Trump Thread (cont.)

[_Abyssinia]

Hugh Hewitt: Trump Won’t Get 1,237 Delegates Unless ‘Political Asteroid Hits California’

m.townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2016/04/21/hugh-hewitt-trump-wont-get-1237-delegates-unless-political-asteroid-hits-california-n2152138

 

[Peter_J]

I think Cardinal Burke is being disrespectful to the Holy Father:

"In an interview with a Spanish Catholic weekly published last week, Burke said of the pope’s leadership: “Many have expressed their concerns to me. … There is a strong sense that the church is like a ship without a rudder.”

I don’t want to rehash everything I said in the NCR section about Traditionalist/fundamentalist Catholics … so let me just say Yes, that is disrespectful.

 

[Ridgerunner]

New York is a closed-primary state, so none of the 150,000 or so registered members of the Conservative Party of New York State were able to vote in the Republican primary… for either Trump *or *Cruz. Had Conservative Party voters been allowed to vote in the Republican Primary, Trump would still have won – but I’m willing to bet that Cruz (not Kasich) would have been the second-place finisher.

For someone who claims he isn’t being treated fairly… Trump got just under 525,000 votes in “yuge” New York (his home state) and for that he picks up 90-something delegates. Meanwhile, Cruz got just over 531,000 votes in “not-so-yuge” Wisconsin (not his home state) and for that he only picks up 36 delegates? Even Kasich picked up 155,200 votes (but no delegates) in Wisconsin. More total votes were cast in Wisconsin’s Republican primary than in New York’s (1,072,699 to 868,987), but Trump should be the GOP nominee? He’s got a long way to go before the Republican party unites behind him.

Also, Trump thinks he’s the only one who can beat Hillary… yet 1,054,083 New Yorkers (that’s more than the number who voted for all Republican candidates combined) voted for Hillary in the Democrat primary – and that doesn’t even take into account the 763,469 New Yorkers who voted for Sanders. If Trump wants to be the GOP standard-bearer, he needs to be putting together a winning coalition… something he (so far) hasn’t demonstrated he’s capable of doing.

Rhetoric is one thing, reality another. New York is an awfully blue state, and has been for an awfully long time. Possibly to Trump, the big thing with New York was winning it in the primary, which he did. That does not mean he necessarily thinks he’ll get it in the general. He probably won’t unless some really awful thing happens. Maybe the FBI discloses something really terrible about Clinton or the economy really heads into the dumper or some really terrible thing happens with terrorism or Russian seizure of more or all of Ukraine between now and November. Any of those could happen, except the latter two, because the potential aggressors would probably prefer Clinton in the White House to Trump or Cruz, either one. A billion dollar contract for Bill Clinton’s “lifetime memoirs” and it would be goodbye Baltic States and Ukraine.

 

[Thorolfr]

Transgender people should be able to use whatever bathroom they want, Trump said Thursday.

When Donald Trump is the voice of reason on transgender issues, you know you have derailed.

(Countdown to Trump backpedaling from this momentary lapse of decency in 3…2…)

Even though I don’t think that Donald Trump would make a good president, I do agree with him on some things and what he says about what bathrooms Transgender people should be allowed to use makes sense to me.

 

[Lily_Bernans]

I don’t want to rehash everything I said in the NCR section about Traditionalist/fundamentalist Catholics … so let me just say Yes, that is disrespectful.

I don’t mean to be disrespectful to Cardinal Burke. I’ll say he was removed from two posts and assigned to others. Still, I don’t think he should have said that about Pope Francis. I realize Pope Francis isn’t as conservative as Cardinal Burke would like, but still, Pope Francis is our Holy Father.

You don’t need to rehash. Neither one of us wants to disrespect the Church or anyone in it. I understand that. You are always very polite, and that is greatly appreciated.

 

[Lily_Bernans]

New York is a closed-primary state, so none of the 150,000 or so registered members of the Conservative Party of New York State were able to vote in the Republican primary… for either Trump *or *Cruz. Had Conservative Party voters been allowed to vote in the Republican Primary, Trump would still have won – but I’m willing to bet that Cruz (not Kasich) would have been the second-place finisher.

For someone who claims he isn’t being treated fairly… Trump got just under 525,000 votes in “yuge” New York (his home state) and for that he picks up 90-something delegates. Meanwhile, Cruz got just over 531,000 votes in “not-so-yuge” Wisconsin (not his home state) and for that he only picks up 36 delegates? Even Kasich picked up 155,200 votes (but no delegates) in Wisconsin. More total votes were cast in Wisconsin’s Republican primary than in New York’s (1,072,699 to 868,987), but Trump should be the GOP nominee? He’s got a long way to go before the Republican party unites behind him.

