Predictions of the end of the Catholic Church have been around for 2,000 years.
Jimmy Akin says it way better than I can in the “Fast-Growing Fallacy”
If one were to prefer religion based on long-term, sustained growth, the Catholic Church would be the one to prefer. With almost 2,000 years of growth, the Church today is larger than it has ever been before, with over a billion members. More than half of all Christians are Catholics and more than one in six human beings is a Catholic. And the number is rising.
For example, in 1997—the most recent year for which global statistics are currently available—the Church had an overall increase in membership of over ten million, only a little more than half of which can be accounted for by baptisms under the age of seven, and an increase in spite of the loss of members due to death and defection.
And the Catholic Church is growing not only in the world at large but in America in particular. In 1998—the most recent year for which national statistics are available—the U.S. Catholic population had an overall increase of 455,000, including 162,000 conversions to the Catholic Church (i.e., cases of people joining other than baptisms of those below the age of seven).
It may be important to point this out to those who commit the “fastest-growing” fallacy and wish to represent the Catholic Church as stagnant or declining in membership. It is especially valuable to know the number of adult conversions per year, since an anti-Catholic might attempt to dismiss American Church growth as due only to infant baptisms or immigration.
Needless to say, the Catholic growth rates in both the United States and the world dwarf what any other church is doing. Nobody else in the world gets an net increase of ten million people in a year, and nobody else in America gets a net increase of half a million people in a year. And remember that these represent net increases in membership—after deaths and defections have been factored in—so the actual number of converts is significantly higher.
Even if we look at just U.S. membership growth without infant baptism, nobody else in America gets 162,000 new non-infant members in a year, nor does any other American church have an overall increase of half a million members a year. When you really look at the numbers, the picture that those who commit the “fastest-growing” fallacy often wish to paint of a stagnant, declining Catholic Church simply won’t hold up.
Ultimately though, as we said at the beginning, membership affiliation is to be determined by truth, not popularity or growth. And in the truth category the Catholic Church wins hands down.
catholic.com/thisrock/2000/0005chap.asp