Obama and Romney Hit Final Stretch Part 3

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Interestingly, with most polls sampling Democrats versus Republicans at +7 DEM, Gallup’s most recent national poll has sampled +1 GOP. This poll shows Romney ahead, though still within the margin of error.

I do not believe that voter turnout will look anything like the 2008 election in terms of the numbers of Democrats, but I could be wrong.
 
jwinch2 said:
Interestingly, with most polls sampling Democrats versus Republicans at +7 DEM, Gallup’s most recent national poll has sampled +1 GOP. This poll shows Romney ahead, though still within the margin of error.

I do not believe that voter turnout will look anything like the 2008 election in terms of the numbers of Democrats, but I could be wrong.
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Nor do I. If it is even a push (ie, R=D), Romney wins handily.
 
Obama Campaign to Supporters: Don’t Panic Over Early Exit Polls
In a conference call this afternoon, President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign had one central message for their supporters when Election Day arrives tomorrow: They should “keep calm,” even if they hear snippets of information favoring Republican Mitt Romney.
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“My warning, we need to stay calm for much of the day,” Stephanie Cutter, Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign manager, said, touting thousands of early ballots already submitted by voters. “We’ve already banked a pretty big portion of our vote.”
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The fear, she explained, was early numbers leaking before voters have finished going to the polls, creating unnecessary panic and pessimism among Democrats.
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“Keep calm and tweet on,” Ms. Cutter said. “So, no matter what you hear tomorrow about turnout in Republican counties or exit polls, particularly early in the day, please remember and remind your readers that, because of early votes, we’re where we need to be to win….I don’t think there’s going to be official exits until the end of the day, but if things leak out that aren’t validated or weighted, please stay calm.”
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_Abyssinia said:
50% of military bases do not have a voting assistance office. Military absentee ballots have declined 70%. Some military have not recieved absentee ballots. This is disfranchisement
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ALL disenfranchisement is wrong and should be remedied immediately. And if the electronic voting is being tampered with, such as Romney votes being changed to Obama, this should be investigated and corrected as well. I’m very wary of electronic voting in general with no hard copies or receipts.
 
meltzerboy said:
ALL disenfranchisement is wrong and should be remedied immediately. And if the electronic voting is being tampered with, such as Romney votes being changed to Obama, this should be investigated and corrected as well. I’m very wary of electronic voting in general with no hard copies or receipts.
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Me, too. Internet voting in NJ? Seriously? Because, you know, nobody ever gets their computer hacked or anything.

I tip my cap to you, sir. Spoken like a patriot.👍
 
Luigi_Daniele said:
Nor do I. If it is even a push (ie, R=D), Romney wins handily.
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From the reports I have seen, if it is +2 or 3 DEM, the Romney has a shot, but it will be close. If it is +4 or more, Obama wins without question. If it is +7 as it was in 2008, Obama wins in a landslide. If it is a push, Romney wins by a large margin. If it is +1 as Gallup’s poll seems to suggest, it will be a landslide, but for Romney instead.

Again, it comes down to who is accurately predicting voter turnout. Traditionally, early voting is good for DEMS and bad for the GOP. This year, the numbers are better than normal for the GOP. Whether that trend holds tomorrow is of course, yet to be seen.
 
jwinch2 said:
From the reports I have seen, if it is +2 or 3 DEM, the Romney has a shot, but it will be close. If it is +4 or more, Obama wins without question. If it is +7 as it was in 2008, Obama wins in a landslide. If it is a push, Romney wins by a large margin. If it is +1 as Gallup’s poll seems to suggest, it will be a landslide, but for Romney instead.

Again, it comes down to who is accurately predicting voter turnout. Traditionally, early voting is good for DEMS and bad for the GOP. This year, the numbers are better than normal for the GOP. Whether that trend holds tomorrow is of course, yet to be seen.
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Agree with your analysis, sir.

I will add, I just don’t believe that the Tea Party, who walked across broken glass barefooted to vote in 2010, has just disappeared now that they can finally oust the object of their wrath. Remember how everyone (except me:D , Dick Morris and Barone) was floored by the turnout in 2010?
 
Luigi_Daniele said:
Agree with your analysis, sir.

I will add, I just don’t believe that the Tea Party, who walked across broken glass barefooted to vote in 2010, has just disappeared now that they can finally oust the object of their wrath. Remember how everyone (except me:D , Dick Morris and Barone) was floored by the turnout in 2010?
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I wasn’t here in 2010, so I cannot comment on what your position was at the time. Neither do I remember what Morris or Barone had to say. However, Barone, as recently as yesterday, predicted a big win for Romney. While I certainly hope he is correct, I am cautious by nature on these sorts of things. washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-beats-obama-handily/article/2512470#.UJhgcW80WSo In 2010, the Tea Party could elect candidates to the house who truly represented their positions. I am not convinced that they are thrilled with Romney themselves. I do feel that they will show up, but perhaps not with the same vigor (read: numbers) as in 2010.
 