Also, Trump thinks he’s the only one who can beat Hillary… yet 1,054,083 New Yorkers (that’s more than the number who voted for all Republican candidates combined) voted for Hillary in the Democrat primary – and that doesn’t even take into account the 763,469 New Yorkers who voted for Sanders. If Trump wants to be the GOP standard-bearer, he needs to be putting together a winning coalition… something he (so far) hasn’t demonstrated he’s capable of doing.

Polls show Kasich having an easier time beating Hillary than Trump. If Trump arrives at the convention without the required number of delegates, I don’t think he stands a chance of being the nominee. He’s not going to be nominated on the second ballot.

 

[Peter_J]

Tomorrow he will dial it back. No worries.

Now you’re getting it. Isn’t it great that he says some things but then realizes they don’t help his numbers and is therefore willing to say other things (not like other politicians)?

 

[Vanny]

This morning, Trump stated that he wants to change the GOP platform on abortion to enshrine exceptions that Catholics cannot in good conscience support:

lifenews.com/2016/04/21/donald-trump-absolutely-wants-to-change-gop-platform-to-promote-abortion-in-cases-of-rape/

Not surprised at all. I’ve been saying for months that he is a progressive.
He’s not conservative. But I think his supporters already know that, even the super conservative ones, and have no trouble with it, as another poster up the thread has pointed out.

 

[FollowChrist34]

Trump Got Fewer Votes in New York Than Cruz Got in Wisconsin

There is no denying the dominance of Donald Trump’s performance in his home state of New York, in which he got 60 percent of the vote. Still, it is perhaps interesting to note that, with more than 99 percent of the vote counted in the Empire State, Ted Cruz got more votes in Wisconsin (a state with 10 electoral votes) than Trump got in New York (a state with 29 electoral votes)—531,129 to 524,932. That’s a reminder that New York isn’t exactly a Republican hotbed.

By far the highest vote tally that any GOP candidate has gotten in a single state during this primary season is Cruz’s tally in Texas, where he got 1,239,370 votes—easily more than double the number that Trump got in New York. The second-highest vote tally is Trump’s in Florida, where he got 1,075,094 votes. Third is John Kasich’s in Ohio, where he got 956,859 votes. (Indeed, fully 30 percent of Kasich’s votes to date have come from Ohio, compared with 19 percent for Cruz in Texas and 6 percent for Trump in New York.)

Nor was Trump’s 60 percent of the vote in New York the highest percentage so far. That honor goes to Cruz in Utah, where he got 69 percent of the vote (winning by 52 percentage points).

Overall, Trump has gotten 38 percent of the vote to date, a far cry from a majority. In fact, Cruz, with 28 percent of the vote to date, is closer to Trump (10 points off the pace) than Trump is to a majority (12 points off the pace). (Kasich has gotten only 14 percent of the vote.) In all, 62 percent of those who have voted to date in the GOP race have voted against Trump. In 33 states, a majority have voted against him. All of this is perhaps worth remembering when Trump talks about the will of the voters.

weeklystandard.com/trump-got-fewer-votes-in-new-york-than-cruz-got-in-wisconsin/article/2002046

Interesting.

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[Peter_J]

New York is a closed-primary state, so none of the 150,000 or so registered members of the Conservative Party of New York State were able to vote in the Republican primary… for either Trump *or *Cruz. Had Conservative Party voters been allowed to vote in the Republican Primary, Trump would still have won – but I’m willing to bet that Cruz (not Kasich) would have been the second-place finisher.

For someone who claims he isn’t being treated fairly… Trump got just under 525,000 votes in “yuge” New York (his home state) and for that he picks up 90-something delegates. Meanwhile, Cruz got just over 531,000 votes in “not-so-yuge” Wisconsin (not his home state) and for that he only picks up 36 delegates? Even Kasich picked up 155,200 votes (but no delegates) in Wisconsin. More total votes were cast in Wisconsin’s Republican primary than in New York’s (1,072,699 to 868,987), but Trump should be the GOP nominee? He’s got a long way to go before the Republican party unites behind him.

Also, Trump thinks he’s the only one who can beat Hillary… yet 1,054,083 New Yorkers (that’s more than the number who voted for all Republican candidates combined) voted for Hillary in the Democrat primary – and that doesn’t even take into account the 763,469 New Yorkers who voted for Sanders. If Trump wants to be the GOP standard-bearer, he needs to be putting together a winning coalition… something he (so far) hasn’t demonstrated he’s capable of doing.

Well, if Trump gets to 1,237 (never mind his campaign recent saying he’ll get to 1,400!) going into the convention, then I think they’ve just got to nominate him. But if it’s a contested convention then I think the delegates will take into consideration the number of votes – which is significant because Donald Trump has 48% of the delegates awarded thus far, but only 38% of the votes!

 

[Little_Sheep]

Another interesting Trump factoid. Trump is well known for openly answering questions many politicians dodge. But the one question he consistently refuses to answer? Whether he has paid for any abortions. Why do you think he refuses to answer that particular question?

