Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19

[F_Marturana]

My sister’s company is located in another city from where she lives. They cut costs by having her city employees work from home.

How much office space will be empty?

I don’t see a light at the end of any tunnel.

I’m remembering vaguely Enron and how the falling of that one business caused a large dip in the economy.

Yesterday’s junk mail had a brochure for a cruise. Are cruise companies going to be able to stay in business? Airlines? Hotels?

I know of a pediatric specialist office who just laid off all nurses. the doctors are only able to see children for emergency surgeries.

 

[Tis_Bearself]

Also, what impact does telework have on the real estate market (primarily commercial)? I don’t need brick and mortar office space if I assign all my employees to use their homes. The cost of commercially leased space is enormous, and if that cost can be jettisoned, it will.

I’ve always thought that a whole lot of sitting in offices and commuting is largely unnecessary. Many workplaces I’m aware of have been on a quest to encourage more telework and less office space for years. Unfortunately you still run into bosses who get uncomfortable when they cannot physically see an employee on a regular basis. I think they need to get over that.

 

[Dr_Meinheimer]

For the industries that can, sure. I don’t believe this is even close to a majority, however. And let’s say it is 50%, for argument’s sake? The impact to the commercial real estate market will be enormous which has far reaching effects in our economy. The poster before you cited the Enron impact. There is solution that will assuage the pain most people are going to feel for a long time. Economics is always a give and take, akin to the conservation of mass and energy principles.

Not saying society can’t shift to telework in businesses where it makes sense over time. But the changes and impact while that shift occurs will be over years, and will be very painful for very many. Again, if we shouldn’t downplay the medical seriousness of this pandemic, we should also not be quick to downplay the economic seriousness of it either. I think if anyone believes once everyone goes back to work it is business as usual is kidding themselves. Records bailouts too will come at a steep price not yet felt, and it is always most keenly felt by those on the bottom of the economic pyramid.

I am also not saying we have a ton of good options - once in a lifetime events rarely do, but let’s not act as though the worst will be behind us when we resume work; let’s prepare for tough times with eyes wide open.

 

[ThinkingSapien]

I’ve always thought that a whole lot of sitting in offices and commuting is largely unnecessary. Many workplaces I’m aware of have been on a quest to encourage more telework and less office space for years.

There is plenty of waste involved.

Wasted Money
I had some coworkers that instead of paying the $114/month to park in the deck adjacent to the building would instead would instead park at some lots that were further away for a few dollars per day. But one day all of lots further out closed on the same day. The same day the remaining monthly parking subscriptions for the building sold out. The building still had daily parking, but for their rates it added up to $75/week. Because of increased demand for parking the monthly and daily rates both went up.

Wasted Time
We eventually moved to a building on the ritzy side of town having space in the same building as a Ritz Carlton. Traffic up there was awful. While it took me 45 minutes~ 1 hours to drive the 20 miles to work it took 90~120 minutes to drive to the new location which was 27 miles away. I tried taking the public trains, but found that to be an awful experience that risked exposure the effluvia of others.

The company most recently moved to a re-purposed warehouse; something that has been a trend during the city growth and gentrification. Old buildings are getting new business that are keeping the old aesthetic (ex: there is an apartment called “The Matress Factory”). They also started to let people work from home. Though the department I’m in doesn’t allow it (We are the only department that took this stance). Despite getting carpet and modern office trimmings I personally think it is a pretty bad layout. Ex: if someone is having a meeting in a certain space then access to the men’s restroom is blocked and someone has to go two one or two other buildings to find a vacant restroom. But on the flip side most people work from home and this office is just an available common meeting space.

If my department survives I wonder if they will conform with the rest of the company after this is over.

 

[dvdjs]

Here is a good interview with Dr. Brilliant, an epidemiologist very experienced and knowledgeable about pandemics.

Some key points:
As a novel virus, there is no present immunity. In principle, everyone on earth is subject to infection.
Herd immunity occurs with 70-80% of the population recovered or vaccinated.
While the Chinese model of quenching the spread of disease is probably untenable in the US, the South Korean model, which features massive testing is; we are still way behind on testing.

