Here ya go:
Well I’ll be dipped in snuff – that’s what I’ve been saying!!
So tell me, how long do I believe “my” coal supply will last? Give me a quote, not just a nasty insinuation.
Another excuse.
You’re full of excusses. I already told you that Ed only looks at current fuel numbers. He’s not a geologist or petroleum engineer or an oil analyst. OPEC nations inflated their reserves in the 1980’s.
That’s a fact. But were they justified in doing so? OPEC national reserves are considerd national secrets. That’s also a fact. Those stated reserves have been
challenged using the original Society of Petroleum Engineers database on Saudi Arabia. The only place in the Middle East that has the real potential to expand its production, it’s believe, is Iraq. Saudi Arabia has spent 80 billion to get it’s production up from 9 million/day to 12 million. So yours and Ed’s argument that the investments are being made is only half right. What does the former head of Saudi ARAMCO’s production and exploration have to say about the future of global oil flow? Listern for yourself:
Dr Sadad Al-Husseini
Brown University PhD, former head of Saudi Armco’s production & exploration
November 1, 2007 interview
Page down to: Listen to the interview with Sadad al-Huseini.
davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=67
energybulletin.net/36510.html
In a revealing interview with journalist David Strahan at this year’s Oil & Money Conference, former head of Saudi Arabian exploration & production Sadad Al-Husseini told the world that he now believes that the current level of world oil production will likely never be exceeded. Al-Husseini’s view coincides with that of T. Boone Pickens, who stated at ASPO-USA’s Houston conference that the world oil production peaked in 2006. The 85 million barrels per day of liquids available to the markets now is all we’re ever going to get if these oil industry veterans are correct. With demand rising and supply flat, prices must rise. Accordingly, Al-Husseini believes that oil prices will rise by $12 per barrel per year from here on out, assuming a “base” price level of about $70 in 2007. The nominal price is now just above $92/barrel, so the difference must be due to the usual suspects cited by the mainstream media, including speculators, the weak dollar, rising Asian demand, resource nationalism, geopolitics in the Middle East, disruptions in Nigeria, and Iraq.
Why should I give you a coal quote? See that’s the point I’m making. You want me to spend my time so that you can disregard the effort. I want
you to reserach what the rate of coal consumption is, what’s extractable, and then with hard numbers report back to us that all is well for hundreds of years for power generation, if that’s what you believe. You can do the same with uranium too and debuke Goodstein’s point that ten thousand plants would use up the uranium supplies in 20 years time) Why should I spend my time reporting to you that global oil production is ~86 million per day (and has been since 2005), that CERA’s estimates of decline rates for those 86 million of ~4.5% per year is an annual loss in production of 4 million barrels per day (the same as Iran’s production, which BTW peaked 1979), and that to grow to CERA’s expected est of 112 million in 9 years requires the addition of 9 news Saudi Arabias? Why should I bother doing that for you to say, “Which is why we need to work to obtain new supplies – which are there”
For example, I read in a report that in 1991 th USGS estimated there was 500 years of US coal supply at what was then the “current rate of consumption.” But rates of consumption do not remain constant. From 1971 to 1991 the rate of consumption for US coal grew at an annualized rate of 2.86%.
You wanted a quote, here’s the quote:
“An example of what exponential growth means in resources can be seen with US coal reserves. Coal is the US’s most abundant fossil fuel. In 1991 the US Department of Energy reported that at current rate of use US coal reserves could last almost 500 years. But the caveat here is current rate of use. Between 1971 and 1991 the use of coal grew 2.86%. With this rate of growth US coal could last about 94 years if we could use it all, but more likely 72 years of coal would be recoverable.”
