Petroleum and the future of civilization

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Thanks, Al, but I can’t today. My son’s sixth grade CYO basketball team is playing for the diocesan championship in two hours and after that I leave to deliver a sermon tomorrow out of town (at a Unitarian church!). If I can figure out how I can try t start the thread next week.

Petrus
I took a shot at it. [What the heck.] Feel free to add an additional thread on a similar but tangential aspect of water resources.

Also, since one of your recent posts on this thread related to water, I’ll make a copy and post it to the water thread to see how it “fits”.
  • Al
 
I took a shot at it. [What the heck.] Feel free to add an additional thread on a similar but tangential aspect of water resources.

Also, since one of your recent posts on this thread related to water, I’ll make a copy and post it to the water thread to see how it “fits”.
  • Al
Thanks, Al – I’ll check it out when I get back in town tomorrow night. I heard a huge argument between two Chinese recently over the ethics of the Three Gorges Dam.
 
Thanks, Al – I’ll check it out when I get back in town tomorrow night. I heard a huge argument between two Chinese recently over the ethics of the Three Gorges Dam.
I know this is off topic, but I’m immensely proud that my sixth grader Michael’s basketball team just won the diocesan championship by one point, playing against a great team that deserved to win equally. I love the way CYO works – starting each game with a reminder that we play to create Christian gentlemen and ladies out of our kids, and then with players holding hands with each other and reciting the Our Father.

Petrus
 
I know this is off topic, but I’m immensely proud that my sixth grader Michael’s basketball team just won the diocesan championship by one point, playing against a great team that deserved to win equally. I love the way CYO works – starting each game with a reminder that we play to create Christian gentlemen and ladies out of our kids, and then with players holding hands with each other and reciting the Our Father.

Petrus
It’s pretty neat.

Out “here” in the secular world, we are constantly being “erased” of any residual effects of Christianity (and more particularly, of Catholicism.

It is so difficult … and therefore so gratifying that the CYO is still working to create Christian ladies and gentlemen.
 
How did your Unitarian sermon go?

It may not be related to petroleum, but it sure touches on the “future of civilization”!! 😉

You have really got my curiosity piqued!
 
How did your Unitarian sermon go?
[It may not be related to petroleum, but it sure touches on the “future of civilization”!! 😉
You have really got my curiosity piqued!
Thanks for asking, Al. It was a nice group of people, full of Unitarian ideas, but to a Catholic it seemed (not surprisingly) fairly empty as a service. They lit a candle in a chalice, had some “prayers” addressed to no being in particular, and sang some hymns about the universe. There was a nice sort of “prayers of the faithful” where we were asked to bring forth joys or concerns to be remembered, but without “Lord, hear our prayer” being recited after the petitions it lacked something profound. Then I spoke on the non-contradiction between religion and science (from an evidently and unapologetically Catholic perspective); there were some more hymns; and a final poem, and the candle was blown out.

Petrus
[/quote]
 
Thanks for asking, Al. It was a nice group of people, full of Unitarian ideas, but to a Catholic it seemed (not surprisingly) fairly empty as a service. They lit a candle in a chalice, had some “prayers” addressed to no being in particular, and sang some hymns about the universe. There was a nice sort of “prayers of the faithful” where we were asked to bring forth joys or concerns to be remembered, but without “Lord, hear our prayer” being recited after the petitions it lacked something profound. Then I spoke on the non-contradiction between religion and science (from an evidently and unapologetically Catholic perspective); there were some more hymns; and a final poem, and the candle was blown out.

Petrus
Petrus, you have NO IDEA how much of a positive impression you made on those good folks at the Unitarian church. Despite the United States being the great melting pot, most folks stay pretty close to their own cultural circles.

You may have been the ONLY TIME that anyone has actually met and talked with a Catholic [even though they may work with folks who are Catholic] … and I’m sure that they were shocked, SHOCKED to see that you did not have horns!!!