Also:

If you’re not worried, you’re not paying attention. But I’m not scared. I firmly believe that the steps that we’re taking will extend the time that it takes for the virus to make the rounds. I think that, in turn, will increase the likelihood that we will have a vaccine or we will have a prophylactic antiviral in time to cut off, reduce, or truncate the spread. …

… I’m a scientist, but I’m also a person of faith. And I can’t ever look at something without asking the question of isn’t there a higher power that in some way will help us to be the best version of ourselves that we could be? I thought we would see the equivalent of empty streets in the civic arena, but the amount of civic engagement is greater than I’ve ever seen. But I’m seeing young kids, millennials, who are volunteering to go take groceries to people who are homebound, elderly. I’m seeing an incredible influx of nurses, heroic nurses, who are coming and working many more hours than they worked before, doctors who fearlessly go into the hospital to work. I’ve never seen the kind of volunteerism I’m seeing.

I don’t want to pretend that this is an exercise worth going through in order to get to that state. This is a really unprecedented and difficult time that will test us. When we do get through it, maybe like the Second World War, it will cause us to reexamine what has caused the fractional division we have in this country. The virus is an equal opportunity infector. And it’s probably the way we would be better if we saw ourselves that way, which is much more alike than different.

 

[Peeps]

I suspect most employers would offer less to the person who gets to work from home than the person who has to leave his house and go to an office, and why wouldn’t he? It is a perk most folks would want.

My husband has worked from home (computer stuff) for over ten years.

The salaries are not adjusted to give less to those employees who work from home. Companies are paying for the work, and if an company allows/encourages employees to work from home, it doesn’t matter if an employee works from home or in an office.

If anything, companies would be likely to pay an employee who works from home MORE than the employee who works in the office. The at-home employee is using his own office, supplies, computer, clean-up crew, water, bathroom, heat and AC, etc.–the company has to supply this to anyone who is working in their office. So the at-home employee is saving the company a lot of expense.

Also, there are many people who do NOT want that “perk.” My husband enjoyed it for a while (wearing his jammies all day instead of dressing in white shirt and tie). But it is very lonely–he misses the camaraderie of the office, plus all the lunches out (or sitting with other employees), getting in on office sport pools, discussing the trends in the company, etc.

Plus, his home office takes up one of our three bedrooms (kids grown up), and we have not had success making it double as a guest room–all my husband’s computers, printers, manuals, files, etc take up so much room there isn’t any space to put a bed and dresser. Even the closet is full of work-related stuff. And it irritates me that my husband often brings a lot of his work to the dining room table because it’s sunny and he can look out at the street and see people driving and walking by (we live on a busy street in the middle of our city). I like a clean dining room table that is always ready for a meal and has placemats, flowers, etc.–oh, well, I also like that my husband currently has a good job.

Finally, because he works from home, his parents and siblings assume that he is always available to run out (a ten mile drive into the country) to bring his parents a lunch, change a light bulb, chat about their dog, bring their dog to the vet, take his mom to the Alzheimer’s doctor (this takes hours, by the way), take his dad out to buy new shoes, etc. When he says he is working, they are shocked–“I thought you worked from home! Can’t you do your work in the evening?” “NO–I have conference calls, deadlines, meetings, emails due, etc.!” “Oh…well, I’m so sorry to bother you. We don’t want to be a nuisance. But I thought you would be interested in our dog…” “Dad, I’m working! Please let me get back to work!”

It’s not really a perk for everyone. He has considered spending the money on one of those “Rent an Office” offices. But seems an extravagence.

 

[ThinkingSapien]

And you are correct - one lesson everyone learned is the need for savings. Businesses need 6 months of payroll in reserve, and individuals need the same for their personal budget.

Every year the company I work for does layoffs in the March or Feb time frame (though they also hire some times afterwards) . Call me paranoid, but since a department merger a few years ago I’ve expected myself to be laid off at this time frame. Right after a merger of departments there was a layoff that only affected the people that came from my old department. My car is going to be 11 years old this year. I wanted to have 6 months of income saved and an additional amount so that I could purchase a car with cash. I wanted to keep enough cash accessible in case I had to replace my car and found myself without a job.

Having a totally different attitude are two relatives that have been immediately effected by this shutdown. One was a contract worker (no unemployment benefits, her contracts were immediately suspended two weeks ago) and the other was an airline worker. So far I’ve seen that they have not adjusted their life styles to endure a long term shutdown. One went to a grocery store to purchase eggs and got the no cage, free roaming eggs in the biodegradable container (They cost 3x the price of regular eggs). Something I can’t understand since she now has no income (there were many other items like this, I just chose the eggs to talk about). She also packed her car the other day with recyclables to take to the county recycling center. As that is not an essential service the center is closed. I suggested she just throw it away for now; if you are just trying to survive the next unspecified number of months it is reasonable to suspend recycling concerns. I tried discouraging her from going out the other day when she decided to visit a friend to help write her autobiography. She thinks I am blowing this out of proportion. Perhaps her tune will change with her money runs out.

