Petroleum and the future of civilization

[drpmjhess]

As a country, France is pretty tiny in size … about the same size as New York State, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois combined. So their rail network has to cover a much smaller country. In addition, the eastern part of the United States is mountainous and has a lot of rivers … and getting around, over and through those make rail transportation much more difficult than in the relatively flat France…

You’re still thinking in terms of Age of Oil geography, rather than in bioregional terms. Countries can be smaller, without the need for lots of travel between them. Cascadia could be a unified country stretching from Vancouver to Eugene, Oregon; rail travel would be easy. The Eastern seabord and the Great Lakes region and much of the South could be unified countries. Southern California + Baja + western Arizona could be another, although much less densely populated. People would not have the same need to travel frequently between the east and west coats – this “need” was invented when cheap petroleum made it possible.

 

[Al_Masetti]

You’re still thinking in terms of Age of Oil geography, rather than in bioregional terms. Countries can be smaller, without the need for lots of travel between them. Cascadia could be a unified country stretching from Vancouver to Eugene, Oregon; rail travel would be easy. The Eastern seabord and the Great Lakes region and much of the South could be unified countries. Southern California + Baja + western Arizona could be another, although much less densely populated. People would not have the same need to travel frequently between the east and west coats – this “need” was invented when cheap petroleum made it possible.

Well, actually, living in apartment buildings along rail lines will become popular when “they” invent soundproof walls and ceilings and floors.

Under those conditions, folks might not object to being stacked up in vertical metropolises. In very high density corridors. But then, there will be queues for elevators … vertical transportation.

Just imagine the poetry of the queue of the megalopoli.

And really, while it is true that the car powered by gasoline was a major factor in sprawl development, it really started with coal-fired railroads … which for a hundred years started and encouraged … allowed the liberation of people from having to walk everywhere to ride a horse.

And to replace coal-fired steam railroads, there was … [drum roll please] … electrified trains from both third rails and from overhead catenary wires. Alas with diesels came the removal of a lot of the overhead wires, particularly out west.

But with alternates to petroleum, electrification of railroads may return in those places … and expand in places where electrification now exists.

Being able to travel is liberation.

What is interesting is that even now, with the internet and nearly free telephone calling plans, folks still are traveling in record numbers … by car … but also … by cruise ship (which are all unsubsidized non-government all-private sector) … by train (even with execrable [almost all government run; there are some “cruise trains”] service and amenities) … and even more so by airplane.

The next step in liberation is to increase the use of methanol as a liquid fuel. www.energyvictory.net

That will free us from the tyranny of OPEC.

And after that … nuclear fusion. We’re almost there …after a hiatus since 1986 in the research. We’re finally getting … back into the research groove … albeit e-v-e-r s-o s-l-o-w-ly.

 

[Doug50]

Petrus, I know you and others are working on a book about oil depletion. I was wondering if you could elaborate on how it’s going and when we could expect buy a copy?

 

[drpmjhess]

Petrus, I know you and others are working on a book about oil depletion. I was wondering if you could elaborate on how it’s going and when we could expect buy a copy?

Doug, I have been asked by a publisher to edit a book on theological and ethical problems at the end of the Age of Oil. It is an exciting venture: I have assembled an international and interfaith team of authors contributing essays on a wide spectrum of problems, viewed from a range of different religious, cultural and and philosophical perspectives. I have Hindus, Jews, Buddhists, Christians, Muslims, Africans, Native Americans and Pacific Islanders. The are discussing issues ranging from the ethics of uranium extraction on Indigenous lands, to sustainable agriculture in the Jewish tradition, to Christianity and the ethics of population control, to voluntary simplicity in Buddhist ethics. The book is due out in the Autumn – I will certainly let you know.

