Trump’s Support Drops in Military Communities

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Whatever happened to Michelle Bachman?The left did a real hatchet job on her.She too was painted as a blithering idiot.Nevermind she held a post doctorate degree in tax law.So really,more educated than HC,yet she went down as well…
Yes. She was another one. Even Gerald Ford. Remember how they depicted him
tripping and falling? The democrats have been mean spirited bullies for decades.
I wonder what they said about Eisenhower? Do their accusations of incompetent idiots
go back that far?
 
Oh … that is an interesting evolution; typically on the forum, whenever poll come out that are unflattering to Trump, we get a simple broadside against polls “proven” by the election outcome. You make a more interesting claim. For which, of course, you have not a scintilla of proof.
You don’t get to define our premises for us, then argue that we’re ‘evolving’ them when we correct you.

zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/how-wapos-latest-poll-give-hillary-12-point-advantage-over-trump
Of course, like many of the recent polls from the likes of Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, something curious emerges when you look just beneath the surface of the headline 12-point lead.
“METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents.”
As we’ve pointed out numerous times in the past, in response to Reuters’ efforts to “tweak” their polls, per the The Pew Research Center, at least since 1992, democrats have never enjoyed a 9-point registration gap despite the folks at ABC and The Washington Post somehow convincing themselves it was a reasonable margin.
BTW, HRC electoral college landslide? Weeks out there may have been projections along those lines, with EC votes approaching 400, but the polls narrorwed considerably in the last ten days; who was predicting a this landslide on election day?./QUOTE]

Good question. This is from election day.

nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Well first let me say that I am happy that you were not reduced to head scratching.
But your logic is still invalid, as i am sure that you see; and the first premise as you amended it remains unsubstantiated.
Only to those who refuse to pay attention to underlying polling data.
 
What basis do you have for claiming that I am “obsessing”?
I just think it is odd for people to deny reality.
In this day and age, it is not really so odd. Reality is just too frightening for most of us; fantasy is more reassuring. Trump is thought of as the new messiah; so was Obama. Hopefully, Trump will prove himself in the months and years to come.
 
In this day and age, it is not really so odd. Reality is just too frightening for most of us; fantasy is more reassuring. Trump is thought of as the new messiah; so was Obama. Hopefully, Trump will prove himself in the months and years to come.
Obama is still treated like the messiah. Look at how MSNBC treated his visit to Canada today. The host was all smiles and giggling and giddy like a school girl. Pathetic!
 
Obama is still treated like the messiah. Look at how MSNBC treated his visit to Canada today. The host was all smiles and giggling and giddy like a school girl. Pathetic!
Who is the host you are referring to?
 
You don’t get to define our premises for us, then argue that we’re ‘evolving’ them when we correct you.

zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/how-wapos-latest-poll-give-hillary-12-point-advantage-over-trump
I haven’t; the “us” that you refer have regularly posted blanket claims about polls being wrong, without the elaboration in your premise.

The 12 point lead was an outlier even at the time. 10/23/16! IIRC the polling average - see 538 or realclearpolitics - was 6 points. These sites also show the precipitous drop in that lead in the last ~10 days. The polls opened and closed throughout the campaign. Why would you highlight the result of a particular poll on a particular day and conflate that with a prediction?

You are correct, however, that in addition to the polling statistics, the turnout modelling is an important part of the process. 538 has looked for systematic problems by comparing predictions to results over decades and weighting the various pools according to the quality of their prediction in his averaging. That is why he predicted a closer election that others. Whatever the plusses and minuses of the models, public pollsters need to strive for accuracy; their reputation and livelihood depends on it.
It is interesting that the that in about a third of the paths, Trump wins, yet their statistical modelling had 17:3 odds against. They may have underestimated the correlation in voting patterns, and treated the votes in various states as though they were independent trials. Silver incorporated a model of correlation in his model and that is presumably why his odds were much lower at 2:1. These odds at the day of election did not make Trump’s victory a long shot.
 
I haven’t; the “us” that you refer have regularly posted blanket claims about polls being wrong, without the elaboration in your premise.
Short form. It’s easier than typing out ‘the polls were wrong because the political forces behind them were determined to produce a specific outcome and massaged the numbers to get the result they wanted, thereby manipulating the electorate into believing their fake numbers.’

