Papal encyclical did not settle scientific questions, says former Vatican official [CWN]

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Pope Francis did not intend to settle any scientific questions in Laudato Si’, according to an Italian bishop who helped draft the encyclical.Bishop Mario Toso of Faenza-Modigliana …

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** MINI ICE AGE **

"Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to ‘mini ice age’ levels: Sun driven by double dynamo
Date:

July 9, 2015
Source:

Royal Astronomical Society (RAS)

Summary:
A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645. "

“Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.”

sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm

:hmmm:

Cool picture of the sun in the link.
 
** MINI ICE AGE **

"Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to ‘mini ice age’ levels: Sun driven by double dynamo
Date:

July 9, 2015
Source:

Royal Astronomical Society (RAS)

Summary:
A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645. "

“Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.”

sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm
If that pans out – it is just one study – then that would mean a situation similar to this last, unusually deep solar minimum, during which climate change denialists have jumped all over, claiming AGW has stopped.

Since it has not stopped and the GHG concentration will be even higher during 2030-2040, we can expect the enhanced greenhouse effect to pretty much neutralize that short term, deep solar minimum, with temps again remaining stable for the 11 year period or perhaps dropping a bit. However, it also means there will be a terrible rebound during the doubled up solar maximums that could wipe out even greater swathes of life during their 11 year cycles.

IOW, if that study pans out we may get a slight reprieve from 2030 to 2040 from the terrible warming, and I imagine there may still be climate change denialists coming out of the woodwork jumping all over, claiming AGW has stopped 🙂

I mean back in 1990 when I got seriously involved in mitigating AGW, I had naively assumed there would be absolutely no more climate change denialists by 2000, and certainly not by 2015, but I was terribly wrong in my projections. They have a horrible staying power that contributes to our lack of mitigating this problem and thereby the death and destruction from it. It is one of the great evils of our day.

As an old Hindu friend of mine spending her wealth in charitable works used to say before she passed away, “If people can’t do good, at least they shouldn’t do bad.”

If people cannot afford to replace their incandescent lights with LEDs and buy energy efficient appliances, or move closer to work and schools, or get solar panels and onto wind-powered electricity, and the myriad of other mitigation measures, at least they shouldn’t be in the business of dissuading everyone else from doing these things.
 
If that pans out – it is just one study – then that would mean a situation similar to this last, unusually deep solar minimum, during which climate change denialists have jumped all over, claiming AGW has stopped.

Since it has not stopped and the GHG concentration will be even higher during 2030-2040, we can expect the enhanced greenhouse effect to pretty much neutralize that short term, deep solar minimum, with temps again remaining stable for the 11 year period or perhaps dropping a bit. However, it also means there will be a terrible rebound during the doubled up solar maximums that could wipe out even greater swathes of life during their 11 year cycles.

IOW, if that study pans out we may get a slight reprieve from 2030 to 2040 from the terrible warming, and I imagine there may still be climate change denialists coming out of the woodwork jumping all over, claiming AGW has stopped 🙂

I mean back in 1990 when I got seriously involved in mitigating AGW, I had naively assumed there would be absolutely no more climate change denialists by 2000, and certainly not by 2015, but I was terribly wrong in my projections. They have a horrible staying power that contributes to our lack of mitigating this problem and thereby the death and destruction from it. It is one of the great evils of our day.

As an old Hindu friend of mine spending her wealth in charitable works used to say before she passed away, “If people can’t do good, at least they shouldn’t do bad.”

If people cannot afford to replace their incandescent lights with LEDs and buy energy efficient appliances, or move closer to work and schools, or get solar panels and onto wind-powered electricity, and the myriad of other mitigation measures, at least they shouldn’t be in the business of dissuading everyone else from doing these things.
I agree with you, that we should try to mitigate the problem, just in case global warming is true. We should always try to do what is right.

What do you think of this?

"Australia to become ANTARCTIC this weekend as icy blast sends temperatures plunging to their lowest levels in 15 years - so cold that even Queensland could get snow "

“Australia hasn’t seen such a northward spread of snow since May, 2000. There is also a chance of snow across parts of South Australia over ‘the next five or six days’.
The weather ski resorts in Victoria and NSW will be given a much-needed boost of 20-50cm of fresh powder after a slow start to the season.”

The link is below, with some beautiful pictures.

