First case of Ebola in the US

[RGCheek]

What you call flawed analysis, I call faith. “Take therefore no thought for the morrow: for the morrow shall take thought for the things of itself. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.” Matthew 6:34

That is called hyperbole, as no one today can really live like that.

Do you have a calendar? a scheduler? appointments for the doctor or dentist?

Static analysis is in no way recommended in scripture and it is an analytical flaw.

As of now, Ebola is not a threat. Every year 3000 - 15,000 people die in the US from influenza. From Ebola, the count is 0 - 1.

Again, Ebola’s exponential growth rate and 55% mortality rate means you don’t know what you are talking about when you say there is no need for concern.

 

[epan]

That is called hyperbole, as no one today can really live like that.

Do you have a calendar? a scheduler? appointments for the doctor or dentist?

Static analysis is in no way recommended in scripture and it is an analytical flaw.

Again, Ebola’s exponential growth rate and 55% mortality rate means you don’t know what you are talking about when you say there is no need for concern.

Maybe I can clear a few things up.

Here are some of the things we know about Ebola, and specifically about this strain of Ebola.

Ebola mutates slowly, as compared to influenza, or even worse HIV. Therefore, there is a lot of optimism that we will come up with effective treatments and vaccines.

The potential vaccine market is large enough that it makes monetary sense to the drug companies, who are hard at work right now.

WHO and MSF have been dealing with Ebola for about 20 years. There is sufficient expertise to deal with this outbreak. The problem has been the lack of resources, not a lack of expertise. US medical providers are being brought up to speed right now. As this happens, risk of an epidemic in the US is reduced.

There was one strain of Ebola which may have been airborne, but this strain appears not to be so. HOWEVER, it is highly contagious by contact with bodily fluids. Many common medical procedures, and many bodily functions cause the spray of such fluids. It is imperative that anyone in close contact, or treating an Ebola patient protect all skin areas, and protect eyes and airways.

I believe that Ebola will not become an epidemic in the US. It is gratifying to see that measures are being taken.

I have lost count some while ago, but in the past two months I have treated more than 300 Ebola patients. It is quite possible to treat this disease, and not become infected, if certain precautions are taken.

There is no need to panic.

 

[seekerz]

Maybe I can clear a few things up.

Here are some of the things we know about Ebola, and specifically about this strain of Ebola.

Ebola mutates slowly, as compared to influenza, or even worse HIV. Therefore, there is a lot of optimism that we will come up with effective treatments and vaccines.

The potential vaccine market is large enough that it makes monetary sense to the drug companies, who are hard at work right now.

WHO and MSF have been dealing with Ebola for about 20 years. There is sufficient expertise to deal with this outbreak. The problem has been the lack of resources, not a lack of expertise. US medical providers are being brought up to speed right now. As this happens, risk of an epidemic in the US is reduced.

There was one strain of Ebola which may have been airborne, but this strain appears not to be so. HOWEVER, it is highly contagious by contact with bodily fluids. Many common medical procedures, and many bodily functions cause the spray of such fluids. It is imperative that anyone in close contact, or treating an Ebola patient protect all skin areas, and protect eyes and airways.

I believe that Ebola will not become an epidemic in the US. It is gratifying to see that measures are being taken.

I have lost count some while ago, but in the past two months I have treated more than 300 Ebola patients. It is quite possible to treat this disease, and not become infected, if certain precautions are taken.

There is no need to panic.

I get the sense that you’re right, since patient zero here in the US did not pass on Ebola to the others in his residence.

God bless and protect you, and through you relieve the suffering of many.

 

[RGCheek]

Maybe I can clear a few things up.

Here are some of the things we know about Ebola, and specifically about this strain of Ebola.

Ebola mutates slowly, as compared to influenza, or even worse HIV. Therefore, there is a lot of optimism that we will come up with effective treatments and vaccines.

The potential vaccine market is large enough that it makes monetary sense to the drug companies, who are hard at work right now.

WHO and MSF have been dealing with Ebola for about 20 years. There is sufficient expertise to deal with this outbreak. The problem has been the lack of resources, not a lack of expertise. US medical providers are being brought up to speed right now. As this happens, risk of an epidemic in the US is reduced.

