A revolutionary theocracy and major world oil supplier, the Islamic Republic of Iran has, since its inception, demanded recognition as a regional power, sought to lead the Muslim world and dreamed of creating an Islamic superpower.
It perpetually sees the United States, the “Great Satan,” as a deadly rival. It also adopts a stridently anti-Israel stance and is widely suspected of secretly seeking nuclear weapons’ capability so it can pursue its ambitions more assertively. But, even without nuclear weapons, Iran is seeing many of its wishes come true.
The U.S. and Israel are witnessing their influence and power deteriorate in the Middle East as the Arab Spring robs them of old allies and shatters old assumptions.
The fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt robbed Israel of a stable southern border and the certainties of a 32-year-old peace treaty, while open rebellion in Syria is bringing instability to the Jewish state’s northern border.
When the United States overthrew Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 2003, it removed an historical barrier to Iran’s regional ambitions, accomplishing in weeks what Iran had failed to do in eight years of brutal war.
Now U.S. troops are withdrawing from Iraq, Washington is leaving behind a Shiite-dominated, Iran-leaning government in Baghdad.
The loss of friendly dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya has thrown U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East into flux. Disagreements with Saudi Arabia over the handling of protests in Bahrain and Yemen have also driven a wedge of doubt between the two allies.
As Washington struggles with the region’s new realities, it sees the containment of Iran as an essential element of its Middle East foreign policy. The U.S. blames Tehran for terrorist attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, destabilizing Lebanon, supporting repression in Syria, funding Hamas in Gaza, threatening Israel with extinction and fuelling the rise of Islamist radicalism.
Iran’s growing influence has serious consequences for the Middle East’s stability. Israel, the Palestinians, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and the Gulf states are all affected by the growing tension that surround its rise.
“The United States sees Iran as a potential strategic rival, while Tehran views the American presence in the Middle East as a potential existential threat,” said Shahram Chubin, a Geneva-based Iran expert associated with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Thirty-two years after the Shah fell, Iran’s actions internationally are still driven by perceptions of U.S. opposition to its Islamic revolution…
