European elections 2019: LIVE results

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Thread for discussing results, counts and exit poll projections as they come in:

Voting for the next European Parliament concludes: Official results will be announced later in the evening on Sunday after polling stations across the EU close. Officials from several countries have reported that voter turnout has been higher than the last election in 2014.

The biggest multi-country election in the world: It comes after four days of voting, where over 350 million people from 28 countries are eligible to vote.

Some context: The election has been described as a pivotal moment for the EU as it confronts the threat of nationalists and populists across the continent, and as the drawn-out Brexit process continues to dominate the political agenda.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1132701456618917889
 
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OK, so here are a few things we know already:

Voter turnout appears to be up in most countries, in a number of cases (such as Germany, France and Poland) significantly so but also in the UK:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132679348601917440

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132702239154425862

Some trends emerging:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132698444240424961

The #GreenWave has been particularly noticeable, so far, in Germany and Ireland:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132704293033861120

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132691715486363648

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In the Netherlands, some sobering news for the far-right, Eurosceptic populists:


21 min ago

Populists fare badly in the Netherlands​

As previously projected, Dutch Labor Party PvDa of European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans is coming first in the Netherlands at 18.10%. That’s double the amount of votes it received in the 2014 EU election.

It’s a surprise victory for Timmermans, whose Euroskeptic challenger Thierry Baudet – who has been described as the “suave new face of Dutch right-wing populism” – had been topping the polls in this year’s election.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) has received 15%, the centrist Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) received 12.30% and Baudet’s far-right Forum for Democracy (FvD) is fourth at 11%.

Voter turnout was also higher this year in the Netherlands, according to statistics published by the European Parliament.
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350 million eligible voters is amazing! I guess the only bigger democratic election process would be India’s federal Congress?
 
Yup, EU Parliament elections are second largest democratic exercise in the world after India (which has over a billion citizens, versus the European Union’s 500 million + citizens).
 
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More updates:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132706675381723139

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132706394304589824

As already stated, turning into a very good night for Europe’s Greens. From CNN’s live blog:

6 min ago

Ireland’s Green Party to take its first seats in EU parliament in 20 years​

Ireland’s Green Party has also made big gains this year, according to estimates provided by the EU. They party is set to take the first seats it’s held in the EU parliament in 20 years.

Meanwhile, Taoisearch Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael Party (FG) is leading estimates with 29% of votes – which is double the amount of support that any other party has received.

Ireland will be allocated a total of 11 seats in parliament, however once the UK leaves the EU it will increase to 13.
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https://whatukthinks.org/eu/two-ver...-final-polls-of-euro-election-vote-intention/
A plethora of polls published in the last hours of the campaign have affirmed the likely outcome of one of the key political battles in the Euro-election – but have left us rather uncertain about the outcome of another. That said, it is clear that Sunday is set to be an uncomfortable night for both the Conservatives and Labour, and will likely raise important questions about the future of Britain’s traditional two-party system.

The battle whose outcome is clear is that between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party for the support of those who voted Leave. That is a contest that Nigel Farage is set to win hands down. Where the message of the polls is much less certain is in the fight between Labour and the Liberal Democrats for the support of Remain voters.
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This by Professor John Curtice is a good read of what the results may show for the UK results.
 
Lib Dems have strong support in Southwark which contains much of the Westminster seat held not so long ago by Lib Dems for 25 years (Simon Hughes’ seat).
 
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The #GreenWave continues apace:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132731512791732228

This is turning into the major leitmotif of this 2019 European election, by the looks of things.

It’s a good night for the environment.

Also, seems that the ALDE (Liberals) could be the kingmakers in this European election, with over 100 seats, meaning that they will hold the balance of power as coalition partners vis-a-vis the two largest blocs the centre-right EPP (Christian Democrars) and the centre-left S&D (Social Democrats):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132726776474546176

If the Lib Dems do well here in the UK, as predictions hold, they could be very influential in this bloc in the European Parliament because it would make them one of the largest ‘seat-holders’ within the wider transnational party.
 
