrich should stop complaining about negative advertising.” - New York Times

The perils of not being organized: Newt has to take time out of Iowa campaign to get on Virginia ballot

“Gingrich will campaign in the state Wednesday and Thursday, even though its GOP presidential primary isn’t until March. And therein lies the problem. The former House speaker has been struggling to amass enough signatures to get on the Virginia ballot before Thursday’s deadline. He needs 10,000—and at least 400 from every congressional district.” - LA Times

Dorothy Rabinowitz: Ron Paul is a propagandist for our chief enemies in the world - WSJ

Bachmann fans in Iowa have a dilemma: they love her, but don’t think she’s a credible candidate - Politico

New Hampshire observers find Huntsman’s campaign confusing - Daily Caller

Karl Rove: How Obama will run in 2012

“Lacking a popular record or constructive agenda, Mr. Obama will resort to ad hominem attacks on Republicans. The president, who in 2008 spoke constantly about healing divisions, seems to relish being an attack dog. So he’ll say Republicans don’t just disagree with him; they want to harm the nation. He’ll label any dissent as unpatriotic. … Dividing Americans along class lines and pretending the last three years are someone else’s responsibility may be therapeutic for the president and his liberal followers. But it’s hard to see it working.” - Karl Rove for the WSJ ($)

RNC chairman promises to make Fast and Furious a 2012 election theme - Daily Caller

Philip Klein: Blame Bush if you don’t like the GOP 2012 field

“Though Bush inherited a GOP-controlled Congress in 2001, eight years later his party had lost the presidency as well as both chambers of Congress – and the Senate soon became filibuster-proof for Democrats. But it also had the detrimental effect by weakening the bench of potential conservative presidential candidates. Between 2001 and 2009, Republicans who were in the typical grooming positions for the presidency got coaxed into supporting Bush’s big government policies – all of which makes them less appealing to today’s Tea Party electorate.” - Philip Klein for the Washington Examiner

NRSC Outraises Democratic committee in November - Roll Call

Obama is achieving his goal of higher energy costs - Washington Examiner editorial
 
Republican Candidates to Join Pro-Life Forum Next Week:

lifenews.com/2011/12/22/republican-candidates-to-join-pro-life-forum-next-week/

Having been a frontrunner weeks ago, now Newt Gingrich tries to lower expectations for an Iowa victory

“Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich on Thursday seemed to be lowering expectations for the upcoming Iowa caucuses, saying he’d be happy with a third or fourth place finish. “My goal is to be the top three or four [in Iowa],” the former House speaker said at a campaign stop in Richmond, Virginia. “I’d love to win.”” - CNN

Newt blames Romney for his drop in support: ““There was a period when I was the frontrunner, but frankly if you get $7 [million] or $9 million in ads – most of them false – the sheer weight of negativity has a real impact,” the former House speaker told reporters.” - Politico

“In a fresh sign in his pledge to run a positive campaign, Newt Gingrich reportedly is getting ready to unleash a “Pets with Newt” website and a music education video featuring his wife, Callista.” - USA Today

Romney turns down Gingrich debate challenge out of ‘respect’ for rest of field - The Hill

Latest Iowa polling: Romney leads, Paul second, and Gingrich close behind

“The new Rasmussen Reports survey of Iowa caucus participants shows Romney on top with 25% of the vote followed by Paul at 20% and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 17%.” -Rasmussen Reports

“With just three in ten saying things are going well in the country today and 70% saying they are going badly, economic issues are still the main priority for the country this holiday season.” - CNN

More than two million voters have left the Republican and Democratic parties since 2008

“A USA TODAY analysis of state voter registration statistics shows registered Democrats declined in 25 of the 28 states that register voters by party. Republicans dipped in 21 states, while independents increased in 18 states. The trend is acute in states that are key to next year’s presidential race. In the eight swing states that register voters by party, Democrats’ registration is down by 800,000 and Republicans’ by 350,000. Independents have gained 325,000.” - USA Today

Popular New Mexico governor could be on VP shortlist - Susanza Martinez - Daily Caller
 
_Abyssinia said:
Susana Martinez shows how Republicans might one day woo Latinos - The Economist
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Thanks for the link Aby. I always wondered why so many women and minorities could not see how they are being held down by the shallow culture. It’s good to see Ms. Martinez see through it. Women and minorities are the key to this election, IMO. Women would prefer to have a non-distracted man who will help love and raise the kids, but this culture is too much of a distraction for men, and it’s getting worse. The cuture has killed the messages of sacrificial love and the safety nets have allowed too many men to shed depth and responsibility. THis is the message that people need to hear.
 