Another more responsible relative and myself have been conversing about how to react when this does happen and our two less responsible relatives eventually come to us for help. Our perspective is that before you can save someone else you have to save yourself. Also we see they are not taking necessary action to save themselves. It’s not going to be pretty.

 

[Tis_Bearself]

People who have just, like in the last couple of days, suffered a job loss and a virus crisis are probably not going to immediately change their whole lifestyle just because someone else thinks they should. I also can’t see why you expect everybody to throw out recyclables just because they lost a job - if one feels a responsibility to the planet, that doesn’t stop and you don’t start throwing all your stuff in the garbage just because you had a job loss.

Setting that aside, people try to carry on like everything is okay when they are suffering a crisis. Instead of giving them dire predictions about how they’ll soon be broke, were you empathetic or supportive at all? Did you offer to help at all? If I had just lost a job, I would not be too happy with a relative who sat around saying, “Well, you’ll soon be broke so you better buy all the cheapest things at the store!”

 

[Cathoholic]

Theo520 (on the “Evidence over Hysteria” article). . .

But it has been pulled . .

Wow!

It was very good! I don’t understand that.

@Theo520 knows these things and many of you do too, but for all others just think about it.

There are just some things Government is powerless to CONTROL.

And when we get glimpses of that some turn to prayer, others to MORE prayer, but ironically enough some cry out for MORE Government answering Government hysteria with their own hysteria.

Don’t get me wrong.

There is REAL CONCERN here.

But sooner or later the hysteria is going to “tank the economy”.

Objection: $1200.00 checks a month will get us through!

Answer: Well think about it. The trucker who is bringing bread from Topeka KS to Chicago, Illinois, has had his truck stops closed down. He has no amenities available on the road. He’s got checks coming in at home no matter what he does or does not do.

He thinks: "Why the hades should I risk getting this being ‘out and about’, bring this home to my wife and kids, risk giving it to my elderly mom who lives back in Topeka that I have to go over there and get her set up three times a week, etc. . . .

. . . When I can just sit at home and get “checks” from the Government? Why subject myself to this?"

If ENOUGH guys start thinking like that, there won’t be any “bread” in Chicago.

Then what?

You know “then what”.

And after awhile the risk-benefit ratio has been far surpassed.

Government CREATED more problems than it had.

Many people’s response at that time?

MORE GOVERNMENT!

Bigger “checks”, more rules and regs, less freedom, plant seeds gone the way of toilet paper, etc, etc.

And after all this damage is done by Government, then what?

I will tell you what.

There still will be Corona Virus hanging around and spreading.

That’s why it’s important to p(name removed by moderator)oint the cause (so it doesn’t occur again).

China? Not to blame Chinese or “Hey. We can be racist!”

Almost all those “racist” charges by media and pols are a phony smokescreen meant
to USE a crisis for PERSONAL POWER gains. For all practical purposes there is no racism on display here.

So we can sit down with China and have a REAL TALK.

If this was a bioweapons mistake, maybe the world Governments ought to try to come up with a paradigm that NOBODY does bioweaponry.

Or . . .

If this just coincidentally-happened to be a random mutation, just also coincidentally in the same Chinese town, that they have their only high-level micro lab, then look at exotic meat markets with all these exotic meats sitting out and about. Ask ourselves if there was any way we can create an environment where this is much less likely to occur from flies, etc, acting as vectors (refrigeration of these meats?).

Running around with our hair on fire can cause more harm than good.

Yes this is real now.
Yes there are sick people to be taken care of (that incidentally will have virtually NO CARE if the whole economy tanks).
Use common sense to be sure (handwashing, appropriate social distances given the situations, home if you are ill, etc.).

But we also have to admit there are some things, we CANNOT CONTROL.

 

[ThinkingSapien]

why you expect everybody

Not everybody. This person in particular is low on space because of recyclables that have been accumulating and is trying to persuade me to participate. If she lived in place that had full support for recycling that’s fine, but at the point where she no longer has an income and must expend resources to transport recyclables to a facility I see it as interfering with her ability to survive with the money she has left.

were you empathetic or supportive at all? Did you offer to help at all?

I’m afraid my willingness to be supportive for the two people in question has been exhausted. I’ve stepped in before, including but not limited to paying rent for a month.

