Thread on GOP Attacks on Trump

[WillyAL]

I don’t see why Rubio is not exiting the race and endorsing cruz.

I suspect he will do just that after the Florida primary (assuming that the polls are accurate and he doesn’t win). That said, he is probably getting a lot of pressure from the Republican “establishment” to stay in for as long as possible. (Same with Kasich.) After all, every delegate Rubio or Kasich wins is one that Trump doesn’t win, thus making it harder for Trump to get the delegates needed for an uncontested victory. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending upon one’s point of view), this would likely be political suicide. Rubio would be a pitiful spectacle if he were to keep on campaigning after losing his own state - especially given his dismal record so far in the primary campaign. Better for him to get out now - before losing his home state primary - go home, regroup, and come back to fight another day.

 

[TomFromMD]

I think he (along with Cruz and Kasich) knows that if he drops, his supporters will not all follow whomever he supports. In other words, some percentage of Rubio voters will go to Cruz, Kasich and Trump. So, the best thing to do, if they want to stop Trump from reaching 1237, is to all stay in the race.

Up until now, that was definitely true. But from now on, about half of the remaining primaries are winner take all, and many of the others are winner take most. Trump just has to have a plurality in many of them to get a big win. Only 5 of the remainders are proportional. In Illinois, for instance, Trump only has 31% of the support, and the other three each have 15-20%. Unless something major happens, he’s getting all of those delegates. Fortunately, a lot of the winner take alls are in the Midwest, where Cruz has a lot of strength.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Primary_schedule

I doubt Kasich will win anything outright other than (hopefully) Ohio - from a game theory perspective, he should probably drop after that, even if he wins. Rubio would be lucky to get Florida at this point. I’m not sure if there’s anywhere else he has any real support.

In the end, I think Trump’s going to hit 50%. Cruz is the only other candidate that is going to get a lot of delegates, and I don’t see it being enough, even if Rubio and Kasich drop out.

So… looks like another President Clinton is in our future.

 

[queenofheartscv]

Up until now, that was definitely true. But from now on, about half of the remaining primaries are winner take all, and many of the others are winner take most. Trump just has to have a plurality in many of them to get a big win. Only 5 of the remainders are proportional. In Illinois, for instance, Trump only has 31% of the support, and the other three each have 15-20%. Unless something major happens, he’s getting all of those delegates. Fortunately, a lot of the winner take alls are in the Midwest, where Cruz has a lot of strength.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Primary_schedule

I doubt Kasich will win anything outright other than (hopefully) Ohio - from a game theory perspective, he should probably drop after that, even if he wins. Rubio would be lucky to get Florida at this point. I’m not sure if there’s anywhere else he has any real support.

In the end, I think Trump’s going to hit 50%. Cruz is the only other candidate that is going to get a lot of delegates, and I don’t see it being enough, even if Rubio and Kasich drop out.

So… looks like another President Clinton is in our future.

I’m so ready for the Trump-Hillary face off. She will regret she ever thought of running.

 

[TomFromMD]

I’m so ready for the Trump-Hillary face off. She will regret she ever thought of running.

Be careful what you wish for. Head to head, Hillary beat Trump in 5 of the last 6 polls, by an average of 6.3%. She’s beaten him in 18 of the last 20.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Cruz runs even with her, Rubio beats her by 4%, and Kasich by 7%.

 

[queenofheartscv]

Be careful what you wish for. Head to head, Hillary beat Trump in 5 of the last 6 polls, by an average of 6.3%. She’s beaten him in 18 of the last 20.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Cruz runs even with her, Rubio beats her by 4%, and Kasich by 7%.

Yep, I’m fully aware.

 

[Peter_J]

Up until now, that was definitely true. But from now on, about half of the remaining primaries are winner take all, and many of the others are winner take most.

Good point, Tom.

Even look at Texas, which wasn’t winner-take-all. Cruz got 43% of the vote, Trump 27%, Rubio 18%, Kasich 4%, and Carson 4%.

But Cruz would almost certainly have gotten a majority if Rubio hadn’t been on the ballot, which would have given him all 155 delegates. And if that had happened then we would right now be seeing:
408 delegates for Trump, 411 for Cruz
instead of
459 delegates for Trump, 360 for Cruz.

That is not, of course, to say that we should pine for what-could-have-been. I just stress that it’s important to understand how the process works, and how much the four-way race is benefitting Trump.

Need I remind anyone of how Trump got 100% of SC’s delegates (50) three weeks ago with 32.5% of the vote?

 

[Cider]

Washington Post:

I really disappointed in him. In fact I’m disappointed in pretty much the whole Republican party, and I don’t mean just the “establishment”.

 

[Lily_Bernans]

I’m so ready for the Trump-Hillary face off. She will regret she ever thought of running.

Not when she’s being sworn in as president!

 

[GEddie]

I really disappointed in him. In fact I’m disappointed in pretty much the whole Republican party, and I don’t mean just the “establishment”.

They have been fading away since 1988, methinks.

ICXC NIKA

 

[mikekle]

If Kasich does not win OH…he is done and will have no choice but to give it up.

 

[Sy_Noe]

Not when she’s being sworn in as president!

 

[Sy_Noe]

Except Kasich hasn’t returned the favor. He claims he isn’t in the business of suggesting how voters should vote. But I’m wondering if Kasich figures let Trump knock out Rubio in FL and that will leave Trump, Cruz, and himself remaining and then maybe at a brokered convention Kasich will be the establishment pick.