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Bloomberg is calling it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ream-holds-as-populists-fail-to-break-through

EU Populists Fall Short as Voters Swing Behind Greens, Liberals​

Mainstream European Union parties are holding their ground against the assault from populists in elections for the bloc’s Parliament, according to the first set of exit polls.

With voting still going on in some countries, the parties who rally against foreigners, want to rein in the EU and despise the cozy relationship between centrist groups, aren’t performing as well as some establishment politicians feared.

Instead, it’s the Liberals and the Greens set to post the biggest gains in the first EU-wide test of public opinion in five years. Turnout looks set to be the highest for two decades as voters respond to the populist threat.

According to the first official EU projection based on the exit polls, the two big alliances will make up 43% of the seats, down from 56% in 2014. Populist parties look set to win 29% of the Europe-wide vote, slightly down from 30% in the current Parliament, according to official EU projections. The pro-business Liberals and the Greens look like the big winners with 14% and 9% respectively.

That would mean that the EU is likely to broadly continue current policies: distancing itself from U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade strategy, gradually integrating the euro area, seeking a way to share the burden of non-EU migrants and holding firm against any U.K. attempt to reopen the Brexit deal.

Across Europe, it’s a similar picture of euroskeptic parties failing to make breakthroughs:

*In Denmark, exit polls show the nationalist Danish People’s Party will get less than 12% of the vote, after getting 21% in the last national election
*In Slovakia, the far-right party is set to finish third
*In Finland, with 21% of the vote counted, the far-right Finns party is getting 13% – more or less in line with its 2014 showing
*In Greece, the opposition center-right New Democracy is on course to beat Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s Syriza

Turnout across the 28 countries is the highest in 20 years, according to official EU estimates, and has risen for the first time ever.

Results from the U.K. are due to be published from 10 p.m. local time. The U.K. was obliged to participate in the election because it didn’t leave the EU on March 29 as scheduled.
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I should note that the SNP (Scottish National Party) belong to the same EU parliamentary bloc as the Greens - known as the Greens-European Free Alliance.

As such, if the SNP do well in Scotland that also = Greens at European level.

See:
 
  • In Denmark, exit polls show the nationalist Danish People’s Party will get less than 12% of the vote, after getting 21% in the last national election
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That collapse was likely due to the Social Democrats vowing to crackdown in illegal immigration and restrict immigration.

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Out of the liberal policy morass? How Denmark’s Social Democrats might reshape the country’s approach to immigration

Ahead of Denmark’s next general election, which must be held by June this year, the country’s Social Democrats have outlined a new and more restrictive approach to immigration. Peter Nedergaard wri…
blogs.lse.ac.uk blogs.lse.ac.uk

www.theguardian.com

Mette Frederiksen: the anti-immigration left leader set to win power in Denmark

Social Democrats are election frontrunners but critics say their leader has dragged the party sharply to the right
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
  • In Finland, with 21% of the vote counted, the far-right Finns party is getting 13% – more or less in line with its 2014 showing
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Peak populist. No real gains in France, Austria or Hungary (they’re the majority but unable to grow anymore) and very small gains in Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands. Gains only in Belgium and likely the UK.
 
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ATraveller said:
Gains only in Belgium and likely the UK.
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Yup and UK is a real outlier given that we are “supposed” to be leaving the EU and one would expect Farage to top the polls here, given the failure to deliver Brexit.

I’m hearing soundings though that Farage’s margin of victory may have been vastly overstated by the polls. We need to see if he beats his 2014 UKIP score - that will be the real test.

Latest:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132736290544390145

The latest French seat projection:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132744127156764672

Marine le Pen and Macron literally neck-and-neck.

This is good for Macron and bad for Le Pen, given that sitting President Francois Hollande in 2014 only got 14% of the vote behind Le Pen getting 22% (as predicted here as well).

No movement upwards or downwards for Le Pen then. Peak populism as you say. A clear sense.

On British Labour, more news:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1132744561401434112
 
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It’s time for a change. Completely pointless in the age of the Internet.
Why isn’t the BBC carrying exit polls?
A reminder that the BBC is following UK law on reporting any exit polls or projections that might exist out there.

Under UK law, there are restrictions about what broadcasters can say while polls are open.
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Official results via the BBC: https://election-results.eu/
 
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