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Michael68
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Keep chasing Russia
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Jig_Saw
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That’s the independent prosecutor’s job. I’ll give him time to do it. In the meantime, I will question Trump’s continuing love for all things Russia and his continued alienation of long-time American allies and just have to wonder why so many Republicans think this qualifies as patriotism.
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Michael68
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Evidence, not speculation. The media has you hook, line and sinker and turned you into a troll
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Jig_Saw
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Could you take a second and contain all of your wonderful thoughts on a single reply to my post instead of posting multiple replies to my single post? It makes it really hard to carry on a discussion.
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Michael68
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Why should I do you any favors Troll?
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YADA
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This was the polling data - no inferences
The Polls showed Hillary winning 195 Electoral Votes to Trumps 154 …
Of the states they polled and showed on the link I provided [PEW RESEARCH too - not some unknown] - Pew had Hillary winning 10 of the 15 states and Trump 5 … that is Hillary being favored as the winner 2:1 …
On that same link - They had Hillary’s chance of winning in the “UpShot Forecast” 85% to Trumps 15% … Now 85-15 is a very large margin …
You can say I made an inference with the popular vote - but again … I believe its a fact that the margin of her popular vote win - nationally was about the same as her popular vote win in CA and NYC … maybe add in Chicago … so it really is safe to say she did not win the popular vote in a majority of the 50 states - just a couple of the most populace states …
So - No - I do not see convincing evidence that the Election Polls were accurate and therefore we should believe these polls … and you failed to address that fact that at time polls are now used to shape public perceptions …
How do you know that these polls are accurate and not merely trying to convince the people that Trump is loosing military support?
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Michael68
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I know I will never trust polls again! They have been proven to be propaganda for the left
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randomuser
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So when’s he going to lock her up?
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St_Pancake
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jf;sdk
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St_Pancake
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That was the entire point to begin with and because Hillary had more of the popular vote, he thought the polls accurate. Even though it was pointed out several times that Hillary was confident as polls that figured the electoral college vote had her ahead too.
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YADA
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I feel the same … I joined to discuss the validity of Polls - you have not responded to my query …
You asserted the validity of the Election Polling - which many - even Pew understands the polling was erroneous
pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/
And we know that polling is now used to sway public opinion … and not another tool of those who seek to undermine this presidency
I think its legitimate to know why you think this poll is truly illustrating what you are being told it is …
I am not attacking you nor saying Trump can walk on water …
Why are you so certain that this poll is correct that Trump is loosing military support? How are military communities defined … they did some polls in high military dense populations - but the articles I read did not discuss if they identified the callers were actually military … active, retired, veteran - nor what the questions were …
Do you personally know military personnel who have turned from Trump? If so why?
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Jig_Saw
Guest
My bad for using poor terminology. You are using polling to determine probabilities. Now, you have correctly stated that using the polling data to determine probabilities showed that Clinton would likely win the electoral college. That is reasonable, but that does not mean she was guaranteed to win. As you states, the New York Times upshot showed that Trump had a 15% chance of winning. Again, that does not show the polling as incorrect.
For example, the Cubs were down 3-1 in the World Series and came back to win the next three games. If the probability of the Cubs winning any one game was 0.6 (6 times out of 10), then the probability of the Cubs winning all three games would be 0.216 (1 time out of 5). Yet the Cubs did it. That does not mean that the probability of the Cubs winning any one game was higher than 0.6 though. And that is what you are suggesting in your analysis.
As far as individual states go, it is entirely irrelevant for the comparison of the national poll. The national poll showed that Clinton would win the popular vote by 4%. She won it by 2%. That indicates that the polls were correct within the margin of errors. That is what I am basing the statement on that polls are accurate and that is the only thing that matters here - not making probabilities based on the polling.
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Jig_Saw
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Well, you could be charitable. But if you don’t want to be, that’s fine. Do whatever you want.
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Jig_Saw
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Now, I did respond to your comments. Please be patient. As I said, I had no idea that you were feigning ignorance or being sarcastic like JeanneS was being.
As I said, my point is that the polling of the last election was accurate and should not be dismissed as another had suggested that it was inaccurate and hence any poll that is unfavorable to Trump should be dismissed. Individuals I know would be anecdotal and not an accurate indicator of the general trend in that large of a population.
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Jig_Saw
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And, as I pointed out, this comment has absolutely no baring on my point.
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St_Pancake
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It would just be cruel to argue with you. Maybe another day.
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Jig_Saw
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Not much to argue. You’re just wrong that this point can be applied to my argument.It would just be cruel to argue with you. Maybe another day.
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St_Pancake
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actually, your argument came within someone’s argument and you’ve just been wrong from the beginning but have a good night.
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Jig_Saw
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No, my argument was a counterpoint to someone else’s claim that was a misuse of the data.
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St_Pancake
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Sure it was.
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