Petrus

 

[Doug50]

Doug, I have been asked by a publisher to edit a book on theological and ethical problems at the end of the Age of Oil. It is an exciting venture: I have assembled an international and interfaith team of authors contributing essays on a wide spectrum of problems, viewed from a range of different religious, cultural and and philosophical perspectives. I have Hindus, Jews, Buddhists, Christians, Muslims, Africans, Native Americans and Pacific Islanders. The are discussing issues ranging from the ethics of uranium extraction on Indigenous lands, to sustainable agriculture in the Jewish tradition, to Christianity and the ethics of population control, to voluntary simplicity in Buddhist ethics. The book is due out in the Autumn – I will certainly let you know.

Petrus

Thanks I look forward to reading it.

 

[drpmjhess]

Thanks I look forward to reading it.

Doug, another early warning sign that we are either on the eastern slope of Hubbert’s Peak or on Kunstler’s “bumpy plateau” is that gasoline now sells for $4.35/gallon in one local community here, and the Hummer Dealership is finally closing its doors. I’m glad that chapter in hedonism is ending: $65,000 vehicles that get only 12 mpg!

 

[ProVobis]

I’m not disputing any claims and do understand many have problems with high gas prices, but is it that much of a problem when those people are willing to pay more for bottled tap water (volume-wise)?

 

[Al_Masetti]

Why is Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC deliberately cutting production and, by the way, forcing prices way up ] when they could be increasing production and allowing prices to drop?

My answer to that question is that the Saudi’s are waging economic warfare on the West. Early Dhimmihood.

 

[TNT]

And whatever happened to that idea that the Iraq victory would open another 3.5-4.2m bbls / day to the markets??
Here’s a pregnant idea:
All oil from Iraq goes to the Coalition forces countries in proportion to their war expenses, at $20.00/bbl for 20 years. That outa do it.

 

[TNT]

Why is Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC deliberately cutting production and, by the way, forcing prices way up ] when they could be increasing production and allowing prices to drop?

My answer to that question is that the Saudi’s are waging economic warfare on the West. Early Dhimmihood.

Ok, I’ll fess up.
One of the major culprits in Hi Oil Prices is collapse in international value of the US Dollar in which Oil is Priced.
Chart 1.
The whole world is dumping US$ for steady/diminishing supply assets.
Silver = Chart 2. Saudi do not mine Silver, Platinum, or Gold.

 

[TNT]

For instance:
In mid 2005, 1oz of Gold would buy 8.3 bbl of Oil.
In Feb 2008, 1oz of gold will buy 9.6 bbl of Oil.
In Gold terms, aka “hard currency” the price of oil has dropped 15.6% since 2005.

Just a coincidence but the dollar has dropped by 15+% since 2005.

All this is just a rehash of 1975-79 under J Carter.
Then a New Fed Reserve czar was brought in and put the Fed Funds rate up to 18% and the Prime went to 21%. The world started scooping up 30yr Gov Bonds guaranteeing 14% interest.

That pretty much killed the party, and 5yrs later Oil was 10.50/bbl… a drop of 67% which nearly wiped the city of Houston off the economic map.

 

[BamaRider]

Dang, what a gloomy, pessimistic bunch of folks, how do some of y’all get outta bed in the morning? We’re going down the drain in handbasket! Help!

Guess what I’m gonna do. Get up and read the paper, get on one of my motorcycles, and ride 60 miles to my fav Italian bistro for lunch. For no other reason then I can.

Then I’m gonna come back home, and plan my* next *8,000 mile cross country, 25 state ride, and once AGAIN, visit this continients most beautiful places. And I’m gonna “waste” a bunch of gas in the process. I can fill one of my motorcycles up for 20 dollars (presently) and ride 300 miles, or 400 if I decide to back off from 85 mph.

Come June I’m gonna visit the Grand Canyon, Crater Lake, watch the sunset on the Pacific from Big Sur, and then head over to see Devil’s Tower check fur aliens landing.

It will be my 8th cross country ride, and I don’t care if gas is TEN dollars a gallon, I’m GOING. I didn’t retire at the age of 49 to sit around and moan and groan about gas prices, ain’t got time for that.