There was one strain of Ebola which may have been airborne, but this strain appears not to be so. HOWEVER, it is highly contagious by contact with bodily fluids. Many common medical procedures, and many bodily functions cause the spray of such fluids. It is imperative that anyone in close contact, or treating an Ebola patient protect all skin areas, and protect eyes and airways.

I believe that Ebola will not become an epidemic in the US. It is gratifying to see that measures are being taken.

I have lost count some while ago, but in the past two months I have treated more than 300 Ebola patients. It is quite possible to treat this disease, and not become infected, if certain precautions are taken.

There is no need to panic.

Thank you for that informative response.

While I accept that you are saying this in all honesty and with authority, there are still two areas that concern me:

1. Institutional incompetence like the hospital in Dallas or the feds refusal to shut direct travel to these countries and secure our ports and borders.
2. Black Swan events.

Thank you again for your time in responding.

 

[jen_fla]

Great article, but I don’t think that influenza is a real airborne disease.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Transmission

laurabeikman.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/cdc-admits-ebola-could-be-airborne/

patdollard.com/2014/10/exposed-top-ebola-scientists-say-cdc-clueless-about-how-disease-transmitted-this-strain-like-none-seen-before-may-well-be-airborne/

Everytime I read about the Spanish Flu, I read it is airborne. The CDC calls influenza airborne, but it is tricky because even though aerosolized is airborne to us, there are some minor distinctions. I found a great explanation a week ago and can’t seem to find it at the moment. Thanks for these links, I’m going to read them Friday and hopefully will get a better grasp on transmission differences of airborne, aerosolized droplets and fomites etc. In the meantime I did find this. I’ve seen the sneezing pic a hundred times and it still grosses me out to no end!

Experts think influenza may be spread to uninfected people in three ways: large-particle respiratory droplet transmission, airborne transmission, and contact (or fomite) transmission. Most experts think that influenza viruses are spread mainly by large-particle respiratory droplets produced when people infected with influenza cough, sneeze or talk. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled. Transmission via large-particle droplets requires close contact between source and recipient persons, because droplets do not remain suspended in the air and generally travel only a short distance (usually less than 2 meters) through the air. Airborne transmission (via small particles suspended in the air for extended periods of time) also is thought to be possible, although data are limited. Less often, a person might also become infected with influenza by touching a surface or object that has influenza virus on it and then touching his or her own mouth or nose.

blogs.cdc.gov/niosh-science-blog/2013/01/15/catchingtheflu/

 

[jen_fla]

Maybe I can clear a few things up.

Here are some of the things we know about Ebola, and specifically about this strain of Ebola.

Ebola mutates slowly, as compared to influenza, or even worse HIV. Therefore, there is a lot of optimism that we will come up with effective treatments and vaccines.

The potential vaccine market is large enough that it makes monetary sense to the drug companies, who are hard at work right now.

WHO and MSF have been dealing with Ebola for about 20 years. There is sufficient expertise to deal with this outbreak. The problem has been the lack of resources, not a lack of expertise. US medical providers are being brought up to speed right now. As this happens, risk of an epidemic in the US is reduced.

There was one strain of Ebola which may have been airborne, but this strain appears not to be so. HOWEVER, it is highly contagious by contact with bodily fluids. Many common medical procedures, and many bodily functions cause the spray of such fluids. It is imperative that anyone in close contact, or treating an Ebola patient protect all skin areas, and protect eyes and airways.

I believe that Ebola will not become an epidemic in the US. It is gratifying to see that measures are being taken.

I have lost count some while ago, but in the past two months I have treated more than 300 Ebola patients. It is quite possible to treat this disease, and not become infected, if certain precautions are taken.

There is no need to panic.

I admit I am feeling much better about transmission knowing that Duncan’s girlfriend did not become infected. I was completely amazed and to be honest, I still am.

May I ask if you have any information on Marburgh? A few weeks ago, I read about a man in Uganda dying from it with 8 being monitored.

newvision.co.ug/news/660469-eight-under-surveillance-over-marburg.html

God bless you for the incredible and unselfish work you do!