For many years, my wife worked as the secretary for a Methodist church. She was the ONLY Catholic they knew … and they couldn’t believe how nice she was. No horns. It really rattled them; they could not reconcile her with their core beliefs of how “evil” the Catholic Church is.

The basic problem is, as is being discussed on another thread, that folks just lack knowledge of Catholicism.

Getting WAY off topic …😛

Getting back on topic, of petroleum, have you been to any of those steam railroad locomotive museums? Incredible fun for kids of all ages … AND someday (soon???) we may need to get back to the coal-burning technology of yesteryear … if the environmentalists allow it.
  • I don’t know what it is about steam that fascinates everybody so much … so don’t throw away your old steam design manuals. :rotfl:*
 
Petrus, you have NO IDEA how much of a positive impression you made on those good folks at the Unitarian church.

Getting WAY off topic…😛
Al,
(1) I usually find it is fundamentalist Protestants who are most bigoted against Catholics; I even have in-aws who have told me I’m not Christian, I’m Catholic. These unitarians are at the opposite end of the spectrum, so liberal in belief that anything goes, and hence you seem to end up with nothing at all of substance. One guy came up to me who said he was an ex-Catholic (I hate the term “recovering Catholic”!). I just wonder what someone raised Catholic derives from a non-theistic church.

(2) My boys and I love steam railways, and visit them when we are on holiday, if possible. (A few years ago we visited the Sugar Pine railroad south of Yosemite National Park.) I don’t know much about steam technology efficiency compared with other post-petroleum technologies for the future. If there were a way to make coal-to-rail more efficient, that would provide us with a good part of a safety net.

(3) Craig Venter of Celera Genomics is apparently trying to formulate the first artificial life. While this is fraught with ethical issues, the article I read suggested several applications to environmental problems. One would be invent a life form that metabolizes CO2 to help reduce greenhouse gases. How on earth you could release this into the atmosphere and then control it is beyond me. Another goal is to invent a life form that would convert solar energy into liquid fuel without the intermediate stages fossil fuels had to pass through.

Petrus**
 
Ok, I’ll fess up.
One of the major culprits in Hi Oil Prices is collapse in international value of the US Dollar in which Oil is Priced.
Chart 1.
The whole world is dumping US$ for steady/diminishing supply assets.
Silver = Chart 2. Saudi do not mine Silver, Platinum, or Gold.
TNT. how much of the current run-up in gasoline prices has to do with the collapse of the dollar (as you suggest) and howm much with constricting supply? Can we estimate this?

One of my concerns is the effects higher gasoline prices are having on the service sector. Even if the people in my community are better-off-than-average, the people who run the video rental stores and the dry cleaners and the hair cutting salons and who bag groceries are really feeling the pinch driving in from outlying districts. I suppose we will adjust, but at what cost of disruption?
 
Oops!
  1. HUGE oil discoveries in North Dakota. $18 trillion worth.
  2. Possible huge new natural gas discoveries in … PENNSYLVANIA???
Hmmmm.
 
Oops!
  1. HUGE oil discoveries in North Dakota. $18 trillion worth.
  2. Possible huge new natural gas discoveries in … PENNSYLVANIA???
Hmmmm.
Al, this would be good if true. How long would the fields take to come on line, and how long would the supply last? Gasoline prices are having some serious implications for transportation and food delivery in my neck of the woods…

Anything happening in water?

