Strawman argument. No climate scientist ever said there would be “dangerous or rapid climate change in the next two decades.” Climate change takes a long time and there is a long lag time between emissions and impact on climate. Perhaps the author (who doesn’t seem to know what he’s talking about) is referring to reaching tipping points. That may certainly happen within 20 years, or it may already have happened. That is the point at which we will be unable to reverse course, but will be drawn into a different, more life-inhospitable climate (slowly over the decades, centuries, and millennia…nothing to worry about tomorrow).
Because of the lag time, one study by 2 climate scientists estimates that with current levels of GHGs in the atmosphere there is 2.4C warming “in the pipes” in the long run as it plays out, even if we halt all emissions today. That much warming would virtually commit the system to melting methane now locked in ice permafrost and ocean hydrates, causing the warming to spiral out of control.
Let’s just hope that study is wrong and we actually do have some 10 or 20 years within which to drastically reduce our GHGs.
But even if correct, the main harms will not be on this generation, but on those to come. So no need to run away from rising seas…you’ll be able to vastly outrun those, since that will take 100s and 1000s of years to get to 10, 20, 60 feet above current levels.
“…The climate-research establishment has finally admitted openly what skeptic scientists have been saying for nearly a decade: Global warming has stopped since shortly before this century began.”
online.wsj.com/articles/matt-ridley-whatever-happened-to-global-warming-1409872855
Such a ridiculous statement. IF AGW had stopped then temps would be back down to pre-1980s levels.
Please report back to me in 20 years whether or not the globally averaged temp has indeed gone back down to pre-1980s levels.
Meanwhile, don’t be so impatient. No climate scientist ever predicted the temps would rise in a strictly increasing straight-line pattern. They are well aware of many factors impacting GW that makes is go up & down in a saw-blade pattern, with that blade angled upward due to GW.
In fact they had documented that warming has not paused, but actually continued in the deeper oceans and due to some increase in ocean overturn, the surface temps (and thus atmospheric temps) have remained roughly steady for the past 15 or so years. Since those are the temps they use (sea surface and land-atmospheric) to document GW, those temps “mask” the actual continued warming. (BTW they have always known the deeper oceans play a big roll in the warming, but they don’t ordinarily use those temps to document it on the whole, since they only have good data on deeper ocean temps since the 1960s).
It’s always best to consult climate science for information about climate science and NOT the Wall Street Journal. Newspapers often make mistakes, but rarely print retractions, unlike science, which is rigorously scrutinized thru peer-review.
The climate science on AGW is quite “robust,” supported by 10,000s of peer-reviewed studies from all different angles.
They’ll let you know if they find out something new. Climate scientists are a very competitive, highly intelligent and educated bunch and would love to disprove the others.