The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

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OurLadyofSorrows said:
That is why authorities are imposing the restrictions relevant and why we need to heed them. A couple of countries are recording 1 death every 10 minutes. ICU are also full of young and old people. If this virus ever practiced age discrimination, it dropped that line of attack a while ago
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The current data which we have, and it is incomplete, indicates this will be about as twice as deadly as the seasonal flu. But that’s the CURRENT data, and much of it is based on poor data. At the onset of this outbreak, the subset of sampling we took for number of deaths were those who had died, so obviously the death rate percentage was going to be quite high. If you sample 100% of the people who died, well, 100% death rate. Now, I know that’s tongue-in-cheek, but that’s how the original data was collected. As this disease progresses and more data is collected, we will likely see the death rate drop.
 
I suggest you read ZZxzx_Road’s linked article about “We’re making decisions without reliable data”.

The worst part of this is people are panicking and making decisions based on emotion, fear, and lack of data. During today’s normal press conference, the CDC Director essentially said they were fairly certain the transmission of the disease did not take place through “aerosol” means, or basically not through droplets in the air, but by remaining on surfaces where it then is transferred by touch from that object to the person’s mouth, eyes, or nose.

So if that’s true, why are we “social distancing”? That wouldn’t matter would it? Wouldn’t it also make sense that instead of locking down our entire globe, we ensure that those who are the most susceptible (e.g.: nursing homes, hospitals, etc.) are kept isolated? And the those who have pre-existing conditions stay at home? And the rest of us 80% (at minimum) could go about maintaining world sanity (errr… order). That would have a completely less dramatic effect that will ripple throughout society in so many more harmful ways.
 
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Nj is now in lockdown as per coworkers text. 🥺

Seriously I believe this is biological terrorism.
 
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We New Jerseyans are not on lockdown yet although we are encouraged to stay indoors and have an 8:00 pm curfew. The governor has announced that stronger measures will be announced tomorrow but not sure if it will be a complete lockdown.
 
Katie777 said:
Seriously I believe this is biological terrorism.
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I’m starting to think that might be true. Never in my 70 yrs. has anything like this total shutdown of life happened and I’ve lived through very serious polio, measles and some deadly influenza outbreaks.

My concern is my 92 yr. old mom and not giving the virus to her or other family members I live with, so I stay indoors but do have to go out occasionally for food and meds. I also pray that others, esp. young people, don’t get this virus. However, I’m not afraid and if it’s my time, so be it.
 
Ok, first a little clarification on the Everlywell home testing. It is NOT a home test. It is merely a collection kit that comes complete with sampling material and proper shipping containers. It offers nothing more than any medical facility and clinic does. Their non profit at cost testing is $135.00.

I have one issue with this. Specimen collection is the crucial step in getting a reliable result. Even with clear instructions, many people will collect the specimen incorrectly…many! I’m a retired lab tech and this was a problem we dealt with all the time…usually those stool cards for blood kits (occult blood tests). The company merely sends the specimens to labs that now perform Covid 19 testing. You are much better off allowing clinics, doctors and nurses to collect your specimens. This is just an FYI.

The whole point of social distancing is to spread out the rate of infection to allow hospitals to handle the numbers. It is shown to work and is still needed. I’m interested that someone is now saying it is contagious only by contact, not aerosols or droplets…I need to see that confirmed before I’d tell anyone to feel safe going out. That’s a great mistake if it’s wrong!
 
There was an interview on a man who has/had it and it was traced back to a mere handshake at a bowling alley.
This is at best a level 3 virus, most likely communicable via airborne methods.
Too many reports of grouping infections are unfortunately pointing this direction…
 
Several months will not give us reliable data. This is an emergent and current situation. We are learning on the fly, the rubber has literally hit the road with our learning. We are learning through experience. Yes people are testing for drugs, vaccines, survival and transmittance of the virus, but until we have a stable situation with a large sample size to run stats on

All data is suspect and unverified
 
Amen to this. It is confirmed a droplet and aerosol contageon. We need to start dispelling all the myths and take this seriously, as the Chinese did. I think everyone has by now realised it is not like the flu.

