Poll: Obama leads grow in Ohio, Fla

[Rich_Olszewski]

Let me turn this around: show me (you, the MSM, even some conservatives) where Romney isn’t conservative.

Funny, but any number of Republicans are disappointed with their nominee because he is, by their lights, no conservative at all.

Can’t help you otherwise, as one can’t prove a negative.

 

[TarkanAttila]

I have one thing to say about this:

OBAMAPHONE

 

[Marie5890]

If the comparison of Obama vs Romney is Gore Vs Bush, then the idea that Romney is going to win and win big doesnt make sense.

Gore vs Bush was extremely close and we all know that, going to the Supreme Court.

How have the polling models changed, if at, in over a decade?

I just look at 12 years as a very long time to make a comparison.

 

[Luigi_Daniele]

If the comparison of Obama vs Romney is Gore Vs Bush, then the idea that Romney is going to win and win big doesnt make sense.

Gore vs Bush was extremely close and we all know that, going to the Supreme Court.

How have the polling models changed, if at, in over a decade?

I just look at 12 years as a very long time to make a comparison.

Gore was running as Clinton’s third term. The economy was in much, much better shape.
Romney is a better orator than Bush.

 

[Marie5890]

Gore was running as Clinton’s third term. The economy was in much, much better shape.
Romney is a better orator than Bush.

Great points…

All the more reasons (plus Nadar as 3rd party) that I hesitate to compare the two races.

How much do you expect Romney to win by?

 

[Luigi_Daniele]

Great points…

All the more reasons (plus Nadar as 3rd party) that I hesitate to compare the two races.

How much do you expect Romney to win by?

53-46-1

In the neighborhood of 300 Electoral Votes

 

[_Abyssinia]

They actually look even better for Gore than for Obama, TBH.

Show of hands, please:

A fresh, unknown Obama won FL and OH by only 2% or so. I believe VA and NC were similar. This was against the (co) worst Rep candidate in years. (Timidly pro-life. Almost non existant tax cut proposal. Uncomfortable with the Bush tax cuts)

Who thinks that an Obama who now has a dismal record will do better against a real conservative?

Me, either.

John McCain was far from exciting and he only lost by 2% in FL and OH - great point, and then was when demcorats had a big voter registration advantage

 

[_Abyssinia]

Youth Engagement Falls; Registration Also Declines

people-press.org/2012/09/28/youth-engagement-falls-registration-also-declines

Number-Cruncher on Polls’ History of Underestimating the GOP

nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/328805/number-cruncher-polls-history-underestimating-gop

 

[Luigi_Daniele]

John McCain was far from exciting and he only lost by 2% in FL and OH - good point. and then was when demcorats had a big voter registration advantage

Exactly

 

[_Abyssinia]

Exactly

Plus Obama had won the debates by double digits according to Gallup yet only won Ohio and Florida by a small margin. Makes you wonder what what happen if Romney came out on top after the debates

 

[Luigi_Daniele]

Plus Obama had won the debates by double digits according to Gallup yet only won Ohio and Florida by a small margin. Makes you wonder what what happen if Romney came out on top after the debates

IMHO, against the greatest orator in the history of mankind, if Romney doesn’t
take off all his clothes on stage, he will have “won” the debates.

 

[ringil]

Romney and Obama Virtually Tied in Virginia

thecompetentconservative.com/romney-and-obama-virtually-tied-in-virginia

It’s OH and FL that matter and Romney is very behind in both.

A Candidate has never won without winning OH and mitt is 10 points behind.

 

[ringil]

Al Gore was winning in September 16 2000 according to the polls

The Newsweek Poll: Bush Makes No Inroads

iun.edu/~mathiho/mathpol/fall00/newsweek-poll.h

To proclaim somebody is winning according to the polls now is ridiclous and Chris Wallace show know better as a news presenter he should know the historical record of polls better than most people

Rasmussen is showing Romney and Obama with in the margin of error because it is using a mix of 2004 and 2008 turn out. Most if not all of the others are using a 2008 turn out model when approval rating among key 2008 demographics thst won the Obama election is way down in swing states, like with youth and Jewish vote. If a poll, like NBC is claming the turn out will be higher in 2012 than it was in 2012 that has to be looked at sceptically but there is no evidence to suggest that is the registering advantage in Ohio. Democrat registration is down from what it was in 2008 in Ohio

You talk percentages but what about the electoral map. You know how we choose who wins?

 

[Tampa_Dave]

It’s OH and FL that matter and Romney is very behind in both.

A Candidate has never won without winning OH and mitt is 10 points behind.

That is if you trust the poll(s) you cite. We have heard about the over representation of Democrats in recent polling. We have also seen reports on significant declines in Democrat voter registrations. Debate performances will factor in November voting as well. I am not throwing in the towel on Governor Romney.

 

[ringil]

Debate performances will factor in November voting as well. I am not throwing in the towel on Governor Romney.

The funny thing about the debates is NO MATTER how they play out, Conservatives will say that Romney won them.

 

[rlg94086]

That is if you trust the poll(s) you cite. We have heard about the over representation of Democrats in recent polling. We have also seen reports on significant declines in Democrat voter registrations. Debate performances will factor in November voting as well. I am not throwing in the towel on Governor Romney.

We’ve also seen big differences between polls and election results in the past. Someone posted that Carter was leading Reagan by a wider margin at this time in 1979…we all know how that turned out.

 

[Al_Moritz]

Here is the editor-in-chief of Gallup (Polls) on

The Recurring – and Misleading – Focus on Party Identification

pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/09/the-recurring-and-misleading-focus-on.html

 

[_Abyssinia]

It’s OH and FL that matter and Romney is very behind in both.

A Candidate has never won without winning OH and mitt is 10 points behind.

Romney is behind in polls which oversample democrats to a higher turn out than came out in 2008. I do not trust polls which oversample so heavily as the democrat registration is down in Ohio along with other swing states

Obama has spent millions on polling, if he was really up 10 points I do not think he would be campaigning in Ohio as much as he is

Romney could win with out Ohio and Virginia, by winning all the states McCain won and New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado. All states that he with in the margin on Rasmussen

 

[ringil]

Obama has spent millions on polling, if he was really up 10 points I do not think he would be campaigning in Ohio as much as he is

Well, that’s clearly not logical at all.

So if you don’t mind me asking: Do you personally believe that Romney will win?

 

[_Abyssinia]

Well, that’s clearly not logical at all.

So if you don’t mind me asking: Do you personally believe that Romney will win?

Why is it not logical? Obama campaign has spent $19.9 million on polling

Let me predict that if I say yes will say you will save my message so if November 6th Obama wins you can post it and say I was wrong

I think Romney is a in a better position to win, but in 39 days anything can happen, and the debates will be important, they could swing the election