Read more: dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3155495/Australia-set-ANTARCTICA-icy-blast-set-temperatures-plunge-15-year-lows-ski-resorts-set-bottom-conditions.html#ixzz3fd8stavW

+PAX
 
Socialism is evil. Liberals push socialism. They have grabbed on to a few paragraphs of the encyclical to claim that it supports their evil views.
What’s it all about?

Why are many vocal climate change denialists self-proclaimed conservatives? What is it about the encyclical Laudato Si’ that so disturbs them? And what are the paragraphs of the encyclical we are told “liberals” are claiming support their evil views?

It is unreasonable to maintain that humans have not caused nearly irreversible damage to the environment, and it is equally unreasonable to maintain that the science of climate change and AGW is not settled. So why the denial? And why the meaningless references to evil “liberals” that proves nothing at all?

Empirical facts are not matters of belief, and neither is the science of climate change. A rational conclusion would be that this denial of reality concerns vested interests. After all, both lasses-faire capitalism and supposed free markets are subjects of intense scrutiny and criticism, while the pontiff might as well have called trickle-down theories what they are: voodooo economics.

So, it is at least understandable why those with a vested interest in maintaining the current cultural paradigm would be concerned by the papal encyclical, for they are called, as a moral obligation, to radically alter their very way of life.
 
Climate change = science = prudential judgement

Being concerned for all of God’s creation = a teaching of Jesus

It’s pretty hard to get behind an agenda that is most associated with a political ideology that has as part of it’s platform the killing of innocent human beings and soon total endorsement of euthanasia. One can be skeptical of climate change and still care for God’s creation.
 
Climate change = science = prudential judgement

Being concerned for all of God’s creation = a teaching of Jesus

It’s pretty hard to get behind an agenda that is most associated with a political ideology that has as part of it’s platform the killing of innocent human beings and soon total endorsement of euthanasia. One can be skeptical of climate change and still care for God’s creation.
Prudential judgment is neither science nor climate change. But it is an error to conclude that actions taken as a result of prudential judgments are necessarily morally correct. This isn’t known and could result from “having stifled the protest of the anamnesis of being”–in other words from a misinformed conscience resulting from a failure to consider known information, its detailed context and its relation to Catholic tradition and teaching. The fault then is not in the present act of conscience but much deeper, in the denial of the call of internal truth that an informed conscience would hear. This is to say a prudential judgment can indeed be immoral.

Is it also pretty hard to get behind the teachings of the papal encyclical Laudato Si’?
 
I agree with you, that we should try to mitigate the problem, just in case global warming is true. We should always try to do what is right.
Also bec nearly all AGW mitigation measures also mitigate other problems, as well.
What do you think of this?
"Australia to become ANTARCTIC this weekend as icy blast sends temperatures plunging to their lowest levels in 15 years - so cold that even Queensland could get snow "
“Australia hasn’t seen such a northward spread of snow since May, 2000. There is also a chance of snow across parts of South Australia over ‘the next five or six days’.
The weather ski resorts in Victoria and NSW will be given a much-needed boost of 20-50cm of fresh powder after a slow start to the season.”
The link is below, with some beautiful pictures.
There are several things which global warming is causing and impacting. One of them is longer and stronger Rossby waves (in the atmosphere), which for the northern latitudes brings cold arctic weather southward (and warmer weather northward into the arctic). I imagine the same would be for the southern latitudes, including Australia (where it is winter now). Here is a image of Rossby waves:



The main point is that the global average temperature does not change with these – only the regional weather gets rearranged.

The reason I’ve been keeping up on this topic is that we live in the subtropical zone of the Rio Grande Valley, where we only get a killing frost maybe once in 7 or 8 years, and crops and garden veggies are grown in winter (despite a bit less sunlight); it’s really too hot in summer. I was thinking one silver lining with global warming would be less frequent winter freezes…until I realized we seemed to be getting more frequent and bizarre ones, which led me to do some research on global warming & Rossby waves or negative arctic oscillations.
 
When it speaks about AGW, it is venturing into scientific opinion, and as such, can be disagreed with.
If that much. Usually scientific theories and statements are presented with mathematics and derivations of some sort. Galileo and Newton, for example, explained their theories in such fashion. So the former Vatican official might have a point. But that’s not to discredit the encyclical, which in many ways reminds me of Populorum Progressio, which was well-intended but whose “conscience” clause, among other things, was vastly misunderstood.
 
