Mitt Romney Presidential Campaign

  • Thread starter Thread starter Al_Moritz
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
Mitt Romney 10 percent lead in unskewed data from ARG poll

The American Research Group (ARG) poll of the race between Mitt Romney and President Obama released today shows a 49 percent to 46 percent lead for the former governor of Massachusetts. The poll of 1200 likely voters, surveyed between September 4-6, has a margin of error of 3 percent. Over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, the survey sample included 38 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 28 percent independent voters.

The sampling of the ARG poll differs with the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.

The ARG survey has Democrats favoring Obama by a 85 percent to 11 percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 92 percent to five percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 49 percent to 44 percent edge.

If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 53 percent to 43 percent margin over President Obama. That would be a lead of 10 percent, larger than any for Romney reported by any recent national poll.
 
Mitt Romney electoral vote lead holds strong through both conventions
http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/de...sh/7b/4a/7b4a905ed1a0d26deaab6a125ab341ac.jpg
Click to expand...
The state polls and race for electoral votes shows to be unchanged from the last GOP2112 analysis of the electoral vote race published here August 25, 2012. Not a single state has moved into a different category since then, and Romney maintains the electoral vote lead of 317 to 179 over Obama with 42 electoral votes from Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon remaining in toss-up status. The map above shows which ways the states are leaning in this presidential race.

Here is information and analysis on some of the key swing states:

New Hampshire: The RCP average favor Obama by only 3.5 percent with both candidates well under 50 percent. The latest PPP survey is an outlier, and the average of the other three polls listed would place Obama at 47.3 percent to Romney at 44.7 percent. Most undecided voters will break for Obama and New Hampshire will return to its historic pattern of voting for the Republican nominee. New Hampshire leans Republican.

New Jersey: This projection has suggested the last few times that New Jersey might be in play and the latest Quinnipiac survey shows Obama’s lead in NJ falling to only seven percent. Romney has risen to 44 percent in that poll. If the next credible poll of New Jersey moves Romney at least up to 45 percent and Obama below 50 percent, this state will move to toss-up. Right now, it is leaning Democrat.

Pennsylvania: RCP is showing two newspaper commissioned polls that are not held in high esteem by this analysis and a Franklin and Marshall College poll showing Obama leading 47 percent to 42 percent over Mitt Romney. The survey appears to modestly over-sample Democratic voters, therefore the state of the race between Romney and Obama in this state is probably still quite close. Until further evidence warrants concluding otherwise, Pennsylvania is a toss-up.

Florida: Florida is a key state where skewed media polls and those who wish to believe them rather than know how the race actually stands, cause many to buy into the perception that Obama is running stronger than he is. The RCP average has Obama at 47.3 percent ot Romney at 46.7 percent. This average includes two blatantly skewed media polls and that of the Democrat-leaning firm Public Policy Polling. The remaining three polls, if averaged, would show a Romney lead of 47.0 percent to 45.7 percent. Florida leans Republican.

Virginia: The RCP average is 47.3 percent Obama to 46.7 Romney, which includes the PPP poll showing Obama leading by five percent, which is clearly an outlier. Factoring that out, the other two surveys average to Romney a 1.5 percent lead. Virginia remains in the category of leaning Republican.

Ohio: Despite including two polls that over-sample Democrats and feature skewed results (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac and Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cin), the RCP average shows Obama barely leading the state by a 46.2 percent to 45.5 percent margin. The remaining polls would indicate a Romney lead of 45.8 percent to 44.5 percent. Both campaigns are focusing heavily on Ohio and it will be close but Romney will win it by a few percent. Ohio leans Republican.

Colorado: Obama leads only 2.3 percent in the RCP average and the most recent survey of the state is one by Democrat-leaning PPP which shows Obama leading by 3 percent. Odds after if that polls shows a 3 percent lead for Obama, the state is likely tied at best. Colorado leans Republican.

Both sides hold their national conventions and get small but likely to fade away “bounces” in the polls and the race remains entirely unchanged. Barack Obama has all the support he’s going to get and has to hope to higher turnout among the groups and constituencies among the electorate that are more likely to vote for him. Romney has yet to close the sale for the few remaining undecided voters and has a huge financial advantage with which to purchase advertising with which to do that. The Republican turnout organization nationally should give the GOP a key advantage which will win the White House and a majority in the U.S. Senate on election day.

examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-electoral-vote-lead-holds-strong-through-both-conventions
 
I just listened to Mitt Romney on Meet the Press.

I have to admit, I like Mitt. I liked him when he was my governor.

On the other hand, I also listened to Paul Ryan on This Week With George Stephanopoulos, and he’s another George Bush.

Perhaps I can live with a good president with a lousy VP. After all, Biden isn’t a bright star as VP.

Jim
 
JimR-OCDS said:
I just listened to Mitt Romney on Meet the Press.

I have to admit, I like Mitt. I liked him when he was my governor.

On the other hand, I also listened to Paul Ryan on This Week With George Stephanopoulos, and he’s another George Bush.

