This US summer is 'what global warming looks like'

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For the “end-permian extinction” great warming & CO2 emissions from extreme volcanism, a brief overview is here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extinction_event

For the PETM great warming & extinction, see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PETM

You can also go on Google scholar and look up articles about these and other great warming events. I read a study about how the warming during the end-Permian may have led to H2S outgassing that killed off a lot of life – see geology.geoscienceworld.org/content/33/5/397.full.pdf+html

There are other such warming events, as well. These are all common knowledge in paleoclimatology, textbook stuff. This may also help: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology
Very good.
Now tell us…is the relationship causal or is it coincidental?

Use your logic here. Do we have anything here that tells us that a buildup of gas triggered these warming periods?

And also bring your logic to bear on the simple question, how exactly does this relate to what man is doing now?
 
Ever heard of the Dust Bowl? Global Warming from all those automobiles I presume. Have those scientists ever heard of continentality?
The scientists are really smart. They know about the dust bowl and many many other things. They really wow me with all their knowledge. Including the end-Permian great warming 251 mill. yrs ago when 95% of life on earth died, and the PETM great warming 55 mill yrs ago, with another extinction event.

They also know that we’ve been in a solar minima for the past 10 years or so, when the climate should have cooled substantially, had it not been for AGW.

They also know about continentiality, ESNO, NOA, AO, PDO, Walker Circulation, Hadley cell, UHI effect, etc etc.

It is truly amazing how much they know. We shouldn’t underestimate them.
 
Very good.
Now tell us…is the relationship causal or is it coincidental?

Use your logic here. Do we have anything here that tells us that a buildup of gas triggered these warming periods?

And also bring your logic to bear on the simple question, how exactly does this relate to what man is doing now?
Please don’t believe anything I have to say. You can get the info from scientists. That’s were I get my info. They are the ones with a huge set of data and variables who are looking at the thing from all different angles, and have come up with it’s human GHG emissions, and none of the many other possible explanations pan out. They’ve looked at everything, including cosmic rays, etc.

But maybe it’s the Devil, and I don’t think they have a good grasp of his works and possible fingers in this. Or the “Dev-oil.” 🙂
 
The scientists are really smart. They know about the dust bowl and many many other things. They really wow me with all their knowledge. Including the end-Permian great warming 251 mill. yrs ago when 95% of life on earth died, and the PETM great warming 55 mill yrs ago, with another extinction event.

They also know that we’ve been in a solar minima for the past 10 years or so, when the climate should have cooled substantially, had it not been for AGW.

They also know about continentiality, ESNO, NOA, AO, PDO, Walker Circulation, Hadley cell, UHI effect, etc etc.

It is truly amazing how much they know. We shouldn’t underestimate them.
Uh :confused: Okay. 😃

I would love to expand this conversation about scientists. They’re smart, sure, but they don’t know as much as you believe they know. Further, I see you are Catholic. Have you heard about the providence of God? God is still in control. Further, do you buy into the lie that the earth can not sustain the current human population? If you do, then you’ve already taken steps away from truth. Truth is God. Malthusian Theory suggests that populations rise dramatically and then plummit. Black Plague, etc. The point is that there are many explanations for what scientist yet understand. Dark Matter is one example. String theory. They’re theories, scientists attempt to explain what they yet to understand. Should we heed the warnings, take them into consideration, of course. But that does not mean we should stop progress.

And interested sci-fi show is Star Trek. I believe its either Next Generation (or Voyager) that talks about Warp drive fracturing the universe to where warp drive would no longer be possible. We seem to be in a very difficult situation. I would love to go back to living as man did 100 or so years ago. I’m for it. However, it’s just not going to happen. I believe the anxiety from the rush living is killing our society. Besides, in another 100 years our great grandchildren will probably be Muslim. Why? Because, Muslims, unlike Christians and Atheists, continue to have large families. And whether or not we understand science, in order for a culture to sustain itself the growth rate must be at least 2.1%. If it were not for Mexico’s immigration to the U.S., we would not continue in the direction we thought we’d go for long.

Sorry, I digress. Lot on my mind.
 
Hey everybody listen to me…!
We know very well that,if we want to US summer globle worming looks like…Mostly Scientists and germans suggest taking about a look at U.S…
 
Uh :confused: Okay. 😃

I would love to expand this conversation about scientists. They’re smart, sure, but they don’t know as much as you believe they know. Further, I see you are Catholic. Have you heard about the providence of God? God is still in control. Further, do you buy into the lie that the earth can not sustain the current human population?
I see by your name that you may be a Carmelite (as I am). If so, then you would also be concerned about sin.