About biological terrorism, hmm time will tell.

At a wedding in Australia the count now is 35 people infected. That is how contagious it is and is the best argument for social distancing.
 
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My personal theory?

Men are stronger, but women are hardier.

Although, if China has more males (remember that people would abort girl children many years because boys were considered a hedge against old age), then it is logical that there are more men dying because there are more men.
 
OurLadyofSorrows said:
Actually no I am not, I said age discrimination and did not specify the data for deaths, recoveries and those critical, because quite frankly we have no robust data at the moment globally. What we know is this virus has stopped discriminating regarding age, or that was a myth put out initially because China also has Many young people in ICU.
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OK I have seen the data about young people in the ICU. Two things: (1), over 2/3’s of Chinese men over the age of 15 are smokers and Wuhan has some of the worst air pollution in all of China. Hence it is no surprise that a fair number of younger people ended up in the ICU; (2), along those lines, it is estimated that at least one of every five young Americans are either smokers or vapers or both and it is suspected that this cohort makes up most of the young population in ICU’s.
Pattylt said:
Ok, first a little clarification on the Everlywell home testing. It is NOT a home test. It is merely a collection kit that comes complete with sampling material and proper shipping containers. It offers nothing more than any medical facility and clinic does. Their non profit at cost testing is $135.00.

I have one issue with this. Specimen collection is the crucial step in getting a reliable result. Even with clear instructions, many people will collect the specimen incorrectly…many! I’m a retired lab tech and this was a problem we dealt with all the time…usually those stool cards for blood kits (occult blood tests). The company merely sends the specimens to labs that now perform Covid 19 testing. You are much better off allowing clinics, doctors and nurses to collect your specimens. This is just an FYI.
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It is an inside the cheek swab. That’s a bit easier than stool cards. But your point is taken regarding that the actual testing goes to the labs.

Given the lack of timeliness regarding getting any great quantity of tests to the public, to anyone who has some respiratory symptoms and wants one, this is far better than nothing and it should be given a chance, not talked down. Have to remember the safest place for those clinics to collect samples is with drive thru testing as is done in South Korea. Not the same as doing it inside a doctor’s office which carries its own danger.
OurLadyofSorrows said:
All data is suspect and unverified
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If you are saying 100% of all data, that is not quite true. There is the Grand Princess data for instance. And the South Korean data. Both of these tell us a lot. But your beef will be that they didn’t capture every last thing we need to know therefore it is automatically suspect. But the data did tell us that there were more asymptomatic infected than symptomatic infected in a population that skewed heavily toward older people. And a lot more asymptomatic infected than symptomatic infected in a younger population. Those are very useful things to know.
 
Australia is researching this drug, it is a malaria drug. Not a great idea to rush out and buy it as it has its own issues.
 
Got this from Viber groups, especially for those of us living with elderly relatives and family members. This could be practiced if they were living in another house. Stay healthy and safe everyone.

 
Data , for it to be reliable requires accuracy and precision. It also requires repeatability to be verifiable. We simply dont have that atm, and cannot rely on the data from a cruise ship or a wedding party, or extremely skewed testing which is going on at the moment. In 12 months we will have reliable data but right now we simply do not have accuracy and precision for statistics to be robust.

There are bound to be thousands if not millions of asymptomatic people in all age groups globally by the end of this.
There are bound to be extremely ill, mildly ill and fatal cases by the end of this that go u reported.
Let me quote an Italian doctor ’ we are not counting anymore,’

Italy has military truck convoys taking away the covid19 dead, and are talking about mass graves. And that is only for those who make it to hospital and are diagnosed. That experience is being repeated in Iran, and no doubt will be in other countries.

Italy and china also report ICU units full of younger people.
 
For you to have an idea, which I didn’t have until this week, each test costs about U$S 2 .(argentine $ 1500) That is to say the cost in the Institute that does them here abroad ( not privately).
It isn’t t that low as it may sound in dollars for us but 135 dollars sounds a lot…
Anyway, it is good you may have the opportunity if it can be afforded
I am sharing because I had no idea how much South Korea had invested, and massive testing yielded good results.
 
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