Petrus
 
  1. HUGE oil discoveries in North Dakota. $18 trillion worth.
  1. Possible huge new natural gas discoveries in … PENNSYLVANIA???
pennsylvania, that’s cool. can you give us a link? anything to move exploration jobs out of houston is good.

don’t forget about alaska. total bids in the chukchi sea lease sale this past february totalled nearly 3 billion. there’s some big structures out there, big potential but risky. just no pipe line… yet.
 
pennsylvania, that’s cool. can you give us a link? anything to move exploration jobs out of houston is good.

don’t forget about alaska. total bids in the chukchi sea lease sale this past february totalled nearly 3 billion. there’s some big structures out there, big potential but risky. just no pipe line… yet.
I will try to find a link. The story was on page A2 of today’s (Wednesday 2 April 2008) Wall Street Journal. It’s a paid site, I think. But I’ll try to see if there’s a free link somewhere. The headline is “Gas Producers Rush to Pennsylvania”. By-line is Russell Gold.
 
pennsylvania, that’s cool. can you give us a link? anything to move exploration jobs out of houston is good.

don’t forget about alaska. total bids in the chukchi sea lease sale this past february totalled nearly 3 billion. there’s some big structures out there, big potential but risky. just no pipe line… yet.
Why do we panic? We’ve read the book.We know the ending. We pray, we live, we adapt, and by Gods good Grace, we survive.🤷
 
online.wsj.com/article/SB120709326316581793.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

The above link is to a paid article, so I copied and pasted it here, but shortened it to fit:

Gas Producers Rush to Pennsylvania
Promising Results
For Wells There
Spur Investment
By RUSSELL GOLD
April 2, 2008; Page A2
PITTSBURGH – Natural-gas producers are swarming into Pennsylvania to chase what many are betting could be the next big thing: a thick wedge of gas-bearing rock called the Marcellus Shale.

The recent surge in interest was triggered by disclosures in the fall from producer Range Resources Corp. of Fort Worth, Texas, that it had drilled a well there producing more than three million cubic feet of natural gas a day, proving that Marcellus Shale wells can be profitable. Since then, Range has reported wells that produce even more gas.

PENNSYLVANIA PLAY

• Rising Interest: Natural-gas producers are swarming to the state to drill in a potentially hot production area.
• Difficult Area: Lack of equipment and manpower has impeded some efforts.
• The Risk: The area hasn’t yet shown that producers will find major gas deposits.
The result is a land rush unmatched anywhere else in North America as companies try to snap up drilling acreage on a giant swath of rock stretching from West Virginia across Pennsylvania to the northeast corner of the state, 90 miles from New York City.

Range Resources plans to spend $426 million in Appalachia this year. Other out-of-state companies, such as EOG Resources Inc., Chesapeake Energy Corp. and Anadarko Petroleum Corp., have either begun drilling or are planning to drill wells targeting the Marcellus Shale.

Estimates of the Marcellus Shale’s supplies vary widely. In 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated there may be 1.9 trillion cubic feet. Earlier this year, Terry Engelder, a Pennsylvania State University geosciences professor, made what he called a conservative estimate of 168 trillion cubic feet. His estimate has yet to be confirmed. By comparison, the U.S. consumed 23.05 trillion cubic feet last year, according to the Energy Information Administration, or about 63.2 billion cubic feet a day.

Still, there have been relatively few completed Marcellus Shale wells, and it isn’t clear whether the rock will produce prolific wells across the state or only in certain pockets. Companies could be spending a lot of money leasing acres and drilling wells in counties where there won’t be enough gas for the wells to offer a reasonable return.

Information about the potential of the Marcellus gas field has emerged slowly because of Pennsylvania rules that allow companies to keep well-production data and drilling logs confidential for five years, compared with about 60 days in Texas. While Range has told Wall Street analysts about its wells, it hasn’t disclosed where the wells are.

“Why would we educate anybody else?” says Ray Walker, Range’s head of Appalachian shale production. The best way to protect shareholders, he says, “is to keep information close at hand.” In the fall, after Range personnel caught someone snooping around their wellhead reading the production meter, Mr. Walker padlocked covers on well-production meters.

The technique for drilling into shale rock to harvest natural gas was pioneered outside Fort Worth about six years ago. Since then, the Texas Barnett Shale has gone from obscurity to the most prolific domestic gas field in the continental U.S. That one field produces about 3.5 billion cubic feet a day, or about eight times more than all of Pennsylvania in 2006, which is the latest data available.