Along the way I’m gonna see old friends, eat cheesburgers, watch a drive in movie, and camp out in the kind of land ya see on TV. And on Saturdays I’ll find a Catholic Parish to go to Mass, shake hands with my fellow Catholics from places far away, and thank the Lord for letting me be ME.

If a recession comes I’m not partcipating in it (just as long as the State keeps sending my pension checks), so don’t put ME in the soup line just yet.

Now I know how blessed I am, the Lord has really been good to me, I was just a working guy, (firefighter) not rich, but man, I know I have it made. So I’m NOT gonna waste ONE day, no, I’m not gonna waste one HOUR worrying about stuff that ain’t gonna happen, I’m gonna leave ALL that to y’all.

 

[drpmjhess]

I’m not disputing any claims and do understand many have problems with high gas prices, but is it that much of a problem when those people are willing to pay more for bottled tap water (volume-wise)?

You’re right – water is a huge issue, particularly in some parts of the county, like the desert southwest. And bottled water is such a scam.

But where I live people are really beginning to feel the gasoline prices, particularly the tens of thousands who commute long distances daily. I’m glad the icons of conspicuous consumption – Hummers and Denalis and Yukons and Tundras – will be going the way of the dinosaur. Actually I’m glad gasoline prices are going up, and I hope they go even higher. Still, it’s alarming that they are rising so fast, and that so very little is being done to prepare for precipitous price rises around the corner – high speed rail is still mainly a dream, agriculture is still hugely oil- and gas-dependent, population is growing, suburbs expanding without provision for public transportation, etc.

 

[BamaRider]

Hess sez-

Actually I’m glad gasoline prices are going up, and I hope they go even higher.

http://bestsmileys.com/fainting/1.gif

 

[geezerbob]

Bama, I’m with you. I have two trips planned covering 11 states and about 6,000 miles - on my 250cc scooter . I estimate my gas costs for the trips at about $300-$350, well worth it for three weeks of fun, fellowship, and drinking in the beauty that God has put on this earth for us.

Trip one is to explore some of the New River Gorge in WV, then ride the entire length of the Skyline Drive/Blue Ridge Parkway from Front Royal, VA, to Cherokee, NC, with numerous side trips for sightseeing. At least three of the riders are from Alabama. If you’d like to join us, shoot me a PM for details. Trip starts Memorial Day weekend and ends whenever.

Trip two is to northern Minnesota for a rally and a short visit with a daughter and her family who live up there, with a stop in Ohio to visit friends on the return trip.

Being older than you, I’ll spring for cheap motels along the way to keep from sleeping on the ground. Don’t think the old bones would take too kindly to that, and, after working for 45 years, I think I deserve it.

 

[Doug50]

I think I’ve already mentioned the $ devaluation as a factor uping the price/bbl back in the thread.

Instead of focusing on $ focus on what supply is doing and supply has been flat since 2005. As Neil Youg, reporter for the WSJ, reported: at a 4.5% decline rate of existing feilds the world oil industry must bring into the market 4 million bbl/day. 4 million is the equivolent of Iran’s production. So just to remain flat in production the oil industry must bring into the market the equivolent of an Iran every year, year after year. CERA predicts that in 9 years the supply will be 112 million/day. To meet that supply by 2017 you have to compensate for the 4.5% decline (equivolent of Iran’s production) and then bring into the makert the extra surplus. IOW to meet the predicted 112 million by 2017 the industry must bring into the market the equvolent of 9 Saudi Arabias over the next 9 years.

 

[Al_Masetti]

You’re right – water is a huge issue, particularly in some parts of the county, like the desert southwest. And bottled water is such a scam.

.

The water issue, while sort of off topic is of great interest to me.

I studied it a lot while working in the Sahel.

About the only folks who are effective in “water management” are the Israelis … and merely mentioning them will bring down the wrath of the political correctees.

