C
CaptFun
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Red above … and boldings, etc. … my emphasisWe know now that people with private plans are in a world of hurt and will probably all be forced onto the exchanges.
We know now that “small employer” plans are very limited as to insurers and providers. So far, it looks like my area has only one of each. And, because of mandates, they’re expensive. So a lot of employees of small businesses will probably also go onto the exchanges. If employers try to “make up for” the lack of employer-provided insurance with money, employees’ taxes and those of employers will increase.
Now we can all speculate on what the big employer part is going to be like.
-It will be more expensive, of course, because of mandates. employees will be expected to pay more than they did before. So will employers, so prices have to increase.
-But employers will try to avoid charging more than (what is it now?) 9.5% of each employee’s income for the employee-paid part. So, they’ll need new people and programs to figure all of that out.
-On the low end of the salary scale, employers will have a tremendous incentive to put them on part time, because if they go over 30 employees that go on the exchanges because of the 9.5% cap, they get fined for every employee they have, whether insured or not. For an employer with, say, 100,000 employees, that would be about $2 million/year.
-On the high end, the 40% tax on “cadillac plans” will perhaps require special withholding. I’m not sure where the IRS is with that just yet.
-Labor problems where the labor force is organized are likely, since union-administered plans are pretty much “cadillac” plans. Are union members really going to just do nothing to get somebody else to pay for it, or will they engage in strikes and slowdowns in order to get more money? If they do, of course, prices will have to go up.
-On the positive side, it’s possible a lot of overtime will be available for full time employees. Their additional pay will not cause either theirs or the employer’s Obamacare costs to go up, and full time workers will probably much better skilled and motivated than all the “second class” part-timers.
-The “well worker effect” will disappear due to portability. So, disproportionately lower premiums for industrial workers will gradually disappear. If employer coverage is truly portable, further administration on the part of insurers will be required.
As a separate matter, as time goes on, Medicare reimbursement will fall below that of medicaid, and elderly people will be S.O.L. when it comes to medical care.
I don’t know.*** Kind of looks to me like Obama and his people have punched a hole in the hull of the “ship of state” that’s too big to plug. ***And that’s if they don’t control congress after 2014 and do something even more insane.
And, of course, eventually even Janet Yellen will have to stop the quantitative easing Bernanke has employed to ameliorate the effects of this disasterous administration.
Not looking too good.
Thanks for your detailed analysis and hard work Ridgerunner (and many other times).
I’m horrified with the proliferation of spying and information gathering “our government” is doing everywhere (home and abroad) these days. Having control of health care means potentially mapping each citizen from the inside out. Scary!
That “punched a hole in the ship of state …” line - I think I agree with. Question is:
- was this a particularly stupid accident … or something else
– a brilliant, deviously planned preliminary to Obama’s promised “transformation of America”)? < That is, the wrecking ball that clears the way to the long promised utopia.
When I think of the invasion of individual privacy we often submit to when we put ourselves into things like hospital care … and then consider the dark possibility
Jesus quoted Psalm 22 while on the cross. Some of his followers also suffered martyrdoms at the hands of an all-powerful state. The evil people the Psalmist complains of (and warns his readers of?) have almost total power, almost no compassion nor mercy,They have pierced my hands and my feet, they have numbered all of my bones.
and a hunger to play God with their increasing knowledge by “numbering all the bones” as God assures us “Even all the hairs of your head are counted” (by Him).
The US system of checks and balances precludes the easy rise of a state that rules over its people. This “Nanny State idea” based on: class warfare jealousies, freedom from responsibilities for some/impossible responsibilities for the “spoils system” victims of the day – and with (it sometimes seems) the worst possible people in charge … really DOESN’T “look good” to me. :bigyikes:
Or increasingly … even to some of its boosters to date.
latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-democrats-republicans-obamacare-rollout-20131023,0,5719231.story#axzz2jFDs0fMZ < “Democrats disturbed by Obamacare rollout – and GOP criticism” (LA Times 10/23/2013)
washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/10/25/the-morning-plum-yes-liberals-should-criticize-obamacare-failings/ < “Yes, liberals should criticize Obamacare failings” (Washington Post 10/25/2013)