Iowa caucus near, race is still up in the air - New York Times

For all of the media hoopla, GOP caucusgoers in the Hawkeye State have a poor record of choosing their party’s eventual nominee - Michael Barone in the Wall Street Journal

The American Spectator concludes that Basic Organization is one of Romney’s winning strengths.

“Mitt The Massachusetts Moderate” - MSNBC notes the Gingrich campaign’s full throttle attack on Romney.

Gingrich once applauded the Romney healthcare plan that he now attacks - Wall Street Journal | ABC

Documents appear to contradict Gingrich’s account that his first wife sought divorce - New York Times | CNN

“The dynamics couldn’t be better for us,” says a senior Romney strategist. “I don’t see any scenario where we’re not the nominee.” - Politico

Rick Santorum goes shooting with Iowa’s evangelical congressman Steve King but doesn’t bag an endorsement - LA Times

The Tea Party Express offered its “support” to Michele Bachmann but the leading conservative activist group stopped short of officially endorsing the Minnesotan - Roll Call

This cycle’s 13 GOP White House candidates have collected nearly $90 million — about 40 percent less than the $150 million that the 10 GOP contenders had raised at the same point in the 2008 cycle - Roll Call

Those denouncing the conservative establishment don’t seem to realize they’re apart of it - Jonah Goldberg in the LA Times

According to the latest Gallup tracking poll, more Americans approve of the job that President Obama is doing than disapprove for the first time since this summer - Politico

BUT… “The economy in 2012 is likely to sway Mr. Obama’s fate in his fall re-election campaign, and there he still has far to go before winning an edge among voters. The WSJ-NBC poll found 39% of Americans approve of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, with 57% disapproving.” - WSJ

In the Washington Post E J Dionne warns the GOP that it might beat Obama if it makes the election about the economy but lose if it promises consequential reforms.

Rasmussen poll shows most voters want gov’t spending reduced - HotAir

The Obama administration is wrong to compare today’s problems to those of the Great Depression

“In the progressive era, the country was young and vibrant. The job was to impose economic order. Today, the country is middle-aged but self-indulgent. Bad habits have accumulated. Interest groups have emerged to protect the status quo. The job is to restore old disciplines, strip away decaying structures and reform the welfare state. The country needs a productive midlife crisis.” - David Brooks in the New York Times

"Obama’s green-technology program was infused with politics at every level"

“The Washington Post found in an analysis of thousands of memos, company records and internal *e-mails. Political considerations were raised repeatedly by company investors, Energy Department bureaucrats and White House officials.”

“Disturbing revelations continue to emerge about how more than half a billion dollars of taxpayer dollars were shoveled into the Solyndra solar-panel boondoggle. It is becoming increasingly clear that the only “green” involved in this scandal is money.” - Washington Times
 
Mitt Romney in striking distance of Iowa win - Politico

Mark Halperin says Romney’s campaign has been charmed and crafty — and is now positioned to pull off a decisive Hawkeye masterstroke - TIME

For Romney, stealth campaign brings real hopes of winning Iowa - Washington Post

In Iowa, Romney Ignores Rivals, Targets Obama - NPR

John Hinderaker at PowerLine backs Romney: “It is time for Republicans to get serious. After flirting with just about every candidate in a large presidential field, is is time to come home to the one candidate who has the demonstrated ability to run the largest organization in the United States, the Executive Branch of the federal government; who has never been touched by the slightest taint of scandal; whose success in the private sector makes him the outsider that Republicans say they are looking for; and who has by far the best chance of beating President Obama: Mitt Romney.”

It’s Get-Ron-Paul-Time

“Newt Gingrich said Tuesday he wouldn’t vote for Ron Paul if the Texas congressman won the 2012 GOP nomination. Speaking to CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, Gingrich slammed Paul as out of line with mainstream Republican viewpoints, including his stance on Israel, Iran, and September 11.” - CNN

Republican rivals unleash broadside on Paul in Iowa - New York Times

Don’t believe the mythology about Iowa, voting has tracked the national campaign - Michael Crowley for TIME

2012 in Brief:

“I want to be America’s Margaret Thatcher,” Bachmann said. “I want to be America’s Iron Lady.” - CBS
“Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, has been touted as the sleeper candidate by none other than 2008 Iowa caucuses winner Mike Huckabee.” - Fox

The Iowa caucus will begin to thin the Republican field as those without a solid organization will become electoral roadkill - Daily Beast

Perry sues Virginia elections board to gain ballot access - HotAir

Perry shifts abortion views: No exception for rape, incest - LA Times | CBS

Appealing to Evangelicals, Hopefuls Pack Religion Into Ads - New York Times

Hispanic Susana Martinez Has Conservative Cred, High Approval Ratings… and speculation about her being a good VP choice grows - Roll Call

