Poll: Obama leads grow in Ohio, Fla

[_Abyssinia]

New poll: Romney overtakes Obama on terrorism

The foreign-policy results of the new Bloomberg National Poll

haven’t gotten much attention yet, but the survey contains some bad news for the Obama campaign. According to the poll, Mitt Romney has a 48-42 advantage over Barack Obama on the question of which candidate would be tougher on terrorism. Romney, in other words, has encroached on one of Obama’s signature strengths.

What makes this result so surprising is that the president has consistently trounced Romney when it comes to counterterrorism. A Fox News poll earlier this month found that 49 percent of respondents trusted Obama to do a better job than Romney in protecting the United States from terrorist attacks, compared with 41 percent who put their faith in the Republican candidate. The president had a 51-40 advantage on handling terrorism in an ABC News/Washington Post poll around the same time, and a 50-35 edge on carrying out the war on terror in an Ipsos/Reuters poll in August. The Democrats’ rare national-security muscle was on full display at their convention, where speakers boasted about the administration’s successful raid against Osama bin Laden and targeted killings of al Qaeda leaders.

blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/09/27/new_poll_romney_overtakes_obama_on_terrorism

 

[Luigi_Daniele]

27Sep2010: Obama -3 (48 to 51) on the economy. Among committed voters: -14

Midterm landslide

27Sep2012: Obama -3. C.V.: -14

Draw your own conclusions

 

[Marie5890]

In '08, Rassumsenn and PEW were tied for most accurate polls

newsmax.com/Newsfront/pew-rasmussen-most-accurate/2012/09/11/id/451377

 

[ringil]

Ringil, maybe you not living in a swing state is why you’re not polled as a liberal. You’re always in those blue states from what I’ve been able to gather and ya got so many liberals around ya anyway. Me OTOH? Always have been in a swing state somewhere.

No, no. I live in NY now so it’s blue. Strangely we have Obama commercials.

Before that we lived in NC- which went blue last time- excellent. NC is typically red. That was in 08 and I saw my favorite political commercial ever by McCain. It was a stylized deal and had Obama before a throng of dark figures and as the camera panned back a massive red light was above him, giving the distinct vision of the Dark Lord in Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings. I am a HUGE Tolkien nerd and it was pretty awesome!

Before that we lived in MA, so pretty darn blue. This was during Romney and his great accomplishment in healthcare.

And I grew up in VA. Did that go Blue last time? In any case- it’s generally red.

 

[ringil]

How in the last few months of the campaign has Mitt tried to placate the Tea Party?

I believe that Romney has, like every politician ever, began to appeal to the more moderate folks on his side following the primaries- hoping to catch a few independents.

Presidential politicians (non-encumbants) who want to actually win take similar global strategies in these things.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

27Sep2010: Obama -3 (48 to 51) on the economy. Among committed voters: -14

Midterm landslide

27Sep2012: Obama -3. C.V.: -14

Draw your own conclusions

I’ve drawn my conclusions and begun praying for them to come true!

 

[ringil]

So many things can effect polls,

Yeah, like one candidate losing to another in terms of votes.

 

[Borealis]

Obama is still campaigning in these battleground states because he doesn’t want his lead to slip away. That’s why they’re called battleground states: they are volatile. These are the states that determine the outcome of the election because of their electoral votes. Where else should Obama campaign: Utah or Texas, where he cannot win; New York or California, where he is comfortably ahead? Unfortunately this is our political system: the electoral college decides the winner rather than the popular vote.

10-12 points in Ohio and Florida isn’t ‘comfortably ahead?’ The media is already announcing that the race is over; Romney can’t possibly make up the numbers he needs by peeling off Obama supporters in the time remaining.

Obama shows on a daily basis that he only wants the job of President; he doesn’t want to actually do the job. More and more people are recognizing this, and the poll numbers notwithstanding, Romney is well within striking distance in these states, if he isn’t already ahead.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

10-12 points in Ohio and Florida isn’t ‘comfortably ahead?’ The media is already announcing that the race is over; Romney can’t possibly make up the numbers he needs by peeling off Obama supporters in the time remaining.

Obama shows on a daily basis that he only wants the job of President; he doesn’t want to actually do the job. More and more people are recognizing this, and the poll numbers notwithstanding, Romney is well within striking distance in these states, if he isn’t already ahead.

You nailed it, Borealis.

 

[CMatt25]

What are you even talking about? You always go on with vagaries about Mitt catering to the Tea party, and not moving to the middle (the implication being Obama has somehow run as a moderate). but no one ever knows what you even mean.

How in the last few months of the campaign has Mitt tried to placate the Tea Party? You just repeat things from democratic websites, but without any context.

Here’s an example of what I mean. He tells audiences he will repeal Obamacare on day one. Then has more recently said oh he didn’t mean all of Obamacare. Then in an interview lavishes praise upon himself for caring about the sick because of Romneycare. Then goes back out to an audience and trashes Obamacare. That might be all in a matter of hrs. So I apologize. He only caters to the Tea Party before their audiences and then after he has said something favorable about Obamacare and Romneycare.