Perhaps I should further explain my above comment about prudential judgement by using a concrete example. Suppose the leader of a country is persuaded that a foreign power is attempting to produce WMD, or maybe already has them and intends to use them against the interests of the first leader’s country. But not everyone, not even among his own advisors, agrees the threat in real. Neverthess, the leader of the first country invades the foreign power in what he believes is a morally justified pre-emptive attack. But it turns out there are no WMD, and the result is social and political chaos for the invaded country that even years later is only worsening.

Now, both sides of the debate in the first country, in their prudential judgment, believed that their respective positions were morally correct. Objectively, could they both have been right?

No. It isn’t possible. And this holds true of any moral debate concerning climate change or AGW.
 
What is socialism but caring and sharing, making sure no one goes hungry or without health care, etc. The early Christian Church followed that principle, as do convents and monasteries.

I think the encyclical made it quite clear that laissez faire, cut-throat global capitalism that chews up the poor and spits them out as garbage is evil.
Socialism is NOT “caring and sharing”. It is FORCED redistribution at the end of a gun.

Socialism is CONDEMNED by the Church. The early Christian Church did NOT practice socialism. They FREELY gave of their wealth to help others. That is NOT socialism. They didn’t ask Caesar to come in and tax others to “help” the poor.

And it must be reiterated, the Church has condemned socialism as EVIL.
 
What’s it all about?

Why are many vocal climate change denialists self-proclaimed conservatives? What is it about the encyclical Laudato Si’ that so disturbs them? And what are the paragraphs of the encyclical we are told “liberals” are claiming support their evil views?

It is unreasonable to maintain that humans have not caused nearly irreversible damage to the environment, and it is equally unreasonable to maintain that the science of climate change and AGW is not settled. So why the denial? And why the meaningless references to evil “liberals” that proves nothing at all?

Empirical facts are not matters of belief, and neither is the science of climate change. A rational conclusion would be that this denial of reality concerns vested interests. After all, both lasses-faire capitalism and supposed free markets are subjects of intense scrutiny and criticism, while the pontiff might as well have called trickle-down theories what they are: voodooo economics.

So, it is at least understandable why those with a vested interest in maintaining the current cultural paradigm would be concerned by the papal encyclical, for they are called, as a moral obligation, to radically alter their very way of life.
And yet, none of the predictions have come true from the global warming hysterics crowd.

And the “solutions” they propose always involve socialism, which is evil.

That’s why it is prudent to oppose it, first because it is myth, and second because it promotes evil.
 
What is socialism but caring and sharing, making sure no one goes hungry or without health care, etc. The early Christian Church followed that principle, as do convents and monasteries.

I think the encyclical made it quite clear that laissez faire, cut-throat global capitalism that chews up the poor and spits them out as garbage is evil. With the only protection being “buyer beware” and sue Monsanto if you think they caused your cancer bec of all the Agent Orange released into your very poor neighborhood where they produced it (like in Mission, TX); and good luck suing them assuming you have mega-time & mega-money to do so, bec they will sue you right back for $millions claiming it was a frivolous lawsuit. The young man who lived across from the plant, who had 4 kidney transplants and brain surgery finally died last summer, so I guess he’ll never get his $2000 from the lawsuit as a small % of the “lucky” others got.

The gov does have a role in protecting our health and well-being (including environmental protections), in building roads and schools, maintaining infrastructure and enhancing it for the onslaught of climate change effects, such as Katrina and Sandy – tho the U.S. gov is failing miserably at that role. Even the most capitalistic society has elements of socialism.

I think we can all agree that in some ways and contexts capitalism and the supply/demand forces work well, assuming people aren’t being brainwashed into buying heaps of junk.* It is good for people to take responsibility for themselves and others and not fall into infantile dependency on the state (we are really disturbed by our ne’er-do-well relatives that keep hitting us up for cash, for their own sake, of course :)). We want people to be as free as possible to make their own choices and become mature, conscientious adults, as long as they aren’t harming others.

In other cases capitalism does not work well. And in some cases we need government to provide protections, including laws and regulations that prevent companies and others from poisoning us and destroying our climate in which we produce our food and live relatively good and healthy lives.

So it is ridiculous to argue that capitalism is better than socialism or vice versa – both have their place and roles, and both need to pass the “common good” and “individual human dignity” tests.