What should be encouraging all of the Republican candidates is the lead a generic Republican has over President Obama in the latest polls - Pete du Pont in the Wall Street Journal

Du Pont also lists the six things that most unite the GOP candidates:
  1. Less government spending
  2. Lower taxes on businesses and individuals
  3. Repeal of ObamaCare and Medicare reform
  4. Opening up energy production to the vast U.S. resources
  5. Free-er trade
  6. And finally, getting the government out of the business of picking winners and losers
One good idea each from the seven Republican presidential candidates - Ross Douthat in the New York Times

Political endorsements don’t mean a lot — unless you’re Donald Trump

“To hear Donald Trump tell it, “millions of people” are waiting for him to make an endorsement in the Republican presidential primary. And at some point, he says, he’ll likely grace a candidate with one — that is, unless he decides to run himself as an independent.” - Washington Post
 
Our social problems are causing our economic problems. Few people want to admit it, and seemingly fewer candidates are articulating it passionately, for the sake of love, for the sake of the greater good.
 
_Abyssinia said:
Du Pont also lists the six things that most unite the GOP candidates:
  1. Less government spending
  2. Lower taxes on businesses and individuals
  3. Repeal of ObamaCare and Medicare reform
  4. Opening up energy production to the vast U.S. resources
  5. Free-er trade
  6. And finally, getting the government out of the business of picking winners and losers
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Ironically, ROn Paul has had the most consistent message on these 6 areas for 30 years, yet HE is the crazy old uncle at the family reunion. The flip-floppers and big government Republicans are portrayed as the heroes of the party. Go figure. 🤷
 
Scott_Lafrance said:
Ironically, ROn Paul has had the most consistent message on these 6 areas for 30 years, yet HE is the crazy old uncle at the family reunion. The flip-floppers and big government Republicans are portrayed as the heroes of the party. Go figure. 🤷
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Its not his consistency on these issues that get him the “crazy uncle” label, and you know it.
 
Scott_Lafrance said:
Ironically, ROn Paul has had the most consistent message on these 6 areas for 30 years, yet HE is the crazy old uncle at the family reunion. The flip-floppers and big government Republicans are portrayed as the heroes of the party. Go figure. 🤷
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The only way Paul could get elected is if 51% of the country were to suddenly realize that basic human nature says that humans will do what feels good and avoid acts that make people feel badly. People keep foolishly hoping and dreaming that We The People are somehow capable of raising OTHER people’s taxes to make the problems go away. The media keeps fostering the foolish dream, and too many people are too narrow minded to “ask questions, challenge the authority” of liberals who have only grown the problems of poverty and social ills by bailing out the less responsible behavior. This is simply unsustainable for a democracy long term.
 
Scott_Lafrance said:
Ironically, ROn Paul has had the most consistent message on these 6 areas for 30 years, yet HE is the crazy old uncle at the family reunion. The flip-floppers and big government Republicans are portrayed as the heroes of the party. Go figure. 🤷
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How is he consistent on homosexual issues? He was against DADT, says marriage is between one man and one women except for when states decide they want ‘gay marriage’ and then he’s ok with that? How is that consistent?
 
scipio337 said:
Its not his consistency on these issues that get him the “crazy uncle” label, and you know it.
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Someone needs to 'splain to me how Paul can disavow the anti Semitic tracts in the newsletters sent out in his name with his picture and his signature by saying he was a busy physician and wasn’t aware of them.

A man who doesn’t even know what kind of material appears in his newsletters is capable of running the United States of America? Great executive skills apparently!

I am also astonished that Paul with his belief in legalizing prostitution, drugs, porn and staying out of “the right to choose” is appealing to any Catholics. There is more to life than wanting to audit the Fed and smoke dope.

Lisa
 
LisaA said:
Someone needs to 'splain to me how Paul can disavow the anti Semitic tracts in the newsletters sent out in his name with his picture and his signature by saying he was a busy physician and wasn’t aware of them.

A man who doesn’t even know what kind of material appears in his newsletters is capable of running the United States of America? Great executive skills apparently!

I am also astonished that Paul with his belief in legalizing prostitution, drugs, porn and staying out of “the right to choose” is appealing to any Catholics. There is more to life than wanting to audit the Fed and smoke dope.

Lisa
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We got a whole congress full of people that spend billions of your money writing bills and not knowing what’s in them.
 
I am also astonished that Paul with his belief in legalizing prostitution, drugs, porn and staying out of “the right to choose” is appealing to any Catholics. There is more to life than wanting to audit the Fed and smoke dope.
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I’m a conservative Catholic, even rather sympathetic to the Traditionalists, yet I’m also a Ron Paul supporter. I can see why you’re concerned but on closer inspection, I think Ron Paul is actually a good choice for Catholic social issues.