Brevity is the soul of discourse.
The 12 point lead was an outlier even at the time. 10/23/16! IIRC the polling average - see 538 or realclearpolitics - was 6 points. These sites also show the precipitous drop in that lead in the last ~10 days. The polls opened and closed throughout the campaign. Why would you highlight the result of a particular poll on a particular day and conflate that with a prediction?
That was just the first one that came up when I did a search. I’m not going to link to the 100,000 or more stories about the various polls being useless. Many polls that came out during the election had similarly skewed demographic breakdowns, consistently underestimating Republicans and Independents while adding in extra Democrats, completely out of line with the actual demographic breakdown of the population at large.
You are correct, however, that in addition to the polling statistics, the turnout modelling is an important part of the process. 538 has looked for systematic problems by comparing predictions to results over decades and weighting the various pools according to the quality of their prediction in his averaging. That is why he predicted a closer election that others. Whatever the plusses and minuses of the models, public pollsters need to strive for accuracy; their reputation and livelihood depends on it.
Which is why the polls suddenly started to show the race narrowing (but still with Clinton always winning) as the day got closer, because their credibility took a huge hit during the entire election cycle. Most of us have zero confidence in the believability of any of the pollsters now.
It is interesting that the that in about a third of the paths, Trump wins, yet their statistical modelling had 17:3 odds against. They may have underestimated the correlation in voting patterns, and treated the votes in various states as though they were independent trials. Silver incorporated a model of correlation in his model and that is presumably why his odds were much lower at 2:1. These odds at the day of election did not make Trump’s victory a long shot.
That was an example of wishcasting, where they couldn’t bring themselves to report the numbers honestly, even to themselves. Again, they’ve blown all hope of being trusted now. Remember, the NYT wrote an editorial piece where they admitted that they weren’t going to worry about journalistic integrity anymore because they had to destroy Donald Trump. So anything, anything at all, that they wrote about the campaign after that was automatically worthless.
 
Obama is still treated like the messiah. Look at how MSNBC treated his visit to Canada today. The host was all smiles and giggling and giddy like a school girl. Pathetic!
I noticed that too. He is in the presence of the messiah. Whatever words come out of
Obama’s mouth he is giddy over. Obama was actually thrilled of his effect on the
host and audience! He hasn’t lost his touch. He might be scarier now that he is out of the White House. Evil. Scary.
 
Metaphorically speaking,the Dems have enslaved the black population in other ways.😦
The Civil War was to Democrats what the Crusades were to Muslims. Neither one forgets or forgives, no matter what happens later.
 
I noticed that too. He is in the presence of the messiah. Whatever words come out of
Obama’s mouth he is giddy over. Obama was actually thrilled of his effect on the
host and audience! He hasn’t lost his touch. He might be scarier now that he is out of the White House. Evil. Scary.
I thought you didn’t watch mainstream media.
 
I haven’t; the “us” that you refer have regularly posted blanket claims about polls being wrong, without the elaboration in your premise.

The 12 point lead was an outlier even at the time. 10/23/16! IIRC the polling average - see 538 or realclearpolitics - was 6 points. These sites also show the precipitous drop in that lead in the last ~10 days. The polls opened and closed throughout the campaign. Why would you highlight the result of a particular poll on a particular day and conflate that with a prediction?

You are correct, however, that in addition to the polling statistics, the turnout modelling is an important part of the process. 538 has looked for systematic problems by comparing predictions to results over decades and weighting the various pools according to the quality of their prediction in his averaging. That is why he predicted a closer election that others. Whatever the plusses and minuses of the models, public pollsters need to strive for accuracy; their reputation and livelihood depends on it.

It is interesting that the that in about a third of the paths, Trump wins, yet their statistical modelling had 17:3 odds against. They may have underestimated the correlation in voting patterns, and treated the votes in various states as though they were independent trials. Silver incorporated a model of correlation in his model and that is presumably why his odds were much lower at 2:1. These odds at the day of election did not make Trump’s victory a long shot.
It doesn’t really matter how you justify it. We saw all these fake polls used throughout the campaign used as propaganda on the left and the media to convince Trump voters it was no use voting for him because he was going to lose and lose big. They used the polls to say we were basically crazy even supporting this guy because he didn’t have a chance at winning.

If you remember I was one of the only ones here that said this polling data was being used daily and sometimes hourly to dissuade Trump voters. They The media started to double down on this fake polling data as well as their hate speech towards Trump and I might be the only one who recognised that the media really knew Trump was going to win. I never wavered from that, not even once and I was right.

I see the same thing happening again with all this Russia, Russia, Russia nonsense. You can be a sheep of the media if you want. I am a sheep of the Lamb and think differently
 
I noticed that too. He is in the presence of the messiah. Whatever words come out of
Obama’s mouth he is giddy over. Obama was actually thrilled of his effect on the
host and audience! He hasn’t lost his touch. He might be scarier now that he is out of the White House. Evil. Scary.
Wow! Watching MSNBC! Good for you. You may have noticed that the host at 9:00 is Stephanie Ruhl. Not a he.
 
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