Well, God gave us free will, and – surprise – many of us, maybe all, have fallen into sins great and small.

One sin is slander – against scientists, for instance.

Another is gluttony, which means it will be more difficult for an American to enter into Heaven than for an elephant to enter thru the eye of a needle.

Another is killing people – which we are doing thru global warming, along with the rest of God’s life forms on earth.

I don’t know know why God gave us free will. What was He thinking. There must be some method in His madness. And now we just have to make the best out of a bad situation, and at least try to avoid sin and do the right thing, including EC (environmental correct) things, like turning off lights not in use. The lives you save may be your own progeny.

RE what earth’s resources can support – I think not 7 billion people living at the level that Americans live. However, maybe 30 billion or so living at the level the people of Mali live. But this is all a moot point now, bec we have decided to destroy life-supporting resources (like taking the feeding tube away from Terri Schiavo) for the poor and future generations through our harms done by our greenhouse gas emissions. So as the decades and centuries go by the earth will be able to support less and less people, and within a few centuries the earth perhaps will not be able to support even a single person, nor any of God’s other creatures.

That’s at least what some scientists are saying, like Dr. James Hansen, top climate scientist at NASA, who, unlike the rest of us IS concerned about the grandchildren. And remember, it is a sin to slander scientists, bec that might put a person in a lot hotter place than a globally warmed world and for all eternity, no less.

Scientists think there may still be time to reverse this before the warming spirals out of control from positive feedbacks, so it is up to us to beat the clock and do all we can to prevent it. God gave us free will – to do the right thing or not.
 
Another is gluttony, which means it will be more difficult for an American to enter into Heaven than for an elephant to enter thru the eye of a needle.
I know their is a biblical reference there somewhere, but it is so distorted from anything actually in the bible that I have doubts.
Can you please provide the actual biblical passages involving elephants?
Another is killing people – which we are doing thru global warming, along with the rest of God’s life forms on earth.
Please specify who exactly ‘we’ is.
I have no recollection of engaging in global warming.
Lacking super powers, heating an entire planet would seem a task I am not up to.
I don’t know know why God gave us free will. What was He thinking. There must be some method in His madness. And now we just have to make the best out of a bad situation, and at least try to avoid sin and do the right thing, including EC (environmental correct) things, like turning off lights not in use. The lives you save may be your own progeny.
So my descendents lives may be cut short if I leave the light on?
Seems like you are arguing the absurd.
RE what earth’s resources can support – I think not 7 billion people living at the level that Americans live. However, maybe 30 billion or so living at the level the people of Mali live. But this is all a moot point now, bec we have decided to destroy life-supporting resources (like taking the feeding tube away from Terri Schiavo) for the poor and future generations through our harms done by our greenhouse gas emissions. So as the decades and centuries go by the earth will be able to support less and less people, and within a few centuries the earth perhaps will not be able to support even a single person, nor any of God’s other creatures.
It is a poor analogy to attempt to equate any waste of natural resources with the deliberate murder of another human being.
That’s at least what some scientists are saying, like Dr. James Hansen, top climate scientist at NASA, who, unlike the rest of us IS concerned about the grandchildren. And remember, it is a sin to slander scientists, bec that might put a person in a lot hotter place than a globally warmed world and for all eternity, no less.
Pointing out the inconsistancy and illogic of a piece of research is not slander.
Scientists think there may still be time to reverse this before the warming spirals out of control from positive feedbacks, so it is up to us to beat the clock and do all we can to prevent it. God gave us free will – to do the right thing or not.
OK, assuming we have these super-powers…
Reverse what?
And what exactly does that point us towards?
And who exactly gets to decide what is or is not proper climate?
Who gets the rain? Who gets sunshine?
Who gets a long growing season? Who gets their crop ruined by cold?
Who gets to be God?
And isn’t their a commandment that covers that?
 