 

[Rich_Olszewski]

Obama shows on a daily basis that he only wants the job of President; he doesn’t want to actually do the job.

If that’s true, does it mean that the President is unelectable?

 

[CMatt25]

1. when he defended his 47% comment
2. every time he promises to abolish Obamacare
3. when he accused Obama of taking the work requirement out of welfare (still waiting for the evidence on that one)
4. in his selection of Paul Ryan for VP
   …If I think harder, I’ll likely find more examples.

Thanks Seekerz for your additional ones. I hadn’t seen you had already responded before I replied to HeMan. It’s been so obvious to me how he’s catered to them I was just going to bother limiting my response to one example, your #2. Thanks again.

 

[He_Man]

1. when he defended his 47% comment
2. every time he promises to abolish Obamacare
3. when he accused Obama of taking the work requirement out of welfare (still waiting for the evidence on that one)
4. in his selection of Paul Ryan for VP
   …If I think harder, I’ll likely find more examples.

1. Any candidate is going to defend their comments when they are on camera? That is hardly an appeal to anyone but his own campaign. That’s like saying Obama defense of deficit is an appeal to liberal progressives. No, its a defense of his campaign for the next election.
2. Because Obamacare is vastly unpopular with just the Tea Party? It’s unpopular nation-wide. Besides that, he was the one Republican who mentioned that in every debate going all the way back. That is hardly a shift in his stance.
3. I’ve seen fact checkers claim either could claim truth on that comment. regardless, how is that an appeal to the Tea Party? Sounds like Mitt’s stance that he has had in forever.
4. The closest possibility, but one could easily argue he chose Ryan for swing-state appeal, and because Ryan is a great fiscal choice in his mind.

None of these are the drastic, recent shifts to favor the Tea Party we keep hearing about.

 

[CMatt25]

There is always this argument that you should trust Rasmussen the most because they were most accurate in 2008. Well, Rasmussen was initially deemed to be tied in accuracy with Pew (which now in 2012 has the President up by 8 points) and in a later analysis to be 9th in accuracy. Democracy Corps, Foxnews/Opinion Dynamic, CNN/Opinion Research, and Ipsos/McClatchy all predicted an accurate seven point spread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports#2008

Also, in 2010 Rasmussen performed poorly:

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Al, come on now. You surely know better. If the argument works by just focusing on 2008 it works for them.

 

[He_Man]

I believe that Romney has, like every politician ever, began to appeal to the more moderate folks on his side following the primaries- hoping to catch a few independents.

Presidential politicians (non-encumbants) who want to actually win take similar global strategies in these things.

I don’t disagree with that, but a swing to the right in recent months I have not seen. The base will turn out against Obama, if not for Romney. He needs the independents, not just the Tea Party.

 

[CMatt25]

No, no. I live in NY now so it’s blue. Strangely we have Obama commercials.

Before that we lived in NC- which went blue last time- excellent. NC is typically red. That was in 08 and I saw my favorite political commercial ever by McCain. It was a stylized deal and had Obama before a throng of dark figures and as the camera panned back a massive red light was above him, giving the distinct vision of the Dark Lord in Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings. I am a HUGE Tolkien nerd and it was pretty awesome!

Before that we lived in MA, so pretty darn blue. This was during Romney and his great accomplishment in healthcare.

And I grew up in VA. Did that go Blue last time? In any case- it’s generally red.

Do you have Romney commercials too? Ok ok I gotcha Ringil. I had only remembered you mentioning MA and NY. Yep VA went blue. Might even stay blue this time. But yes like NC had been typically red.

 

[buffalo]

Thanks Seekerz for your additional ones. I hadn’t seen you had already responded before I replied to HeMan. It’s been so obvious to me how he’s catered to them I was just going to bother limiting my response to one example, your #2. Thanks again.

Candidates should understand the electorate. Does anyone think the lady in the Obamaphone video is going to vote for Romney? He knows it, you know it and so does everyone one else. He is not going to convince this lady and others like her no matter what. He has to focus on the other 53%.

 

[seekerz]

Thanks Seekerz for your additional ones. I hadn’t seen you had already responded before I replied to HeMan. It’s been so obvious to me how he’s catered to them I was just going to bother limiting my response to one example, your #2. Thanks again.

U R most welcome!

 

[Dawnia]

Democrats rarely need to show up in Iowa after the Iowa cauci, since they have owned the state in the past few elections. If Obama has this so completely in the bag, then why is he still fighting so hard for states he supposedly has wrapped up?

Not so. Iowa went Dem in 08, Rep in 04, Dem 00. In the last 10 elections Iowa went Red 5 times & Blue 5 times. It’s anyone’s game at this point.

 

[ringil]

U R most welcome!

Seekers, don’t tell me you speak Bingo!!! NO!!!