The “dire predictions” were previously warnings that the person should be more prepared for unstable times for well over a year, noted observations that relatively mild emergencies cause significant problems, request for the person to consider their future, and strong encouragement to accept offers for positions that were offering benefits such as health insurance, retirement benefits, and steady employment.

Well before the crisis hit there were troubled times for which I had assisted, but I feel that assistance was wasted. As soon as the troubled times were over the people in question continued with their previous behaviour and have not been responsive to suggestions to prepare for the next troubled time. I think that willingness to provide assistance has continued to the problem in that the people may feel that their emergency response plan is to rely on someone else that prepares for emergencies. I don’t think the tendency to not prepare for bad times will change for these people unless they are allowed to fail on their own.

 

[ThinkingSapien]

If I had just lost a job, I would not be too happy with a relative who sat around saying, “Well, you’ll soon be broke so you better buy all the cheapest things at the store!”

When I’ve lost a job, I’ve said something similar to myself.

I see happiness as being secondary to survival. I think it is important to prepare for bad situations and be willing to adapt in changing, challenging circumstances. I don’t know anything on your background, so I can’t speak about you at all. But having known these people for a significant amount of time, having provided assistance before, and now that I have a better awareness of their behaviours I stand by the criticisms.

I didn’t say much about the other person. He’ll be 41 years old before the year is over. He moved in with a relative a few months ago but now she was preparing to evict him before the Covid crisis hit because his not respective of her property and has refused to pay her any rent. In the mean time he has been spending lots of money on his friends and even paid for a trip for one of them to go to Puerto Rico during the time he has been refusing to pay rent. This crisis actually temporarily saved him from eviction. But as things lighten up he’s going to be out. Perhaps he can get by a little longer if he sells his 5 series BMW and makes some other changes to lower his expense level to something more sustainable in bad times.

Both of these people are about 40 with no retirement savings or other significant savings.

 

[Cathoholic]

Dr_Meinheimer . . .

Again, I find it odd we are told to take the medical aspects of this deathly seriously, but don’t do the same for the financial impacts which will be with us long after any quarantine is over.

Excellent insights Dr_Meinheimer.

 

[Tis_Bearself]

Well, if it were me, and I saw a relative with recyclables cluttering their house but they were willing to take them to the recycling center and just couldn’t get them there, I’d offer to help them declutter by taking them there . I know you can’t do it right now because the place is not open, but I would see helping with that as both being a kind gesture and being in line with the Catholic Church principles on good stewardship for the earth.

 

[dvdjs]

Again, I find it odd we are told to take the medical aspects of this deathly seriously, but don’t do the same for the financial impacts which will be with us long after any quarantine is over.

What makes you think that the financial impacts are not being taken seriously?

 

[DENNYINMI]

Industries don’t get loans, people do.

Right there, full stop on very first sentence. With rock bottom>0% interest rates AND the knowledge that their industry will be up and running soon, (example: airlines) because at some point there will be an end in sight, these “industries” can manage far better than the people that work for them.
I’m sick of the too big to fail companies all the while expecting persons who were working and are now off to the sidelines during a crisis, living paycheck to paycheck actually pulling themselves up by their bootstraps until the boots were taken away to scrap…IF the idea is the middle class on down, the republicans are doing the right thing, but after trillions of tax cuts do you think for a minute they (industries and fat cat corporations) should be a priority concern??? Never mind. Of course you do.

 

[Cathoholic]

DENNYINMI . . . .

IF the idea is the middle class on down, the republicans are doing the right thing, but after trillions of tax cuts do you think for a minute they (industries and fat cat corporations) should be a priority concern???

I can’t speak for anyone else, but this is part of the reason I want to see huge businesses (virtually all of them) subject to anti-trust laws and broken down into many smaller businesses.

 

[DENNYINMI]

You may have a good point!~Concentrated wealth and monopolies are destroying livelihoods, small business especially, and has been for quite some time.

 

[JoeFreedom]

I work both (home and office) and while I cannot possibly quantify the cost of doing business over the phone vs face to face the difference is huge. I’ve been doing it for over a decade and the costs one loses from doing business without seeing each other is much greater than people think.

 

[Dr_Meinheimer]

Thanks for telling me what I think.

Trust me my angry friend, I loathe corporate bailouts as much as anyone. I hated them under Bush, Obama, and hate them now. My point is an industry can’t log into a website and doesn’t have a SS# or FEIN. People and corporations do.

 

[Maximus1]

You are absolutely right. The damage being done to the economy is like nothing we have seen since the depression.