P
ProVobis
Guest
I would think it be greater than this due to the fickleness of the voter and the fact that Gallup sample size for a particular day to be quite low. It’s more effective as a tracking device but it puts the same weight on a particular voter’s sentiment a week before as another one of the same day. Generally the higher the sample size, the lower the margin of error, but there is hardly a poll that can afford to poll 40,000 voters randomly each day just for the heck of it.And the polls are at most with an accuracy of 95% which means that there is a 5% chance that they could be way off. So, my guess is that the margin of error in the polls is larger than the advertised margin of error of 1%. Because of the various factors that can influence voters at the last minute, I would look for a final vote toll in the area of +/- 5% of what the polls are showing.