Gas producers hope they can do the same for the Marcellus, but development in Pennsylvania has been slowed by a lack of equipment. Drilling rigs capable of penetrating deep into the complex rock formations needed to be imported from Texas, Wyoming and other active energy regions. Experienced crews capable of fracturing the dense shale in order to coax out the gas also had to be brought in.

Pennsylvania has had an oil and gas industry for more than a century, but it’s been dominated by small companies that tend to drill low-cost, low-risk wells that produce a fraction of the gas that companies believe they can coax from a Marcellus Shale well. But these small, local companies long ago locked up most of the drillable acreage.

To gain access, out-of-state companies are opening up their checkbooks to sign deals with local companies sitting on large swathes of acreage. “We’ve never seen this kind of money around here,” says Terry Jacobs, president of family-owned Penneco Oil Co. He cut a deal last year to allow Range to drill wells on leases he holds.

It isn’t uncommon to find drilling crews filled with Texans and Oklahomans. On a recent morning, Jared Griffith, a third-generation Texas oil hand, sat with his crew inside an oil-field office trailer. Almost all were Texans. “I never thought I’d be north of the Mason-Dixon line,” says Mr. Griffith, an operations manager for Frac Tech Services Ltd., a drilling-services firm based in Cisco, Texas.

Leasing prices for land still available for drilling has skyrocketed along with the out-of-state influx. Near Williamsport, Pa., a drilling lease that fetched $5 an acre in 2003 now can fetch $2,000 an acre, local residents say. Those kind of prices are “unheard of in our part of the world,” says Rich Weber, president of Atlas Energy Resources LLC, based in Moon Township, Pa.

Range’s Mr. Walker has worked to smooth over relations with local landowners. The company contributed $35,000 so Hickory, Pa., could buy a bronze statue of a farmer to commemorate the region’s agricultural history. At last year’s local Washington County Youth Livestock Show, Range bought the champion steer for $12,285. “I thought it was cheap,” Mr. Walker says.
 
Al, I wonder what became of Doug50. He might like this article.
Some skeptics might offer that Pennsylvania natural gas is not yet a given proven absolute and is probably a will o’the wisp.

Just another mythical ball of fire in a swamp.
 
Some skeptics might offer that Pennsylvania natural gas is not yet a given proven absolute and is probably a will o’the wisp.

Just another mythical ball of fire in a swamp.
Al, the Bakken Shale in ND, Montana, and Candada is not a new discovery. It’s been know about since at least the 1950’s. The formation is 2 miles deep. The really big advantage the Bakken has is that its API gavity is a 40 to 45 sweet oil. That means it’s low sulfer and has the liquid consistency similar to deseal. Lower gavity oils are thicker and don’t flow as well. I’ve read estimates of the Bakken having 115 billion bbls of oil to as high as 400 billion. It makes more sense to try and develope this shale over some thing like Colorado’s oil shale (which isn’t even oil at all) because the Bakken has already been cooked by the earth’s heat to a fine grade petroleum. So what’s the problem? If this shale has been know since the 50’s why hasn’t it been exploited? The down fall of the Bakken is that it has a very low permiability and a very low porosity. This shale is also know to be water sensitive, meaning it will absorb water and swell up to futher reduce permiability. Technology learned from the Barnett Shale is what’s beening looked at to produce from these other Shale plays. We know you won’t open it (and I now understand why) but here’s a blogger who flows Bakken news bakkenshale.blogspot.com/ I’ll quote part of this one: bakkenshale.blogspot.com/2007/10/time-for-reality-rant.html
You know, I get just a little tired of companies trolling for investors and general media reports that keep bringing up the hundreds of billions of barrels that supposedly exist in the Bakken everytime the formation is mentioned. My question to them is “so what?” Instead, why not tell me what percentage of that figure is recoverable, as isn’t that what’s really important? For the ignorant, these reports make it sounds like all that previously unknown oil is just waiting down there for whomever wants to put a straw into this vast underground pool like Spindletop and then just let it flow. That is hardly the case.