Let’s look at an issue like drugs, now if you’re concerned about drugs you’re obviously concerned about the health of people, given that I think you should also be concerned about the violence of the drug wars here and in our southern neighbor. I’m the son of Mexican immigrants, and so this issue is closer to me than to others, but it’s a legitimate American issue. The violence has been absolutely dreadful and I say it’s time we drain the drug cartel’s powers. The war against drugs has unfortunately failed, given the other two options the least worse one is definitely the legalization of drugs. I want an end to the violence.

Now let’s also look at abortion. It’s good to know that Ron Paul is pro-life and would ban it nationally if he could. Sadly that hasn’t worked out, but even if he did I’m not sure it would last very long. Now then he also supports leaving it up to the states. If this happens, abortion would become even more illegal than it is right now. An option which realistically would save more lives in the long term. It would buy us more time to convince people of the pro life argument and save more lives. We could continue the fight at the state level.

I’ll even address marriage while I’m at this. Now with Ron Paul it would be left up to the states as it is right now, so not much change there. It’s worth pointing out however that Ron Paul personally wants to get the government out of marriage period. Realistically if this catches on it would result in something like states only recognizing civil unions for everyone. I see no problem with that, giving the government the power to vindicate marriage allows politicians to desecrate it. If the government gets out of it the Sacrament shall remain safe within our churches. It’s like abortion, we have to recognize the world we live in and work on pragmatic solutions. Getting gay marriage banned at the national level would be ideal, but given the political climate I think trying to get the government out of marriage is the better option.

In my opinion, the benefits of Ron Paul’s social stances outweigh the negatives such as allowing for the legalization of prostitution, though I think he wants to leave it up to the states. I still think a lot of states would make it illegal. I just don’t think it’s incompatible to be a devout Catholic and vote for Ron Paul.
 
Ron Paul has a 56% chance of winning Iowa - Nate Silver

Romney and Santorum surge as Iowa caucuses near - Washington Post

“At the start of the month, Rick Santorum needed the following things to happen in order for him to be competitive in Iowa: Newt Gingrich needed to fade. Evangelicals needed to move toward his campaign. Then voters needed to see some tangible sign of momentum, in order to speed up the tortoise-like pace of his Iowa campaign. The former Pennsylvania senator has now gotten at least a dose of all three ingredients.” - Politico

““All of a sudden, Rick Santorum looks an awful lot like Mike Huckabee,” said Craig Robinson, a former state GOP official who now runs TheIowaRepublican.com, a political website.” - Quoted by the WSJ

“Santorum can put himself in position to be the Mike Huckabee of 2012, giving social conservatives and Tea Partiers a more responsible protest vote against the inevitability of Romney than Paul would provide.” - Commentary

A case for Rick Santorum is republished at NRO

Byron Yorke explains why Santorum’s support may grow over coming days - Washington Examiner

VIDEO: Rick Santorum campaign video touts support of Palin, Beck and Huckabee

Rick Santorum says he’d cast vote for Ron Paul after taking ‘a lot of antacid’ - The Hill

The GOP’s TOP priority is STOP PAUL - TIME

Jon Huntsman says Ron Paul is ‘unelectable’ - LA Times

There is a Ron Paul vote which has little to do with Ron Paul and Romney needs to address their concerns about the size of government - Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal

A penchant for conspriacy theories has been the constant theme of Ron Paul’s time in politics - James Kirchick in the New York Times

Two very different women endorse Romney…

Ann Coulter: Only Romney is right on the two big issues: Repealing ObamaCare and Stopping Illegal Immigration - TownHall | PowerLine

Elizabeth Dole endorses Mitt Romney - USA Today

“The key to wrapping up a nomination quickly has always been an Iowa-New Hampshire one-two punch, and the Granite State, which votes Jan. 10, seems to be a Romney fortress” - E J Dionne in the Washington Post

Gingrich uses Bolton, Forbes and Reagan to bolster ebbing campaign

Newt Gingrich says, he’d look to people like John Bolton and Steve Forbes to fill his cabinet - firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/28/9782745-gingrich-campaign-says-it-raised-about-9m-in-fourth-quarterwire/2011/12/28/secretary-of-state-john-bolton-treasurer-steve-forbes/"]WSJ

“Tax reforms to maximize economic growth, a sound dollar, and smarter regulations will touch off another historic boom” - New Gingrich urges Republicans to follow Reagan in this Wall Street Journal OpEd

On Trail, Gingrich strains to show Nice-Guy side - New York Times

Gingrich campaign says it raised about $9M in fourth quarter - MSNBC

Gingrich wins Art Laffer’s backing - NRO
 
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