 

[TigerKitty]

epan -

Thank you for sharing your experience and insights…and my God bless you in your work. Please continue to share your experiences with us.

Also, jen fla - I, too, am amazed - and confused - at how individuals living in close contact with Duncan did NOT become infected. I can only guess that they were not exposed to his vomitus or that he did not “shed” virus in high loads at the time he was with them. I’m so thankful that the young men and young children are OK. Although I’m not sure how this could be, I find it to be encouraging and reassuring.

I did, however, read somewhere that the actual incubation period of ebola may be up to 42 days, but I cannot recall the source. HOWEVER, I feel most reassured by epan’s personal experiences in treating 300 or more ebola patients and still remaining uninfected.

 

[RGCheek]

Everytime I read about the Spanish Flu, I read it is airborne. The CDC calls influenza airborne, but it is tricky because even though aerosolized is airborne to us, there are some minor distinctions. I found a great explanation a week ago and can’t seem to find it at the moment. Thanks for these links, I’m going to read them Friday and hopefully will get a better grasp on transmission differences of airborne, aerosolized droplets and fomites etc. In the meantime I did find this. I’ve seen the sneezing pic a hundred times and it still grosses me out to no end!

I know, and I agree with your data points, but the technical definition of an airborne disease is one that puts out fine particles that are dry and can travel through the air in drafts and wind for miles.

What most people think of as airborne is technically ‘close contact’ which is within 3 feet or a sneeze and transfers drops of sometimes very small size.

This is why the CDC can technically deny that Ebola is an airborne disease, because by their terminology it isn’t, but then again neither is influence, but people in the public will still use the non-technical vernacular in regards to the flu and don’t realize it isn’t actually technically airborne.

 

[seekerz]

HOWEVER, I feel most reassured by epan’s personal experiences in treating 300 or more ebola patients and still remaining uninfected.

I’m pretty sure epan is properly donning and discarding personal protective equipment. Not sure that’s comparable to people sharing an apartment with no protective measures to speak of, but it is compatible with the transmission to only 2 nurses out of 70+ caregivers - and it also supports the initial contention that breaches in the standard safety protocols led to those 2 cases. (BTW, that does not mean the nurses themselves necessarily did anything wrong - they could have had substandard gear, for example, or could have lacked training in how to use the gear)

Based on these different scenarios, the lack of transmission to household members is most reassuring to me. And it supports what we’ve been told by the CDC about how the virus is transmitted.

 

[RGCheek]

I’m pretty sure epan is properly donning and discarding personal protective equipment. Not sure that’s comparable to people sharing an apartment with no protective measures to speak of, but it is compatible with the transmission to only 2 nurses out of 70+ caregivers - and it also supports the initial contention that breaches in the standard safety protocols led to those 2 cases. (BTW, that does not mean the nurses themselves necessarily did anything wrong - they could have had substandard gear, for example, or could have lacked training in how to use the gear)

Based on these different scenarios, the lack of transmission to household members is most reassuring to me. And it supports what we’ve been told by the CDC about how the virus is transmitted.

The likelihood of Ebola transmission is low initially but increases as the disease grows inside the infected person. So he got to accepted to a hospital early enough that none of those who have met him outside the hospital have not developed Ebola symptoms yet.

Hopefully it wont happen, but the issue is not over yet, despite the optimistic pronouncements of the CDC. IF a person has a low tolerance for disease due to below standard shelter, poor diet or being affected by other diseases that tax their immune systems is yet to be known. That homeless guy that disappeared after riding the same ambulance to the hospital that Duncan rode in is worrisome in my opinion, but again who knows? This is an odds-risk sort of situation that cannot be called closed for certain for a few months yet, as I understand it.

Here is a note on transmission of Ebola from an independent private researcher.

cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/09/commentary-health-workers-need-optimal-respiratory-protection-ebola

Most scientific and medical personnel, along with public health organizations, have been unequivocal in their statements that Ebola can be transmitted only by direct contact with virus-laden fluids2,3 and that the only modes of transmission we should be concerned with are those termed “droplet” and “contact.”

These statements are based on two lines of reasoning. The first is that no one located at a distance from an infected individual has contracted the disease, or the converse, every person infected has had (or must have had) “direct” contact with the body fluids of an infected person.