I know their is a biblical reference there somewhere, but it is so distorted from anything actually in the bible that I have doubts.
Can you please provide the actual biblical passages involving elephants?
Well, Jesus used “camels” in his saying, but since the average American lives a much richer life – maybe more than 20 fold the level of rich people back then (we probably use up and throw away more resources in a month than they King Herod in 5 years) – I think we need to go to “elephant.” 🙂
Please specify who exactly ‘we’ is.
I have no recollection of engaging in global warming.
Lacking super powers, heating an entire planet would seem a task I am not up to.
Mainly Americans, since we emit about double the GHGs Europeans do, and 20+ times more than people of India and Mali, and historically the U.S. has emitted much more per capita than any other country over the past 200 years. “We” does include most people on planet earth, but mainly Americans. Something no politician will ever tell you or perhaps any priest or preacher (afterall, they need that money in the plate), but this is being brutally honest and frank, which will probably turn people off, but I don’t like lying.
So my descendents lives may be cut short if I leave the light on?
Seems like you are arguing the absurd.
Yes, plus the myriad of other things we refuse to reduce, reuse, recycle, or refuse to go on alt energy when afforable and feasible. Some estimate Americans could reduce their GHG emissions by 60% or more without lowering their living standards or productivity, and save money to boot. That 60%+ excessive GHG emissions of us 300,000 Americans, added to not-as-excessive emissions of others around the world, could send earth systems into runaway warming, AGW spiralling out of control from positive feedbacks, and end all life on earth, or at least a huge portion of life, maybe 50%, maybe 75% (including our descendents and food – which comes from living things).
It is a poor analogy to attempt to equate any waste of natural resources with the deliberate murder of another human being.
It is deliberate, bec we KNOW we are killing people through our environmental harms (complex and complicated tho they may be), even if these harms are a by-product and not the main intent of our behaviors. Refusing to listen to the scientists does NOT get us off that hook. It might not be as egregious or dramatic or a media event as one person slitting another person’s throat, since it is many people contributing to the death of many people who are perhaps remote in place and time – but it results in death of people, whether now or in the future. The more proximate causes of their deaths might be heat stroke, starvation, vector disease, “natural” disasters, etc, but we people emitting GHGs are the ultimate cause. And I don’t think we can get by with blaming it on the devil either.

No, the buck stops with us “fallen nature” sons & daughters of Adam and Cain. Tho we do have recourse to God’s abundant grace and help, if we would simply turn to God in prayer and ask for it. He will help us find solutions to AGW (and other problems) and help us implement them – but much much prayer is required.
Pointing out the inconsistancy and illogic of a piece of research is not slander.
Climate scientists are not inconsistant nor illogical – that’s a really harsh claim. You need to read the actual studies they publish, which are very high quality.

What makes you say they are inconsistant and illogical – except that it is based on some disinformation put out by the Exxon/Koch/Scaife-funded climate denial industry (which is now being sued for their lies).

Furthermore, the natural greenhouse effect (without which life would be impossible on earth, it would be so cold and has been known about for over 200 years) is based on the laws of physics, and it is quite logical to project that our additional gigatons of GHG emissions would warm the planet, even without observational evidence (which is very solidly now in).

JPII and I didn’t need extreme sci certainty on AGW when we started reducing our GHGs and trying to get others to do likewise 22 years ago. However, bec of the complexity of earth systems, it wasn’t until 1995 that sci reached 95% certainty on AGW, even tho they projected it would be happening for over 100 years in light of increasing industrialization & GHG emissions.

If people weren’t paying attention back in 1990 to JPII or in 1995 when AGW reached sci certainty, or to the ever-growing scientific supports for this claim over the years since (the sci is extremely robust now and AGW is a well-established fact) or to BXVI and his many admonitions to mitigate AGW, then I’d hope and pray people start paying attention now, and doing whatever one can to reduce their GHGs, at least those measures that save them money without lowering their living standards. Please, please, please, pretty please. :gopray2:
 
Well, Jesus used “camels” in his saying, but since the average American lives a much richer life – maybe more than 20 fold the level of rich people back then (we probably use up and throw away more resources in a month than they King Herod in 5 years) – I think we need to go to “elephant.” 🙂
Not if you want to stay true to the meaning of the scripture.
Mainly Americans, since we emit about double the GHGs Europeans do, and 20+ times more than people of India and Mali, and historically the U.S. has emitted much more per capita than any other country over the past 200 years. “We” does include most people on planet earth, but mainly Americans.
Funny. I have yet to find any Americans engaging in heating the planet.
Yes, plus the myriad of other things we refuse to reduce, reuse, recycle, or refuse to go on alt energy when afforable and feasible. Some estimate Americans could reduce their GHG emissions by 60% or more without lowering their living standards or productivity, and save money to boot. That 60%+ excessive GHG emissions of us 300,000 Americans, added to not-as-excessive emissions of others around the world, could send earth systems into runaway warming, AGW spiralling out of control from positive feedbacks, and end all life on earth, or at least a huge portion of life, maybe 50%, maybe 75% (including our descendents and food – which comes from living things).
OK, you seem fairly good with percentages and statistics.
I am not.
So perhaps you could produce a function for me that would allow me to directly tie an activity to a specific temperature change.
It is deliberate, bec we KNOW we are killing people through our environmental harms (complex and complicated tho they may be), even if these harms are a by-product and not the main intent of our behaviors.
Same issue.
I will need a cheat sheet.
If I burn x kilowatts unnecessarily, I have killed y people.
Please, if we are to accept the burden of the guilt you would have placed upon America, then I would like to be able to quantify the number of people I am responsible for murdering.
Climate scientists are not inconsistant nor illogical – that’s a really harsh claim. You need to read the actual studies they publish, which are very high quality.
What makes you say they are inconsistant and illogical – except that it is based on some disinformation put out by the Exxon/Koch/Scaife-funded climate denial industry (which is now being sued for their lies).
When scientists advise everyone that there is a difference between climate and weather, but then point to the weather as evidence of climate change…that is inconsistent.
Exxon, while good for research, is not the reason for these scientists to be labelled inconsistent.
Their own inconsistency is.
 
