Polls may not be right, but this Professor has been spot on since 1984

[RidgeSprinter]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/07/us/allan-lichtman-trump-biden-2020-trnd/index.html

 

[Regular_Atheist]

It’s worth mentioning that in 2000, Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win the election. Although Gore won the popular vote, he ultimately lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the Supreme Court ruled to stop the recount for Florida’s electoral votes.

He’s been right for every election since 1984, except when he hasn’t.

 

[Ridgerunner]

There are lots of people who have predicted everything right for X number of years.

But I’ll say this. If Trump loses, we’re in for the worst recession since 1929, religious persecution, public funding of abortion, “hate speech” prosecutions of dissent and total weaponization of the powers of government against dissent. But Walmart stock will go up because we’ll buy everything from China again.

We’ll be a richer version of Venezuela.

 

[Regular_Atheist]

If Trump loses, we’re in for the worst recession since 1929

There’s going to be a terrible recession regardless of who wins. Nothing can prevent that.

 

[Ridgerunner]

There’s going to be a terrible recession regardless of who wins. Nothing can prevent that.

Not so. Once we start bringing jobs back home, we’ll see a surging economy. Selling commodities and buying manufactured goods, which is what we have been doing prior to Trump, is not a formula for success.

 

[RidgeSprinter]

If Trump loses, we’re in for the worst recession since 1929

You mean we are not in a recession already?

 

[Regular_Atheist]

Once we start bringing jobs back home

I don’t see how America can ever compete with the rate of profit that countries like China can offer. It probably isn’t possible to “bring those jobs back.”

 

[Ridgerunner]

Where did I say America needed to compete with slave labor? We don’t.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Depends on what you look at.

 

[Dr_Meinheimer]

The polls are already tightening from a month ago. Anyone prognosticating about an election in 3 months between an incumbent who has to battle a once in a lifetime pandemic and a hostile press, and a challenger who can’t stop offending his constituents and seems to be losing his mind more and more by the week is wasting their time. We haven’t even seen a Biden running mate or any debates.

I would not be surprised by either outcome.

 

[Dr_Meinheimer]

So, the logic here is that 160,000 Americans are dead and the economy is in the worst recession since the Great Depression if not worse and you think that a strong argument to support Trump is that you can imagine things getting worse?

Your hyperbole is silly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/us-officially-in-a-recession-but-its-different-than-2008.html

And yes, that’s how bad progressives and a senile old man as President can be. They can take a bad situation and somehow make it even worse.

 

[Ridgerunner]

First of all we’re not in the worst recession since the Great Depression. The deaths are tragic, but Trump did not cause them.

It’s not my imagination that things would get worse with Biden. He has already said he will get the Hyde Amendment repealed, re-impose the HHS Mandate requiring the Little Sisters of the Poor and other religious groups to provide abortifacients, publicly fund abortions. He has promised to raise taxes. He has promised open borders, which will make labor cheaper. And he got $1.5 billion from China invested with his son. His “green energy” program will eliminate 6 million jobs in the oil and gas industry and make America dependent on foreign sources again.

That’s not imagination.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Yes, Trump has shown us how an incompetent President can take a bad situation and make it worse.

Until Covid, the economy was the best it has ever been. And we’re still not in any new Democrat wars.

 

[Cruciferi]

Once we start bringing jobs back home

Yeah, I’m still waiting. Haven’t seen much action from either side.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I can’t remember them all, but I have definitely seen some.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Well, GDP has shrunk by 32% quarter on quarter, so that is the worst drop since WW2?

Short term thing. Also the most dramatic upswing. Not a recession, even though Democrats want it that way.

Tell us how the Democrat Covid plan would have worked better.

South Korea was prepared in advance because of the SARS and MERS infections. The U.S., throughout the eight years of the Obama administration, did not prepare. But Covid is not gone. Not even from South Korea. It will smolder for years.

Wow, a lot of made up stuff here.

No. He said all of it. Here’s one of them.

Joe Biden plans to end contraception exemption for Little Sisters of the Poor | Catholic News Agency

Here he is on taxes:

Biden’s record-setting tax increases will take your money — and your job

Like the two Iraq Wars (oops)…or Afghanistan (oops)?

The last war was Democrat (Libya) and the last uptick (Af/Pak) was too. Bush was big on war too. Never said he wasn’t.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Well, we certainly hope so, but the poor response to COVID by Trump will probably drag this out quite a bit.

What did the Dems propose that he didn’t do?

Competent governance.

Not an answer.

Trump was President for more than three years before COVID hit the US, so you can’t blame Obama for Trump’s failures.

Supposedly there was a pandemic plan in place with the proper supplies. Obama sold off the supplies and never implemented the plan. When Trump took office all of that was gone and had to be rebuilt from scratch. South Korea kept its plan up to date. You wanted to know why So Ko had a better (initial) result. That’s why.

First, Little Sisters: it seems that Biden did not say he would violate the Supreme Court decision which supported the Little Sisters, so I am not seeing a problem.

The Supreme Court order is temporary and only allows Trump’s suspension to be effective. Look it up. Obama will force them to buy abortifacients as sure as you were born.

Second, taxes: well, when, in a strong economy a Republican White House is running up massive deficits, then it seems there is a problem that needs to be fixed. You’re off to a bad start.

I said nothing about the deficit. I said Biden wants to raise taxes, and he does.

Libya, eh? Must have missed that.

I doubt you did. Remember the killings at Benghazi? Remember “We came, we saw, he died hahahahahaha”

 

[Ridgerunner]

To govern competently.

Non-answer.

Supposedly there were people in the White House dedicated to pandemics and Trump fired them. Supposedly Trump was President for three years before the pandemic hit, so he had plenty of time to get those supplies in place.

Do you think he knew Obama sold them off? Frankly, I doubt it. Those that were retained were defective. I doubt Trump knew that either.

How is a Supreme Court ruling temporary?

When it’s returned to lower courts for adjudication.

Libyans fighting Libyans.

The U.S. started it. Obama even said later he regretted doing it, as well he should since jihadists took over half the country because of it.

 

[Ridgerunner]

No, it is the problem with Trump’s managerial style. He cannot govern competently. Mixed messages, confusion, backbiting governors, making up stuff on the fly, inability to give clear directions, lack of good data, etc. That’s all on Trump and that is what the Democrats will have to fix.

All conclusions. No facts.

The US started it how?

Remember “leading from behind” that Obama said we were doing? We started arming the jihadists and bombing the Libyan government forces. It was during an ill fated attempt to retrieve the arms that Benghazi happened.

 

[pnewton]

Your hyperbole is silly.

It is not hyperbole if it is true. That does not mean it is meaningful. We are in a recession breaking all sorts of records. Of course this is not like the Great Depression in that all that is needed for a quick rebound is in place.

However, voters have never impressed me with their intelligence or ability to vote from anything except their bank account, or last week’s news. Trump will likely receive more blame than he deserves from a large number of people. I look for him to lose hundreds of thousands of votes from families of the bereaved alone, right or wrong.