I don’t see Iran extending their influence that far for one simple reason. The Sunni-Shia divide is too great. As we post, I guarantee you that somewhere in Iraq and Pakistan, Wahhabist inspired extremists are planning the next bombing that will kill dozens of Shia pilgrims in those countries. In Syria, Shia and Sunnis are fighting each other, and if and when the next civil war breaks out in Lebanon, it’s going to revolve around Salafists against Shia. Regardless of how much oppostion to Israel and the US there may be in the Shia world, they’re still heretics in the eyes of the Sunni hardliners.
Anything is possible, really. Egypt desires closer ties with Iran so as to focus on common areas of shared concern but the real sticking point is
Syria as I explained above. Iran enthusiastically supports the Arab Spring everywhere else apart from in Syria and this strains relations a little with countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and others post-revolution that want closer links with it in a kind of “Islamist Front” against Israel, the West and their “corrupt” clients in the region (as they see it); that being the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirates (ie Qatar, Dubai etc.) the latter of which have much Western influence and many Westerners living there (including a family friend of mine). All these post-Arab Spring nations support the Syrian rebels against Assad.
So we have the confusing situation whereby Iran supports the Arab Spring in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya etc. and wants to become a close ally of these countries whilst it supports Assad who they oppose.
It will be interesting to see what Iran does next.
I’m not going to say that you or anyone else is wrong because there are so many angles from which to look at and approach this situation. You are correct about the Sunni/Shia divide, although some analysts say that this is too simplistic a view of what is going on. Many Sunnis dislike Shi’ia doctrinre but look to Iran as a bulwarck against the West and Israel. Iran for its part is an enthusiastic supporter of the Arab Spring and since its own Islamic Revolution has been desirous to unite Muslims worldwide whether Sunni or Shia, despite some problems with Sunnis within its own borders.
Pakistan, for example, has very cordial relations with Iran - and that is the Sunni country with nuclear weapons. Iran also has consistently helped the Taliban in Iraq and Afghanistan against Co-alition forces there and is one of the primary funders of Sunni Hamas in Palestine. Indeed Hamas is often called a “proxy” of Iran alongside Alwaite Syria an Hezbollah in Lebanon, despite being Sunni. That crosses the divide.
Certainly though Iran thinks that it will be able to spread its influence into power vacuums left by the revolutions, since it is now relatively stable after the quelling in 2010 of the Green Movement resistance groups within its own ranks.
Whether or not it will actually suceed in this endeavour is indeed up for debate.