_Abyssinia said:
I want Romney to win. I am questioning the Stanford professors’ analysis and I think my questions are key as to his accuracy
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One of your links directed me to this:

*Credit Suffolk for doing some of the most interesting polling of this cycle. Rather than toss another statewide poll onto the pile, they took a detailed look at one bellwether county in Ohio and two bellwether towns in New Hampshire. The verdict? Good news for Romney, but not much room for comfort:

** In Lake County, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted.** Duncan, an Ohioan listed on the presidential ballot, received most of his support from voters who have already cast ballots for him in Lake County, causing neither major candidate to reach a decisive 50 percent there.
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“What better place to decide this presidential election than on the banks of Lake Erie,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “A word of caution about Lake County. It is widely recognized as an Ohio bellwether, correctly predicting the last four presidential elections. But there have been some elections where it has trended more Republican. That was the case in 1996 and 2008, where Lake County voted for the Democratic nominees who won, but still leaned more Republican than the statewide vote*.”
This is where I was raised on the Lake Erie shores! My sister in Painesville Twp. says the race is tight in Lake County “Too many Democrats here” she said, but “there are still plenty of Republicans here who want Romney to win”. I agree. You have a lot of union workers and blue collar types mixed in with traditional Republican types. Catholics in the area are fairly conservative - many hail originally from Poland, Hungary and a great many are from Italy. It will be a tough race, no doubt!
 
jwinch2 said:
From the reports I have seen, if it is +2 or 3 DEM, the Romney has a shot, but it will be close. If it is +4 or more, Obama wins without question. If it is +7 as it was in 2008, Obama wins in a landslide. If it is a push, Romney wins by a large margin. If it is +1 as Gallup’s poll seems to suggest, it will be a landslide, but for Romney instead.

Again, it comes down to who is accurately predicting voter turnout. Traditionally, early voting is good for DEMS and bad for the GOP. This year, the numbers are better than normal for the GOP. Whether that trend holds tomorrow is of course, yet to be seen.
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I think Gallup says it will be plus 3 republican, Rasmussen’s party affiliation for october was republican plus 5.8%. But then why are they oversampling their polls with democrat advantage?
 
_Abyssinia said:
I think Gallup says it will be plus 3 republican, Rasmussen’s party affiliation for october was republican plus 5.8%. But then why are they oversampling their polls with democrat advantage?
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They don’t believe their own information. Same as in 2010:)
 
jwinch2 said:
Interestingly, with most polls sampling Democrats versus Republicans at +7 DEM, Gallup’s most recent national poll has sampled +1 GOP. This poll shows Romney ahead, though still within the margin of error.

I do not believe that voter turnout will look anything like the 2008 election in terms of the numbers of Democrats, but I could be wrong.
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R+1 probably reflects the electorate closer in 2012. But I’m just a lawyer, not Larry Sabato or Joe Trippe.
 
jwinch2 said:
Interestingly, with most polls sampling Democrats versus Republicans at +7 DEM, Gallup’s most recent national poll has sampled +1 GOP. This poll shows Romney ahead, though still within the margin of error.

I do not believe that voter turnout will look anything like the 2008 election in terms of the numbers of Democrats, but I could be wrong.
Click to expand...
If they all used the same average sample, imagine what the polls would look like? All polls adjusted to reflect D+3 versus D+7?
 
Texas GOP Sues Texas Dems Over NAACP Behavior in Polls
Texas GOP Vote has the full press release:
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In addition, we have seen the reports that many of you saw on Townhall.com, the Drudge Report, and local media regarding events at the Acres Homes polling location on Friday and the inappropriate behavior by the NAACP. Any means of pushing a candidate or issue within the boundaries of the polling site violates Texas law. It is a well-known and enforced law; therefore, there is little excuse for the NAACP regarding this behavior. Harris County has measures in place to assist voters who have difficulty standing and the NAACP should not cherry-pick which voters deserve to go first. Harris County runs the election process, not the NAACP. If the NAACP plans to have people around the polls, they should properly train them on what is legal and appropriate behavior just as the rest of us do with our workers. We urge the County Attorney Vince Ryan (D) to take appropriate action
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What happened inside these polls is almost certainly a crime. The NAACP representatives allowing some voters to cut lines, regardless of the reason, were probably there illegally. What is most troubling is how Harris County Attorney Vince Ryan’s office seems to be running interference for the lawbreakers, providing excuses and alternative explanations for the illegal conduct.
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Luigi_Daniele said:
And is particularly anxious to avoid a “Romney has won how many states? Not bothering to vote, then” moment
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I want a Romney landslide, a very convincing win to dispel all doubts. But I also want new Porsche for Christmas. I’m not sure which one is more likely! 🙂
 
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