Were you watching CNN when they talked about Huckabee winning some states 4 yrs ago after McCain basically wrapped up the nomination in FL that yr?
Sorry, but I’m not going to let that fly without seriuosly challenging you on that, I happen to study political science…
Anyways, Mitt Romney is shaping up to be a MUCH weaker “front runner” than John McCain. I’m pretty sure John McCain didn’t lose 3 out of 3 states on the same night last time around. Factually, he lost 19 states and won 31. So far Mitt Romney has won 3 out of 8. Extrapolate that out, at this rate, Mitt will win only 18 states total (at this rate).
But, let’s consider that Mitt doesn’t have a prayer in: GA, AL, TN, MS, LA, AK, or KY. That’s 7 Southern states I’m saying he’ll lose. Then, he’s got a very slim chance in NC, TX, and WV. Now we’re up to 10, not including the 5 he’s already lost.
Then, you gotta factor that Santorum has 3 weeks to build a campaign to compete in the states coming up. Gingrich will also be competing in the states coming up. So will Ron Paul.
Mitt Romney needs all of the Northeastern moderate Republican delegates he can get. Well, it looks like Ron Paul is going to take a whole lot of them away in the state of Maine.
Bottom line: 75% of Republicans still hate Mitt Romney. Depending on the momentum and the situation of the race, they’ll vote for either Santorum or Gingrich.
Romney’s campaign apparently wasn’t having any interaction with voters. Romney would go to a rally, read prepared remarks (basically put on a prepared show of how inevitable he was, and leave). Rick Santorum would take questions from the audience for sometimes an hour and a half. And, his answers apparently were very good.
It looks like the case that, “You should vote for me because I have the most money and organization, which means I’m the most electable, which means I’m inevitable” isn’t a very good message for WINNING.
If Mitt doesn’t win BOTH Arizona and Michigan before Super Tuesday… then on Super Tuesday I predict he will lose at least half of the Super Tuesday states.