In June Medical Services it was argued that the Louisiana law imposed an undue burden and thus violated (among others) Casey. Neither side ever argued that Casey was wrongly decided. What you are saying is that a justice could decide to override Casey without ever hearing arguments for or against it. I’m not a lawyer but that sounds irrational.
I agree it would be unlikely for the Court to overturn Roe or Casey without seeking briefing directly on that point, and the Court did not take briefing on that point in June Medical (although it may have been raised in an amicus, I have not read all the briefing). It also did not grant cert on that direct issue. However, doing so is not necessary to decide the case by overturning Roe and Casey. I do agree that they would be much more likely to let it be known that they consider a case a vehicle for possibly overturning if that was something they thought would be possible; the fact that they don’t simply reflects that there are nowhere near enough votes to do so.
The fact is that everyone understands that neither Roe or Casey are close to be overturned, so the litigants focus on the issues that will matter. But if you read June Medical, the entire case is based on Casey. The majority argues that Casey mandates invalidating the law at issue. The minority argues that Casey controls, but that it goes the other way. The whole case is about Casey, and only Thomas argues Casey is wrongly decided. That is the status of abortion jurisprudence - everyone knows that the issue is how to apply Casey; Casey itself is simply not in play.
Although the cases and opinions are (in my opinion) the best guide to where the Justices are on the topic, that is not the only source. Each of the last three “conservatives” confirmed to the Court have signaled in their confirmation that they will not overturn Roe. Trump said as much about Barrett in the debate. Could they change their minds - sure, anything is possible. But it is pretty clear where they are now.
Both parties like to claim that RvW is teetering on one vote. They do it for fund raising purposes and to whip up their respective bases. But it is simply not true.
All that said, maybe I am wrong. There will soon be a six to three conservative majority on the court, and the court could grant cert on an abortion case and overturn Roe next year. If it happens, it would mean you are correct. But when it doesn’t happen, expect the politicians to drum up funds by claiming it is still just one vote away.