*from Laudato Si:
203. Since the market tends to promote extreme consumerism in an effort to sell its products, people can easily get caught up in a whirlwind of needless buying and spending. Compulsive consumerism is one example of how the techno-economic paradigm affects individuals. Romano Guardini had already foreseen this: “The gadgets and technics forced upon him by the patterns of machine production and of abstract planning mass man accepts quite simply; they are the forms of life itself. To either a greater or lesser degree mass man is convinced that his conformity is both reasonable and just”.144 That paradigm leads people to believe that they are free as long as they have the supposed freedom to consume. But those really free are the minority who wield economic and financial power…
204. The current global situation engenders a feeling of instability and uncertainty, which in turn becomes “a seedbed for collective selfishness”.145 When people become self-centred and self-enclosed, their greed increases. The emptier a person’s heart is, the more he or she needs things to buy, own and consume. It becomes almost impossible to accept the limits imposed by reality. In this horizon, a genuine sense of the common good also disappears. As these attitudes become more widespread, social norms are respected only to the extent that they do not clash with personal needs. So our concern cannot be limited merely to the threat of extreme weather events, but must also extend to the catastrophic consequences of social unrest. Obsession with a consumerist lifestyle, above all when few people are capable of maintaining it, can only lead to violence and mutual destruction.
The irony here is too rich a vein not to at least give a tiny tap.

When one vehemently supports measures designed to cause utility bills to “skyrocket”, that’s “prolife”? People do die of the cold, you know, of heat, poor refrigeration of their food.

And to see one wax indignant about consumerism when one has garnered hundreds of thousands of dollars of subsidies paid for by others, in order to get all the latest “environmentalist” tinker toys, it’s truly breath taking.
 
And yet, none of the predictions have come true from the global warming hysterics crowd.

And the “solutions” they propose always involve socialism, which is evil.

That’s why it is prudent to oppose it, first because it is myth, and second because it promotes evil.
There is a difference between Socialism, with a capital “S”, and Catholic social teaching. What the Church has actually condemned is Marxism.
 
There is a difference between Socialism, with a capital “S”, and Catholic social teaching. What the Church has actually condemned is Marxism.
I’m not sure it’s true that the Church condemns only Marxism. If one reads the social encyclicals, it appears the Church does not oppose governmental measures to alleviate the condition of those who cannot help themselves. But those encyclicals most definitely condemn an excess of reliance on the government, because the government has a way of demanding allegiance in deed and thought. They also stand for the principle of subsidiarity; that is, when someone needs aid it should be provided by the most proximate, capable, person or entity.

Marxism is a secular mechanistic philosophy of history, rather than a precise blueprint for economics. Certainly the Church does condemn that. But it condemns the more robust versions of socialism, just as it does total laissez-faire capitalism.
 
  1. I’m not a fan of the encyclical. It has some good points, but I feel it needlessly jumps into the global warming political argument. The portions on that are not infallible and can never be infallible, so we need not worry once this whole scam/myth is shown to be false. (This won’t stop those who will attack the Church over papal infallibility, and they will use this encyclical to attack the Church. Catholics will have to respond charitably that those portions of the encyclical were never infallible).
  2. Yes, a Pope could be a heretic who spouts leftist values. The Holy Spirit only protects the Church from teaching error on faith and morals in the official capacity of the Pope’s office. So his personal opinions are not infallible. We’ve had bad popes in the past, and yet none of them ever declared something that the whole Church must believe that was error. None of them changed Church teaching.
  3. As to your question on one world govt and other issues, I’m not sure where the Pope stands. I lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt and believe he is being given bad info, and is way too trusting of some horrific people who claim to love the poor. I don’t believe he will formally call for a one world govt, and I of course know the Holy Spirit will prevent him from teaching formal error.
Great post. 👍
 
The irony here is too rich a vein not to at least give a tiny tap.