 

[Peter_J]

Except Kasich hasn’t returned the favor.

Well, that’s his right.

Anyhow, I believe that Rubio’s statements have been oversimplified a bit (and I even think that some people are attributing to him some statements that were made by people campaigning for him). He didn’t encourage his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich instead of him. What he said is that he understands that Ohio voters (some of them I mean), in making their decision, take into consideration the fact that Trump and Kasich are the candidates with the best chance of winning there. (Likewise, FL voters, in making their decision, take into consideration the fact that Trump and Rubio are the candidates with the best chance of winning there.)

 

[Dwyer]

Billionaires, tech CEOs and top members of the Republican establishment flew to a private island resort off the coast of Georgia (i.e., the U.S. state) this weekend for the American Enterprise Institute’s annual World Forum, according to sources familiar with the secretive gathering . . .

Apple CEO Tim Cook, Google co-founder Larry Page, Napster creator and Facebook investor Sean Parker, and Tesla Motors and SpaceX honcho Elon Musk all attended. So did Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), political guru Karl Rove, House Speaker Paul Ryan, GOP Sens. Tom Cotton (Ark.), Cory Gardner (Colo.), Tim Scott (S.C.), Rob Portman (Ohio) and Ben Sasse (Neb.), who recently made news by saying he “cannot support Donald Trump” . . .

“A specter was haunting the World Forum–the specter of Donald Trump,” (William) Kristol wrote in an emailed report from the conference, borrowing the opening lines of the Communist Manifesto. “There was much unhappiness about his emergence, a good deal of talk, some of it insightful and thoughtful, about why he’s done so well, and many expressions of hope that he would be defeated.”

huffingtonpost.com/entry/aei-world-forum-donald-trump_us_56ddbd38e4b0ffe6f8ea125d

Wow.

I can’t make this stuff up.

 

[Peter_J]

We have to remember that while 35% of the voters are for Trump, there remains a strong 60-65% who do not want Trump and they have every right to use the process to obtain a different nominee.

I don’t know about 65%, but “in hypothetical one-on-one match-ups with Cruz and Rubio, Trump loses. Cruz leads Trump 54 to 41 percent”. That’s certainly hopeful, in terms of getting Cruz into the White House, but it still leaves things a bit precarious. Hypothetical one-on-one match-ups are fine, but the actual situation is that there are 3 similar/like-minded (?) candidates running against Trump at the moment.

thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/272170-poll-trump-loses-head-to-head-vs-cruz-rubio

 

[irishpatrick]

Up until now, that was definitely true. But from now on, about half of the remaining primaries are winner take all, and many of the others are winner take most. Trump just has to have a plurality in many of them to get a big win. Only 5 of the remainders are proportional. In Illinois, for instance, Trump only has 31% of the support, and the other three each have 15-20%. Unless something major happens, he’s getting all of those delegates. Fortunately, a lot of the winner take alls are in the Midwest, where Cruz has a lot of strength.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Primary_schedule

I doubt Kasich will win anything outright other than (hopefully) Ohio - from a game theory perspective, he should probably drop after that, even if he wins. Rubio would be lucky to get Florida at this point. I’m not sure if there’s anywhere else he has any real support.

In the end, I think Trump’s going to hit 50%. Cruz is the only other candidate that is going to get a lot of delegates, and I don’t see it being enough, even if Rubio and Kasich drop out.

So… looks like another President Clinton is in our future.

Tuesday will tell us a lot.

 

[irishpatrick]

Except Kasich hasn’t returned the favor. He claims he isn’t in the business of suggesting how voters should vote. But I’m wondering if Kasich figures let Trump knock out Rubio in FL and that will leave Trump, Cruz, and himself remaining and then maybe at a brokered convention Kasich will be the establishment pick.

I suspect Kasich is actually interviewing to be Trump’s VP. Ohio is a critical state to win for Republicans and putting Kasich on the ticket will get Trump that state.

 

[Peter_J]

I suspect Kasich is actually interviewing to be Trump’s VP.

I seriously doubt that Kasich is secretly in Trump’s corner.

I would put that even more strongly e.g. “There’s no chance in hell of that” except that I stopped saying things like that after Sarah Palin came out in favor of Trump. But if that is (secretly) the case, then I don’t think Cruz has any chance of winning.

 

[irishpatrick]

I seriously doubt that Kasich is secretly in Trump’s corner.

I would put that even more strongly e.g. “There’s no chance in hell of that” except that I stopped saying things like that after Sarah Palin came out in favor of Trump. But if that is (secretly) the case, then I don’t think Cruz has any chance of winning.

Oh, I agree, I don’t think he’s in Trump’s corner, but I think he sees an opportunity. I don’t believe most people on Presidential tickets are best friends, most of the time they were staunch competitors during the primary process. Most of the time, VP decisions are based on what they can bring to the Presidential candidate, which is why McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin was such a terrible decision–it brought him nothing and it showed the people that his first important decision was a bad one.

I think Cruz might be a better decision than Kasich for the VP spot, but I don’t think Trump would do that because Cruz is a very strong personality. He might nominate Cruz to the Supreme Court.

 

[mary_bobo]

I’m so ready for the Trump-Hillary face off. She will regret she ever thought of running.

And when he starts with his usual politics of personal destruction, she will pull the gender card and gain symphony from the uninformed voters.