Perhaps I can live with a good president with a lousy VP. After all, Biden isn’t a bright star as VP.

Jim
Click to expand...
Why do you think Paul Ryan is another George Bush?
 
JimR-OCDS said:
I just listened to Mitt Romney on Meet the Press.

I have to admit, I like Mitt. I liked him when he was my governor.

On the other hand, I also listened to Paul Ryan on This Week With George Stephanopoulos, and he’s another George Bush.

Perhaps I can live with a good president with a lousy VP. After all, Biden isn’t a bright star as VP.

Jim
Click to expand...
Jim,

Did you catch the “we believe in the same God” comment? I thought this was very odd and inaccurate for him to say this.

Pork
 
_Abyssinia said:
Why do you think Paul Ryan is another George Bush?
Click to expand...
Well after watching him on TV this morning, he not only couldn’t answer questions with coherent sentences, he was also contradicting Romney on economic plans.

Romney this morning denied that he would repeal Obama Care, Ryan said that’s the first thing they would do.

Romney, he would modify Obama Care with his own plan. The current law of people not being rejected for previous conditions, and keeping their kids on their policies until age 26, Romney said he would not get rid of and pointed to his own plan in Massachusetts which has these provisions.

Jim
 
Porknpie said:
Jim,

Did you catch the “we believe in the same God” comment? I thought this was very odd and inaccurate for him to say this.

Pork
Click to expand...
Why was it inaccurate?

They believe in the same one true God as Jews, Muslims and Catholics. They don’t believe in the divinity of Jesus Christ, but neither do Jews and Muslims.

Yet, the Pope has said that Jews and Muslims believe in the same God as we do.

Jim
 
JimR-OCDS said:
Well after watching him on TV this morning, he not only couldn’t answer questions with coherent sentences, he was also contradicting Romney on economic plans.

Romney this morning denied that he would repeal Obama Care, Ryan said that’s the first thing they would do.

Romney, he would modify Obama Care with his own plan. The current law of people not being rejected for previous conditions, and keeping their kids on their policies until age 26, Romney said he would not get rid of and pointed to his own plan in Massachusetts which has these provisions.

Jim
Click to expand...
Where do you think in transcript Ryan contradicted Romney?

Romney said

‘Of course there are a number of things that I like in health care reform that I’m going to put in place,’’ he said in an interview broadcast Sunday on NBC’s ‘‘Meet the Press.’’ ‘’One is to make sure that those with pre-existing conditions can get coverage’

‘I say we’re going to replace Obamacare. And I’m replacing it with my own plan,’’ Romney said. ‘‘And even in Massachusetts when I was governor, our plan there deals with pre-existing conditions and with young people’

bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2012/09/09/romney-says-likes-parts-obamacare/YnZ14f8WHqCZjzRmUDwIqI/story.html

Romney did not say he would not repeal ObamaTax
 
I wouldn’t count Mitt Romney out just yet. He is just now able to tap his general election funds.

Here is the Meet the Press interview you guys are talking about
nbcnews.to/RA1jOi
 
Romney Spanish-language ad hits Obama for broken ‘promises’
Mitt Romney’s campaign on Saturday unveiled a new Spanish-language television ad targeting Hispanic voters and accusing President Obama of offering “promises” and delivering “nothing” on the economy,
Click to expand...
The ad, titled “Ya No Más,” opens with a clip or President Obama telling voters “Yes, we can” at a boisterous 2008 campaign rally.
Click to expand...
The ad then showcases seven Latino voters who share their disappointment with Obama’s policies.
Click to expand...
“I voted for Obama four years ago. I believed in what he said,” says one voter, identified as Gustavo Pinto.
Click to expand...
Another, Sandra Mora, adds, “He tells us a lot of nice things, then forgets about us.”
Click to expand...
“Obama has no idea what we are going through,” says Lilly Lopez, while Roberto Serna adds “He looks like a nice guy, but that doesn’t get us jobs.”
Click to expand...
“Promises and promises and nothing,” says Aline Fernandez of Obama’s tenure.
Click to expand...
The ad concludes with voter Olga Rodriguez saying “I will not give Mr. Obama four more years.”
Click to expand...
thehill.com/video/campaign/248309-romney-spanish-language-ad-hits-obama-for-broken-promises

youtube.com/watch?v=WES1tDVzm9Y
 
oldcelt said:
Romney: Policy means more than words on Afghanistan

content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/09/mitt-romney-afghanistan-convention-speech-/1#.UEy7aLKPWrh

A pretty weak defense for what many believe was a glaring omission.

John
Click to expand...
Since he does not have access to intelligence or to the generals, what did you expect of him?

I think we do know Obama’s plan. He plans to cut and run as soon as he can do it without endangering his election and with enough delay to make it look like this was not his plan during the campaign.

More soldiers have now died in Afghanistan under Obama than under Bush. But he will have to “sacrifice” a few more to make it look the way he wants it to look.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top