This reflects an incorrect and outmoded understanding of infectious aerosols, which has been institutionalized in policies, language, culture, and approaches to infection control. We will address this below. Briefly, however, the important points are that virus-laden bodily fluids may be aerosolized and inhaled while a person is in proximity to an infectious person and that a wide range of particle sizes can be inhaled and deposited throughout the respiratory tract.

The second line of reasoning is that respirators or other control measures for infectious aerosols cannot be recommended in developing countries because the resources, time, and/or understanding for such measures are lacking.4

Although there are some important barriers to the use of respirators, especially PAPRs, in developing countries, healthcare workers everywhere deserve and should be afforded the same best-practice types of protection, regardless of costs and resources. Every healthcare worker is a precious commodity whose well-being ensures everyone is protected.

 

[jen_fla]

epan -

Thank you for sharing your experience and insights…and my God bless you in your work. Please continue to share your experiences with us.

Also, jen fla - I, too, am amazed - and confused - at how individuals living in close contact with Duncan did NOT become infected. I can only guess that they were not exposed to his vomitus or that he did not “shed” virus in high loads at the time he was with them. I’m so thankful that the young men and young children are OK. Although I’m not sure how this could be, I find it to be encouraging and reassuring.

I did, however, read somewhere that the actual incubation period of ebola may be up to 42 days, but I cannot recall the source. HOWEVER, I feel most reassured by epan’s personal experiences in treating 300 or more ebola patients and still remaining uninfected.

Part I bolded: I think the 42 days is giving themselves insurance before making the claim “outbreak contained” when dealing with more than one case, although I did take this to mean that 5% show symptoms after 21 days.

Incubation period

The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease and is considered by WHO as sufficient to generate confidence in a declaration that an Ebola outbreak has ended.

Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval. WHO is therefore confident that detection of no new cases, with active surveillance in place, throughout this 42-day period means that an Ebola outbreak is indeed over.

who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/14-october-2014/en/

However, there are more and more articles coming in regarding unreported infections and deaths. As there are about 10,000 cases in W Africa, as I type this, the real number might be 30,000 with 15,000 dead.

GENEVA (Reuters) - At least 4,877 people have died in the world’s worst recorded outbreak of Ebola, and at least 9,936 cases of the disease had been recorded as of Oct. 19, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday,** but the true toll may be three times as much.**

The WHO has said real numbers of cases are believed to be much higher than reported: by a factor of 1.5 in Guinea, 2 in Sierra Leone and 2.5 in Liberia, while the death rate is thought to be about 70 percent of all cases. That would suggest a toll of almost 15,000.

uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0IB23220141022?irpc=932

Not encouraging to hear, so I will leave us with some positive news, in that Nurse Pham’s condition has been upgraded to “good” and her dog, Bentley has tested negative.

latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-ebola-dog-nina-pham-20141022-story.html

 

[Path_Finder]

Patient being tested for ebola in NYC:

msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-york-tests-doctor-who-was-in-west-africa-for-ebola/ar-BBaNooA?ocid=ansnewsreu11

 

[Path_Finder]

Dallas looks like it is basically out of the woods on this thing. I think they are at least close to it.

 

[Path_Finder]

NY patient has tested positive for ebola:

nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/craig-spencer-is-tested-for-ebola-virus-at-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html?_r=0

They do run a 2nd test, don’t they, anyway, I think this just broke on the news.

Prayers that this is contained.

Patient is a Doctor without Borders Doctor, worked in Africa…

 

[Beautiful]

NY patient has tested positive for ebola:

nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/craig-spencer-is-tested-for-ebola-virus-at-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html?_r=0

They do run a 2nd test, don’t they, anyway, I think this just broke on the news.

Prayers that this is contained.

Patient is a Doctor without Borders Doctor, worked in Africa…

Even as the authorities worked to confirm that Mr. Spencer was infected with Ebola, it emerged that he traveled from Manhattan to Brooklyn on the subway on Wednesday night, when he went to a bowling alley and then took a taxi home.