These enormous estimates are generated by calculating the oil in place on a section basis times the areal extent of the Bakken. Most companies are estimating about 3-5 MM bbls/section, which is open to debate, but is certainly reasonable. Now the tricky part comes in calculating what percentage of that amount is recoverable. A ten percent recovery rate would yield between 300-500K bbls/section. This certainly appears to be a reasonable rate in areas of exceptional formation quality, such as in the Parshall area, although the jury is still out as to the long term producibility of those wells. But again, it is certainly not an unreasonable calculation for that area based on the scant production history that exists. In other areas currently being developed with less favorable geology, perhaps half that, or five percent, is a reasonable recovery rate, as 300K is an often used estimate for 1280 acre units. However, in some fringe areas, the recovery rate with current technology is only a fraction of one percent, and a number of those wells will be hard pressed to ever make 100K, or even 50K, even after twenty years of production.
 
But you’re focused on the shale gas in pennsylvania. Here’s how these wells are drilled (I’d give you a link but you won’t open it, I now believe I understand why) dteenergy.com/businesses/images/gasDrilling.jpg

and I am pretty sure I posted a link like this one earilier in this thread about shale gas formation around the US. I guess you didn’t oper that one either. Just like the Bakken has been know since the 50’s, these formations are not new discoveries.
pe.tamu.edu/gpri-new/home/BrineDesal/Images/UnconvenFig12.jpg
The company we sold our drilling rigs to is moving into the Fayetteville Shale to do service work there too.

Think of the problem this way Al with these unconventional plays: First off, if the industry is looking to exploit these plays then it follows that the convention (read cheap) stuff is about gone. These unconvetional wells are far more expensive to drill and produce which means you, Al, and everyone else needs to get use to paying alot more for their oil/gas then you’ve been use to. Truckers are beginning to complain about fuel costs at the pump being $4+. They ain’t seen nutt’n yet. T Boone Pickens’ BP Capital is hedging oil to fall to $85 this year but then to climb up to as high as $150 next year. don’t worry the link is only aCNBC news broadcast
youtube.com/watch?v=vt9LVCxfIDs
247wallst.com/2008/02/t-boone-pickens.html
T. Boone Pickens Calling For An Oil Pullback (CLNE, OIH)
If there is one public oil and energy sage that the markets like to listen to, you need to look no further than T. Boone Pickens. He’s been a bull all the way up. In fact, last year he called for “$80 oil before he’s 80” and after that hurdle was reached he laid out the case for $100 oil.
This morning he was just on CNBC with his new outlook for oil and energy prices. This morning Pickens said he thinks oil is going to back off maybe $10 to $15 in Q2 but prices will come back up in the second half of the year.
He also noted that natural gas was too high and when asked if he was short natural gas he responded, “Well, Yeah.” He did say that natural gas will become a transportation fuel, and you can see his Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) that is positioned to run natural gas for autos. He also noted about the need to clean up coal. He also noted that wind and solar are going to have to be used, and we need to get on board with alternative energy. While Pickens is calling for a pullback here, he said that if we do not get on the alternative energy bandwagon and if we don’t have a global recession we could be sitting on $150 oil in two-years.
Putting it another way: Let’s say both you and I have $10 million each stashed away. The difference is mine is conventional and yours unconventional. I can draw mine out at a rate of 100K per year (neither of us will ever be able to draw the full 100%) while you can only draw yours out at 10-20K per year. And it cost you more per $ then I to exract. Are we both equally rich? I could live on 100K per year. Could you live on 10-20K per year with your current lifestyle with its higher extraction costs? Or would you have to change your lifestyle?
 
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