When one vehemently supports measures designed to cause utility bills to “skyrocket”, that’s “prolife”? People do die of the cold, you know, of heat, poor refrigeration of their food.
Confucius say:
  • Turning off lights not in use, saves money, not wastes it.
  • Hypermiling saves money, not wastes it.
  • Becoming energy/resource efficient/conservative saves money, not wastes it.
  • Insulating home saves money, not wastes it.
  • Moving closer to work & schools saves money, not wastes it.
  • Reducing our overuse of heating and AC (beyond what is needed to maintain our health and basic comfort) saves money, not wastes it.
  • Keeping our cars tuned and tires inflated saves money, not wastes it.
  • Buying energy efficient appliances saves money, not wastes it.
  • Planting drought resistant plants & using less water in the garden saves money, not wastes it.
  • Watering early in the morning or in the evening & not on windy days saves money, not wastes it.
  • Avoiding throwaways (paper towels, plates, cups, diapers, etc) and using reusable products saves money, not wastes it.
  • Using both sides of paper (before recycling it) saves money, not wastes it.
  • Installing low-flow toilets and showerheads saves money, not wastes it.
  • Running multiple errands saves money, not wastes it.
  • Turning off engines in drive-thrus saves money, not wastes it.
  • Fixing water leaks saves money, not wastes it.
  • etc etc etc
Plus the Pope insists that we do those types of things to reduce our harm and killing of our brethren.

Need to read Laudato Si!
 
I’m not sure it’s true that the Church condemns only Marxism. If one reads the social encyclicals, it appears the Church does not oppose governmental measures to alleviate the condition of those who cannot help themselves. But those encyclicals most definitely condemn an excess of reliance on the government, because the government has a way of demanding allegiance in deed and thought. They also stand for the principle of subsidiarity; that is, when someone needs aid it should be provided by the most proximate, capable, person or entity.

Marxism is a secular mechanistic philosophy of history, rather than a precise blueprint for economics. Certainly the Church does condemn that. But it condemns the more robust versions of socialism, just as it does total laissez-faire capitalism.
Yes, I know. My comment was related to a previous discussion concerning Laudato Si, and its context isn’t evident in the brief comment.
 
Confucius say:
  • Turning off lights not in use, saves money, not wastes it.
  • Hypermiling saves money, not wastes it.
  • Becoming energy/resource efficient/conservative saves money, not wastes it.
  • Insulating home saves money, not wastes it.
  • Moving closer to work & schools saves money, not wastes it.
  • Reducing our overuse of heating and AC (beyond what is needed to maintain our health and basic comfort) saves money, not wastes it.
  • Keeping our cars tuned and tires inflated saves money, not wastes it.
  • Buying energy efficient appliances saves money, not wastes it.
  • Planting drought resistant plants & using less water in the garden saves money, not wastes it.
  • Watering early in the morning or in the evening & not on windy days saves money, not wastes it.
  • Avoiding throwaways (paper towels, plates, cups, diapers, etc) and using reusable products saves money, not wastes it.
  • Using both sides of paper (before recycling it) saves money, not wastes it.
  • Installing low-flow toilets and showerheads saves money, not wastes it.
  • Running multiple errands saves money, not wastes it.
  • Turning off engines in drive-thrus saves money, not wastes it.
  • Fixing water leaks saves money, not wastes it.
  • etc etc etc
Plus the Pope insists that we do those types of things to reduce our harm and killing of our brethren.

Need to read Laudato Si!
If that’s all there was to the progressive view of “necessary steps”, nobody could argue with it.

But that certainly isn’t all there is to it. Also, the progressive position is to artificially reduce the use of fossil fuels, no matter how clean, to make utility bills “skyrocket”, to tax some people more heavily in order to subsidize the “mitigation” of others with expensive devices, and to hobble the industrial capacity of the United States relative to that of other countries.

The “political MMGW movement” doesn’t care about your personal choices to use less energy. Its whole thrust is to force it artificially.
 
What is socialism but caring and sharing, making sure no one goes hungry or without health care, etc. The early Christian Church followed that principle, as do convents and monasteries.

So it is ridiculous to argue that capitalism is better than socialism or vice versa – both have their place and roles, and both need to pass the “common good” and “individual human dignity” tests…
Hello,

I will temper your words in support of socialism with the following encyclical from Pope Leo XIII: ewtn.com/library/ENCYC/L13APOST.HTM

Dan
 
If that’s all there was to the progressive view of “necessary steps”, nobody could argue with it.

But that certainly isn’t all there is to it. Also, the progressive position is to artificially reduce the use of fossil fuels, no matter how clean, to make utility bills “skyrocket”, to tax some people more heavily in order to subsidize the “mitigation” of others with expensive devices, and to hobble the industrial capacity of the United States relative to that of other countries.

The “political MMGW movement” doesn’t care about your personal choices to use less energy. Its whole thrust is to force it artificially.
👍

Absolutely correct!
 
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