Real Clear Politics Poll Predictions 9/23 (Anybody care to prognosticate?)

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SuperLuigi said:
Realistically, those polls are inaccurate even for today.

I think we’ve got a great chance to flip Senate seats in NE, WI, MT, ND, VA and even CT.

We’ve also got things running in FL, MI, MO NM and OH.

Sleepers are in MD, RI, HI, MN, NJ

The key seats to hold are IN and MA. ME is going to Angus King who is probably going to caucus with the democrats and Nevada would be tough for the democrats.

I like the republican’s chances in the Senate.

The House will still be under GOP control, and I think the democrats are going to have some more competitive races in districts they think are safer. GOP will probably end up with a slight net loss due to redistricting in New York, Minnesota, Florida, and Illinois.

Romney has been running solidly against Obama for some time now, and given the inaccuracy of the polls, unless Obama can clear 52% consistently in RCP average, he will lose. Romney is running a precision campaign that zeroed in on about 8 states or less and seems to be playing for the electoral win.
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McCaskill might win in Missouri all right, because of Akin’s gaffe. But she is so widely despised, I have some difficulty believing people will re-elect her. Maybe, but we’ll see.
 
SuperLuigi said:
I think the republicans will keep the House and Romney is on a good, more or less cautious, precise path to victory.
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These and other similar comments about a Romney sure win remind me of what used to be said of Papal elections: “he who enters the Consistory a Pope leaves it a Cardinal.” 🤷
 
Rich_Olszewski said:
These and other similar comments about a Romney sure win remind me of what used to be said of Papal elections: “he who enters the Consistory a Pope leaves it a Cardinal.” 🤷
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Run statistics on those elections and then get back to me.

Both liberals and conservatives on here are skeptical of polls, especially when they don’t show them something favorable.
 
Rich_Olszewski said:
These and other similar comments about a Romney sure win remind me of what used to be said of Papal elections: “he who enters the Consistory a Pope leaves it a Cardinal.” 🤷
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I for one,am not assuming anything,but I am cautiously optimistic,but it ain’t over til it’s over…
 
Swiss_Guy said:
I did 6. I’m surprised Arkansas and northeastern Wisconsin are solid red; I thought Arkansas had all the bluedog Dems that took votes from Republicans. NE Wisconsin usually is a tossup leaning Repub (heavily Catholic) so maybe the socially conservative-ness of Republicans is having more of an impact than it usually would with abortion and gay marriage being a big deal now.
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The cultural divide in the Great Lakes is huge. It’s literally rural vs urban. The suburbs going republican means that conservatives have an edge.

States like WI have been blue because of education and agriculture, not because of gay rights or even abortion. Sure, there is Madison and Milwaukee and a smattering of liberal colleges, but that’s about it.

If anyone has any doubt that people don’t care about social issues like marriage or even abortion, I strongly suggest looking at the TFP’s youtube video site of rallies held in Minnesota, Maryland and downtown New York City.

Also, look at what has happened in local NY elections since the state legislature rammed so-called “gay marriage”:down their throats. Some politicians were primaried out and the democrats have had a hard time winning.

The ironic thing about the marriage issue is that it is young independents and republicans who are keeping the gay rights stuff alive.

I realize the Ds added it to their platform, but it is defined much more along age cohorts and minorities and foreign born immigrants who staunchly oppose so-called “gay marriage”.
 
Jeanne_S said:
I for one,am not assuming anything,but I am cautiously optimistic,but it ain’t over til it’s over…
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Well, the Rs still have to show for the debates and keep on campaigning. There’s no doubt about that.

But they are in a favorable position.

Much more so than is being reported.

It’s one reason why every time the Rs win big the elite left are shocked in some way, shape or form.
 
Swiss_Guy said:
They are sound asleep. Not going to be waken up any time soon. 😉
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Well I like Kurt Bills a lot, and he’s starting to pick up that undecided vote.

It’s just Paul Wellstone and Jesse Ventura won’t supposed to win, either.

What’s frustrating to me is that the dem incumbent there doubled down on everything Coleman got raked over the coals with and the state wants to re-elect her?!

My eye has been more so on Rhode Island and New Jersey.

Maryland is interesting to me because a prior report showed Steny Hoyer’s home county having more registered republicans than democrats.
 
SuperLuigi said:
Maryland is interesting to me because a prior report showed Steny Hoyer’s home county having more registered republicans than democrats.
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Are you kidding me?

I live in Steny Hoyer’s district. Steny Hoyer isn’t even running a campaign this year.

I don’t even know who his opponent is…

And, btw, the only places that have even a parity between parties are St Mary’s and Calvert counties. And they are so sparsely populated that they don’t matter. Charles, and A-A county are Democratic. And, to boot, his district is gerrymandered down to cover College Park.

Steny doesn’t have a care in the world…other than to get hit by stray bullets from gang warfare if he makes the sorry mistake of making a campaign stop in certain parts of his district.
 
SuperLuigi said:
The cultural divide in the Great Lakes is huge. It’s literally rural vs urban. The suburbs going republican means that conservatives have an edge.

States like WI have been blue because of education and agriculture, not because of gay rights or even abortion. Sure, there is Madison and Milwaukee and a smattering of liberal colleges, but that’s about it.

If anyone has any doubt that people don’t care about social issues like marriage or even abortion, I strongly suggest looking at the TFP’s youtube video site of rallies held in Minnesota, Maryland and downtown New York City.

Also, look at what has happened in local NY elections since the state legislature rammed so-called “gay marriage”:down their throats. Some politicians were primaried out and the democrats have had a hard time winning.

The ironic thing about the marriage issue is that it is young independents and republicans who are keeping the gay rights stuff alive.

I realize the Ds added it to their platform, but it is defined much more along age cohorts and minorities and foreign born immigrants who staunchly oppose so-called “gay marriage”.
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Milwaukee/Madison quite a bit of the state; Milwaukee county with 1 million and Dane with 1/2 a million. Western Wisconsin is pretty liberal; it’s interesting because if you look at the state the Scandinavian parts vote Democratic and the German Republican.
 
I pray that the Clear Politics poll showing Warren winning the senate race in Massachusetts is wrong.

Jim
 
boldlygo said:
I also voted #3. I’m an Independent, but I haven’t voted for a Democrat at any level since the Democratic platform supported abortion. I can’t imagine a Catholic voting for Obama now.
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You will undoubtedly find some Catholics at this forum who are voting for Obama. In fact, Obama leads Romney in the Catholic vote nationally by 1%. Draw your own conclusions.

I support Romney.
 
Tampa_Dave said:
You will undoubtedly find some Catholics at this forum who are voting for Obama. In fact, Obama leads Romney in the Catholic vote nationally by 1%. Draw your own conclusions.

I support Romney.
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Nope. Last poll has it 51-43 (IIRC):cool:
 
Ridgerunner said:
McCaskill might win in Missouri all right, because of Akin’s gaffe. But she is so widely despised, I have some difficulty believing people will re-elect her. Maybe, but we’ll see.
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I think Akin will win. Nobody will publicly admit they’re going to vote for him. As you say, Claire is despised. Claire will only carry the cities of KC and STL and St Louis county from north of HWY 40.
 
Rich_Olszewski said:
At my age (70), I’m satisfied just to be able to carry on. 😃
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As old as I am, I am grateful to be able to carry on. I am deeply worried about the course this country is taking and for my children and grandchildren. Makes me glad I am as old as I am.
 
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