The Office of Arid Lands Studies at the University of Arizona used to have some helpful stuff … but a recent check shows they seemed to have become less practical and more theoretical. [my personal opinion]. Everyone, it seems, is into computer modeling and less into going out into the field. Even in the industry where I used to work, no one wanted to go into the field and observe and work with what was actually going on in reality. Everyone wanted to stay in their cubicles and do “computer stuff”.

I did frequent field trips and it was to the point of torture to pry people out of the cubes. And, on those rare occasions, when I did take someone outside, what they found (and learned) was always a revelation to them. Always, without exception.

They’d be working off of very expensive aerial topographic maps and aerial photos, and in the field, they would see that what’s on the maps and what’s really there doesn’t match up. AT ALL.

Or somebody would say that certain recording instruments had been installed and I would persuade the project manager to go for a little ride, … and … NOPE … they were in the totally wrong places.

Anyway, I made a field visit to Phoenix, Arizona and I was shocked at how they don’t do (to me) common sense things to manage water. I mean they are in to replacing grass with desert plants and all that. Which is good. But these desert towns still have rain, and floods and flash floods. But they don’t seem to do much to catch that water.

In many other communities, I see very little use of ground water recharge. They treat their sewage instead of using septic tanks and then they dump the treated water into the ocean. The treated water can easily be monitored for quality and be given supplemental treatment … there’s all sorts of interesting new treatment modalities … and then be allowed to percolate under controlled conditions back to the aquifer. But nope … it gets dumped. And then, without the leaching of the water from the septic tanks, they run out of ground water for drinking.

Sorry for the rant.

Maybe we should start a thread on water management. Sort of parallel to this (and other threads) on petroleum and alternate energy.

These relate to Catholicism in the sense of … are we being good stewards of the Earth. Are we being wasteful? Are we committing sins? Or are we merely being politically correct with the absence of common sense and the absence of good traditional engineering practice [including engineering economics].

Any takers for a thread on water resource management?

 

[drpmjhess]

Maybe we should start a thread on water management. Sort of parallel to this (and other threads) on petroleum and alternate energy. These relate to Catholicism in the sense of … are we being good stewards of the Earth. Are we being wasteful? Are we committing sins? Or are we merely being politically correct with the absence of common sense and the absence of good traditional engineering practice [including engineering economics].

Any takers for a thread on water resource management?

Al, I think such a thread is a great idea, and I think it is quite relevant to Catholic themes or stewardship. I’m surprised the governments of the desert Southwest have taken so long to consider the issue of water recycling and grey water catchment. I have lectured in Puebla, Mexico, on a couple of occasions, and virtually every house has a water tank on the roof for rain catchment. Similarly on the Big Island of Hawaii, where wells are useless in porous volcanic soil.

Some think the next war in the Middle East will not be over oil but over water. Four nations rely on the Nile, Egypt almost exclusively so.

Petrus

 

[Al_Masetti]

Al, I think such a thread is a great idea, and I think it is quite relevant to Catholic themes or stewardship. I’m surprised the governments of the desert Southwest have taken so long to consider the issue of water recycling and grey water catchment. I have lectured in Puebla, Mexico, on a couple of occasions, and virtually every house has a water tank on the roof for rain catchment. Similarly on the Big Island of Hawaii, where wells are useless in porous volcanic soil.

Some think the next war in the Middle East will not be over oil but over water. Four nations rely on the Nile, Egypt almost exclusively so.

Petrus

Do you want to do the honors of starting a new thread?

• Al

P.S. I got a whole bunch of juicy posts all ready!!

 

[drpmjhess]

Do you want to do the honors of starting a new thread?

• Al
  P.S. I got a whole bunch of juicy posts all ready!!
  

Thanks, Al, but I can’t today. My son’s sixth grade CYO basketball team is playing for the diocesan championship in two hours and after that I leave to deliver a sermon tomorrow out of town (at a Unitarian church!). If I can figure out how I can try t start the thread next week.

Petrus