Praying for containment

 

[jen_fla]

NY patient has tested positive for ebola:

nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/craig-spencer-is-tested-for-ebola-virus-at-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html?_r=0

They do run a 2nd test, don’t they, anyway, I think this just broke on the news.

Prayers that this is contained.

Patient is a Doctor without Borders Doctor, worked in Africa…

So Wednesday he went bowling, and rode around on public transportation in one of the most densely populated cities. Early Thursday he has a fever of 103 and is vomiting.

As a doctor he should know better. I hope he beats the disease and I pray to God no one else becomes infected due to his carelessness. Why wasn’t his quarantine mandatory?

Yes, I am going to bring in the topic of ankle monitors again. If two doctors can’t muster up the discipline not to endanger their fellow citizens, then clearly more agressive monitoring must be taken.

 

[jen_fla]

I know, and I agree with your data points, but the technical definition of an airborne disease is one that puts out fine particles that are dry and can travel through the air in drafts and wind for miles.

What most people think of as airborne is technically ‘close contact’ which is within 3 feet or a sneeze and transfers drops of sometimes very small size.

This is why the CDC can technically deny that Ebola is an airborne disease, because by their terminology it isn’t, but then again neither is influence, but people in the public will still use the non-technical vernacular in regards to the flu and don’t realize it isn’t actually technically airborne.

I’m still not sure the spanish flu wasn’t technically airborne as well as aerosolized, but in everything else you said… well all I can say is, exactly! That is precisely what I was blathering on about many posts ago. I even accused the CDC of lying to us by omission.

We better hope the Spanish Flu met the scientific criteria of airborne, because it affected the entire world in a year. I don’t think aerosolized transmission could hit the globe that quickly. 675,000 Americans died in one year and that was with a 2.5% mortality rate.

 

[Path_Finder]

infowars.com/medical-professional-health-authorities-covering-up-ebola-cases-in-u-s/

Judge the story for one’s self, I am very skeptical of Info-Wars but it is interesting nonetheless.

 

[RGCheek]

I’m still not sure the spanish flu wasn’t technically airborne as well as aerosolized, but in everything else you said… well all I can say is, exactly! That is precisely what I was blathering on about many posts ago. I even accused the CDC of lying to us by omission.

We better hope the Spanish Flu met the scientific criteria of airborne, because it affected the entire world in a year. I don’t think aerosolized transmission could hit the globe that quickly. 675,000 Americans died in one year and that was with a 2.5% mortality rate.

Thanks for the compliment and I never stop blathering. That’s never really helped me much but its a by-product of my obsessiveness, another vice.

As to the flu being airborne, the problem is for me that various reports keep using the vernacular ‘airborne’ use that simply means it can pass through the air like with a sneeze, and the more technical definition which is that infections spreads lung to lung with dry particles capable of being suspended in the air over an indefinite period of time.

If Spanish Flu had the latter kind of contagiousness then it is the exception not the rule as I understand it. But then again I am not an authority at all, far from it. I am simply repeating what I have come to understand from reading dozens of articles, nothing more than that.

 

[seekerz]

infowars.com/medical-professional-health-authorities-covering-up-ebola-cases-in-u-s/

Judge the story for one’s self, I am very skeptical of Info-Wars but it is interesting nonetheless.

Judge for one’s self is sound advice, though I would go with my gut and just avoid the site to begin with. Typical “the government is a big bad enemy” stuff.

The article, in several ways, debunks itself:

a. by naming a doctor who repeats what some anonymous source told him; thereafter, it relies mostly on anonymous sources. So what was the point of naming that doctor to begin with, if all he has to contribute is hearsay and if the use of anonymous sources is fine with the article’s writer/s. The answer is, in my opinion, to render false credibility to the story.

b. by implying that the so called “disappeared patients” had Ebola. If you know anything about the disease, you will know that in its various stages it mimics several minor and major medical conditions. In other words, even if I believe that these people did disappear, they could have had anything. The conclusion that it was Ebola is unsubstantiated.

c. by raising the specter of martial law. One classic sign of a hoax is the spreading of fear, which itself may lead to mistrust, panic and/or anger.

People should consider refraining from communicating if they have nothing reasonable to contribute to this serious issue.