Not if you want to stay true to the meaning of the scripture.

Funny. I have yet to find any Americans engaging in heating the planet.

OK, you seem fairly good with percentages and statistics.
I am not.
So perhaps you could produce a function for me that would allow me to directly tie an activity to a specific temperature change.

Same issue.
I will need a cheat sheet.
If I burn x kilowatts unnecessarily, I have killed y people.
Please, if we are to accept the burden of the guilt you would have placed upon America, then I would like to be able to quantify the number of people I am responsible for murdering.
I suppose if someone were filing a legal case (criminal or civil) against us, they would have to have those figures.

All I need to know as a moral person trying to reduce my harms to others is that people are dying from impacts caused (at least in part) by AGW, and I am contributing to AGW by my GHG emissions. And therefore, as a Christian who wants to reduce my harms to others, I need to reduce my GHGs.

Probably the number of people harmed and dying from AGW right now is not a very big percentage of the world population, but if it does get to total annihililation within a few 100 or 1000 years, then it will be 100%. And since a portion of my CO2 emissions last for 100s, even 1000s of years, then I’d be responsible in part (even if only in small part along with all the other billions of perps) for the harms over the next 1000s of years.

The problem with these “non-point source” pollution issues in which you cannot pin it on some single factory or something, but is it many many people contributing, it is impossible to bring court cases or even figure out the exact harm each person is responsible for (especially since it is on-going and the harms from what I have emitted to date will be harming well into the future).

But don’t worry, someone will probably figure out I have been responsible for killing .35 people through year 2200, and you are responsible for killing .17 people, or something. (BTW, in court cases even if 10 people have killed one person, they are all get the same sentence if it had only been one person killing one person.)

Or I guess at least in Heaven or that other place we’ll know for sure how many people we have harmed and killed…
When scientists advise everyone that there is a difference between climate and weather, but then point to the weather as evidence of climate change…that is inconsistent.
Exxon, while good for research, is not the reason for these scientists to be labelled inconsistent.
Their own inconsistency is.
Since climate is the statistical aggregate of weather, then it makes sense that the things impacting climate are also impacting weather. How could you have an increased globally average temp, without it being hotter at least in some places at some times? Or, where do you think they get the globally average temperature, except from weather data around the world.

And it is also a matter of physics that the increased heat energy can convert into increased kinetic energy (like more fierce hurricanes, storms, windstorms). Also it is commonly known that warmer air holds more water vapor and dessicates soil and plants, and that it can come down in more severe deluges.

It really all makes good sense. You can read up on the greenhouse effect to understand how certain gases – like CO2, CH4, N2O, etc – act to retain heat in the earth’s atmosphere. It’s based on the laws of physics.
 
The problem with these “non-point source” pollution issues in which you cannot pin it on some single factory or something, but is it many many people contributing, it is impossible to bring court cases or even figure out the exact harm each person is responsible for (especially since it is on-going and the harms from what I have emitted to date will be harming well into the future).
And just as difficult to prove.

You wish to claim a higher ground of morality in living a ‘green’ lifestyle, and that is fine.

But do not mistake where exactly that morality is from.
You are not saving lives, you are being the good steward God calls us to be.

Trying to tell people that they are killing people by leaving their lights on is unprovable, illogical, and ultimately makes you look like just another environmental radical that really has no care for people in favor of state control over lives.

If you cannot argue the point from known and provable, then you should not be trying to make that point. It does more harm to your case then good.
 
