GOP Convention / Primary Fight General Tread

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ucfengr said:
She got pretty well skunked in the last 5 primaries (including Washington State) with Bernie getting roughly 70% of the votes in each. That doesn’t sound like Hillary’s support is very enthusiastic.
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We’ve known for a very long time that Bernie would definitely skunk her in some races, so it’s no shock when that happens. Hillary will beat Bernie the same way the Obama beat Hillary in 2008…by amassing more of the popular votes and more of all types of delegates by the time the convention rolls around.

Don’t get me wrong - I really like and respect Senator Sanders and I won’t take a thing from him, the campaign he is running or his supporters, but we need to realize that the news media NEEDS to make his wins into a comeback story. That’s the narrative that keeps people coming back. At this point, it is almost impossible to map out a legitimate path to the nomination for Bernie. In the next few weeks, it will be hands-down impossible.
 
In the absense of a Rubio thread, this seems the perfect place to put this video on Rubio’s delegates. Especially since the question I want to ask isn’t really about Rubio. It’s “Does anyone in America still listen to this woman? If not why do they keep putting her on the air?”
 
Here’s the thing with The Donald. At the convention, he needs 1237 votes. As it’s looking now, he’s about 50/50 to getting there on the first ballot. Now, after the first ballot, something like 80% of the delegates are freed from being bound to their candidate. The next question is, how many of the delegates being sent to Cleveland that are bound to Trump are actually Trump backers? And how many are voting for Trump simply because they’re bound to? Same goes for delegates from all states.

As for rules determining eligibility on the convention floor, it made sense in 2012 for Romney to insist on that rule to prevent Ron Paul from instigating a floor fight, and it made sense for the GOP to concede it to him. Romney had an outright majority of delegates (by far) in 2012. This year, it might be that no candidate will have won an outright majority of delegates. If that’s the case, they might want to make it so that every candidate who won the plurality of delegates in at least one state was eligible for nomination on the first ballot. This means there would be four candidates on the first ballot (and yes, Rubio would be there, as “suspension” means “campaign suspended until the convention”). If they chose to let every candidate that won at least one delegate, it would expand to allow JEB, Carson, etc.

But regardless, this is a year where the GOP should be able to win the election. And yet, if the current trend continues, the GOP will be ripping defeat from the jaws of victory. Hillary is the worst candidate that the Dems could ever nominate. And most Americans can’t stand her. Yet, with current projections, if Trump wins the nomination, Hillary could easily win 49 states + DC.
 
powerofk said:
Here’s the thing with The Donald. At the convention, he needs 1237 votes. As it’s looking now, he’s about 50/50 to getting there on the first ballot. Now, after the first ballot, something like 80% of the delegates are freed from being bound to their candidate. The next question is, how many of the delegates being sent to Cleveland that are bound to Trump are actually Trump backers? And how many are voting for Trump simply because they’re bound to? Same goes for delegates from all states.

As for rules determining eligibility on the convention floor, it made sense in 2012 for Romney to insist on that rule to prevent Ron Paul from instigating a floor fight, and it made sense for the GOP to concede it to him. Romney had an outright majority of delegates (by far) in 2012. This year, it might be that no candidate will have won an outright majority of delegates. If that’s the case, they might want to make it so that every candidate who won the plurality of delegates in at least one state was eligible for nomination on the first ballot. This means there would be four candidates on the first ballot (and yes, Rubio would be there, as “suspension” means “campaign suspended until the convention”). If they chose to let every candidate that won at least one delegate, it would expand to allow JEB, Carson, etc.

But regardless, this is a year where the GOP should be able to win the election. And yet, if the current trend continues, the GOP will be ripping defeat from the jaws of victory. Hillary is the worst candidate that the Dems could ever nominate. And most Americans can’t stand her. Yet, with current projections, if Trump wins the nomination, Hillary could easily win 49 states + DC.
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If Trump doesn’t get it on the first ballot, he can make deals to get it on the second.
 
Peter_J said:
I think that was true … but after the amount of damage that the Party has sustained, who’s to say?
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They need to nominate somebody who has an “inner Reagan” that he can channel.
 
In_Hoc_Signo312 said:
They need to nominate somebody who has an “inner Reagan” that he can channel.
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Cruz is best for that. The man ahead of him is too negative (really what does any republican gain from nasty tweets about Megyn Kelly?) and the man behind him tells Christian businesses to “follow the law”. What kind of court justice would he pick?
 
