You obviously missed the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll (
reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSTRE81514720120207) conducted on February 2-6, which has Ron Paul surging to second place NATIONALLY, only seven percentage points behind Mitt Romney, who has seen his lead drop by one percentage point point since early January. Paul gained five percentage points since the last poll.
Paul is gaining despite a concerted attempt by neoconservatives to derail his progress. Powerful neoconservative commentators like Limbaugh, Levin, Savage, Erick Erickson, Beck, Hannity, O’Reilly, Kristol, Krauthammer etc, have made it clear by their words and actions that their strategy is to ignore or ridicule Ron Paul in order to discredit him with the conservative voters who comprise their audiences. Despite their dirty tricks, Paul is surging.
As to your mention of Ron Paul’s recent performances in the recent straw polls, it is important that you remember, estesbob, that not one single delegate was awarded on Tuesday. Instead, the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado were the very first step in the delegate selection process. There are still over 40 states left to go. The Missouri primary means nothing. It was a non-binding popularity contest; the contest for delegates won’t take place for another month. In Iowa, where not 1 of the 28 delegates has been awarded yet, and in Colorado and Nevada, Paul will do very well in the state delegate counts. The delegates awarded will far exceed the straw poll numbers. In Minnesota where Paul finished a solid second, he also has a strong majority of the state convention delegates, and the process to elect delegates has also just begun, so Paul is well-organized to win the bulk of delegates there.
By the way, estesbob, Gingrich and Santorum have major ballot access problems. Neither of them will be on the ballot in Virginia and neither of them have full slates of delegates in Tennessee. In Missouri, Gingrich was not even on the ballot. Santorum is not on the ballot in Washington DC and lacks full delegate slates in North Dakota, Ohio and Illinois.
This is a two-way race between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.