Mainly Americans, since we emit about double the GHGs Europeans do, and 20+ times more than people of India and Mali, and historically the U.S. has emitted much more per capita than any other country over the past 200 years. “We” does include most people on planet earth, but mainly Americans. Something no politician will ever tell you or perhaps any priest or preacher (afterall, they need that money in the plate), but this is being brutally honest and frank, which will probably turn people off, but I don’t like lying.

Some estimate Americans could reduce their GHG emissions by 60% or more without lowering their living standards or productivity, and save money to boot.
America is not the major emitter of “greenhouse gases”. China is. India is gaining on us.

American fuel use as a percentage of the world’s whole is almost exactly equal to its percentage of worldwide production of goods and services. This is highly suggestive of the proposition that it simply takes energy to produce things that people want and need. The question is whether people worldwide can do without much of what we consume. Relying more and more on “muscle power” to produce is probably a formula for worldwide misery.

Undoubtedly, most of us could use less energy in our lives. But 60%??? I have my doubts about that. Much of our personal consumption is not controlled by us. The food we eat, for example, takes a lot of energy to produce, but we don’t have any control over that. The food is either in the store or it isn’t, and if it is, we are consuming a lot of energy in a sense if we buy it and take it home. And for many forms of employment, there is really no elasticity to energy consumption except to some degree in efficiency. If I’m a shipper, I can haul a bigger load using less energy than hauling a lot of small loads, for example. But at a point, there are few efficiencies to be gained other than simply failing to ship adequate quantities of goods.
 
I think that we should stop demonizing CO2. Why? Without it, the plants would suffer.
 
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They also know that we’ve been in a solar minima for the past 10 years or so, when the climate should have cooled substantially, had it not been for AGW.
Really? They might want to recheck that idea.
Solar Minimum: According to NOAA and NASA, the sunspot cycle hit an unusually deep bottom from 2007 to 2009. In fact, in 2008 and 2009, there were almost NO sunspots, a very unusual situation that had not happened for almost a century. Due to the weak solar activity, galactic cosmic rays were at record levels.
Solar Maximum: The Sun’s record-breaking sleep ended in 2010. We are now in Solar Cycle 24, headed for a peak or maximum in mid-2013, as early as May. Most experts predict that the cycle will be exceptionally quiet, producing a lower number of sunspots than the average cycle. In addition, Cycle 24 took a long time to get under way. Some theorists believe that there is a correlation between Earth’s temperatures and both the level of solar activity and the length of the solar cycle. The low solar activity levels and the delayed start to the solar cycle indicate that we’re in a cooling phase.
It was only a 3 year period - not a 10 year period. I also remember the summer of 2008 as the one that we never even reach 100 degree mark. If I recall correctly the summer of 2007 (or was it 2008?) the city of Houston only hit 100 once - another rarity.

The 1990s and early 2000s were marked with a huge amount of solar activity that subsided later in the decade - not the 10 years that you claim.
 
Really? They might want to recheck that idea.

It was only a 3 year period - not a 10 year period. I also remember the summer of 2008 as the one that we never even reach 100 degree mark. If I recall correctly the summer of 2007 (or was it 2008?) the city of Houston only hit 100 once - another rarity.

The 1990s and early 2000s were marked with a huge amount of solar activity that subsided later in the decade - not the 10 years that you claim.
Here are some websites that might help re the 11-year solar cycles (the last one, 23, lasting 12 years):
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_minimum
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_23
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24

And some graphics:



As you can see sumspot activity and solar irradiance started declining around 2000-2002, then reached it lowest point in 2009, and starting increasing, and will perhaps reach a maximum in a few years.

During this time (2000-2007) the global average temps were actually increasing on the whole (with some leveling off), but not decreasing back down to, say, 1960 temps when AGW is said not to have any or much impact:
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/PNAS_GTCh_Fig1.gif

Hope this helps.

Also note, that AGW has to do with long-term world-wide warming – not just a few years, or a few places. In other words, that it may have been somewhat colder than usual in a particular place in no way disproves AGW. And you can see that none of the individual years after 1995 dip down to pre-1980 years. Tho it is much better to view the 5 or 10 year running averages, to tease out the signal & trend from the “noise” of the many short-term factors impacting climate:

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/dTs_60+132mons.gif

Here’s a chart that puts it all together, with the temps tracking the CO2 more strongly after 1960, and the solar irradiance/sunspots before:



I hope and pray this helps, and inspires people to turn off lights not in use and put into practice at least some of the GHG reduction measures that save money without lowering living standards. We owe at least that much to God, who has given us every good material and spiritual blessing, to help His creature (including people). :gopray2:
 
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