SuperLuigi said:
Such as???
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Such as giving the nomination to kasich, or jeb bush, or paul ryan, someone who has no right to it but who is considered more polite, more palatable, more likely to win, more republican, more moderate, more whatever.

The GOP is saying, the heck with our front runner, the heck with the millions more votes Trump got. None of it matters. The party will pick whomever they want.

If trump loses, say hi to President hillary. There is no second scenario. You think the people are angry now? Wait till they kick out the front runner.
 
queenofheartscv said:
Such as giving the nomination to kasich, or jeb bush, or paul ryan, someone who has no right to it but who is considered more polite, more palatable, more likely to win, more republican, more moderate, more whatever.

The GOP is saying, the heck with our front runner, the heck with the millions more votes Trump got. None of it matters. The party will pick whomever they want.

If trump loses, say hi to President hillary. There is no second scenario. You think the people are angry now? Wait till they kick out the front runner.
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Well, maybe. But if he was the far-and-away front runner, he’d get the majority of the delegates on the first try. If that doesn’t happen, that’s evidence that the majority is not behind him and then the convention rules kick in which open up the possibility for other candidates.

That’s what those convention rules are in place for to begin with: in case no candidate gets the majority of delegates.

Should the nomination automatically go to whoever is in first place, regardless of whether or not he gets the majority? I suppose you could make that case, but that’s not how the party rules are set up. I can see why. If the front-runner’s support is that weak that he can’t get the majority, then exploring other options makes a certain amount of sense.

Will people be upset? Sure some will. Some would be upset if the GOP ignored the rules in place and went with Trump despite his not having a majority of delegates. Whatever they do, there will be those who complain and say “it’s not fair” and “I’m going to stay home on election day.”

I think once the dust settles and the decision is made (and the VP running mate is chosen), many won’t be as mad as they said they were going to be.
 
Joe_5859 said:
Well, maybe. But if he was the far-and-away front runner, he’d get the majority of the delegates on the first try. If that doesn’t happen, that’s evidence that the majority is not behind him and then the convention rules kick in which open up the possibility for other candidates.

That’s what those convention rules are in place for to begin with: in case no candidate gets the majority of delegates.

Should the nomination automatically go to whoever is in first place, regardless of whether or not he gets the majority? I suppose you could make that case, but that’s not how the party rules are set up. I can see why. If the front-runner’s support is that weak that he can’t get the majority, then exploring other options makes a certain amount of sense.

Will people be upset? Sure some will. Some would be upset if the GOP ignored the rules in place and went with Trump despite his not having a majority of delegates. Whatever they do, there will be those who complain and say “it’s not fair” and “I’m going to stay home on election day.”

I think once the dust settles and the decision is made (and the VP running mate is chosen), many won’t be as mad as they said they were going to be.
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Even if trump comes short, it’ll be about 100 or so delegates. He will be very close. To kick him out at that point will ensure his voters will abandon the party, not all of them, but enough of them to make a huge impact. The party will lose, not only the presidential election but the congress. Whether the party cares remains to be seen.
 
queenofheartscv said:
Such as giving the nomination to kasich, or jeb bush, or paul ryan, someone who has no right to it but who is considered more polite, more palatable, more likely to win, more republican, more moderate, more whatever.

The GOP is saying, the heck with our front runner, the heck with the millions more votes Trump got. None of it matters. The party will pick whomever they want.

If trump loses, say hi to President hillary. There is no second scenario. You think the people are angry now? Wait till they kick out the front runner.
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The nomination will not be “given” to anyone. Whoever is nominated will still have to have the votes of 1237 delegates.
 
DaveBj said:
The nomination will not be “given” to anyone. Whoever is nominated will still have to have the votes of 1237 delegates.
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Oh yes, if Jeb Bush ends up with those delegates, or John Kasich, you know the people haven’t chosen them. It’s as simple as that. You can twist it however you want.
 
queenofheartscv said:
Even if trump comes short, it’ll be about 100 or so delegates. He will be very close. To kick him out at that point will ensure his voters will abandon the party, not all of them, but enough of them to make a huge impact. The party will lose, not only the presidential election but the congress. Whether the party cares remains to be seen.
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But will they leave in greater numbers than the number of “nevertrumpers” who will return? That’s the question, I suppose.

It’s hard to cry foul, though, when the rules are there in place for all to see. Not that some won’t cry foul regardless of what direction things go. 🤷
 
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