Enquiring minds want to know!

 

[Little_Sheep]

OMG, whoops (I thought you liked him). I agree with you on Trump being the awful, absolutely last choice that is. I am almost on board myself. But simply because we have hit the end of the road, and it is a wall (no pun intended). No other workable option.

I actually like Cruz too - but he cannot win, no way, that is a dead end. We have to ask ourselves do we want Hillary or Trump, guys.

That is truly the question. I actually think Trump has a decent (but by no means a slam dunk) chance to get the magic number on that 1st ballot. But let’s say he’s a handful of delegates short…can the Republican Party really snatch it from him when he is the clear front runner and man of their people? I mean, I guess they can, but I think it would do the party irreparable harm. Of course, maybe that harm has already been done.

Such a fascinating election!

 

[Little_Sheep]

I’m thinking this is too simple.

Trump supporters are mostly middle class or lower middle class blue-collar white people that feel disenfranchised by the current system. They are frustrated that, no matter who is in office, both parties support trade deals that enrich the top but cost them jobs. Neither party was against NAFTA and neither party really wants to fight the TPP (let’s face it, any Republican resistance is because they hate Obama, not because it doesn’t match establishment values).

Now, Trump is taking advantage of that frustration and turning it in directed anger. And the anger is directed towards immigrants (build the wall, refugees) and a desire to have a strong military (kick a little butt). Make America great again and to them, it means a strong middle class (never mind that Trump has no clear plan to do this).

But Sanders’ supporters aren’t all that much difference. They mostly are young people who may have finished college and found that there isn’t the opportunities that they expected. They are frustrated as well, but Sanders is directing the frustration towards a stronger social safety net (free college, single payer health care) which may not particularly create more opportunities for his supporters, but at least they won’t be in debt.

Where does that leave things?

1. The social conservative Republicans are not dead, but they are losing. At least their guy (Cruz) is still in the race and doing alright. They just are a fairly distant second to the frustrated white lower middle class.
2. The business Republicans are in deep doo-doo. Their candidates did NOTHING this run. They are stuck with Governor Kasich as the last man standing and he has won only one state. Furthermore, they don’t believe what the social conservatives do and don’t care about their issues. They are usually supporters of the opposite of what a Trump supporter might want and honestly, Hillary Clinton is more in line with their beliefs than Trump. It is very possible that they may begin to switch heavily to Democrats (and they already are, see Paypal and North Carolina).
3. If someone can get the Sanders supporters and Trump supporters on the same page, then they can be the next President because these people have much more in common than they disagree on. That said, neither party establishment wants them and there is a natural distrust between some key Democratic supporters (middle class/lower middle class African Americans) and the Trump supporters.

My 84-year-old aunt, a lifelong South Carolina Republican, voted for (and supports) Trump because she thinks he is the only one with a shot to beat Hillary.

I think that attitude pushes Trump’s popularity with Republican voters of all stripes. He at least has the name recognition that HRC does and he’s happy to play in the mud. Lots of Republicans are #neverHillary types and I think that mentality makes Trump appealing no matter where he actually stands (and who really knows where he does) on the issues.

 

[Little_Sheep]

I agree. I’ve gotten so I can barely stand to listen to Trump anymore. Clinton’s speeches, on the other hand, are inspiring.

 

[FollowChrist34]

That is truly the question. I actually think Trump has a decent (but by no means a slam dunk) chance to get the magic number on that 1st ballot. But let’s say he’s a handful of delegates short…can the Republican Party really snatch it from him when he is the clear front runner and man of their people? I mean, I guess they can, but I think it would do the party irreparable harm. Of course, maybe that harm has already been done.

Such a fascinating election!

Well, easy now, Trump is not really the choice of the people - to date he has 38% of the vote. He just looks like the choice of the people because the party is so incredibly fractured. He is the closest thing we can produce to a choice of the people, and it ain’t much. A wild ride indeed.
View attachment 23154

 

[Little_Sheep]

…The Constitution guarantees my right to have guns…

It also guarantees your right to have a safe, legal abortion.

 

[Little_Sheep]

Well, easy now, Trump is not really the choice of the people - to date he has 38% of the vote. He just looks like the choice of the people because the party is so incredibly fractured. He is the closest thing we can produce to a choice of the people, and it ain’t much. A wild ride indeed.
View attachment 23154

I hear you, but I really think Trump’s commanding lead in the face of so many Republican candidates who hung on for so long is meaningful. Any establishment Republican with Trump’s early numbers would have been backed by the party and it would be a done deal by now.

It’s telling that the Republican establishment wants nothing to do with the top two Republican contenders for the candidacy. Disconnect from the base much?

Truly, though, I would rather Cruz win. He will be easier for Hillary to beat!

 

[FollowChrist34]

I hear you, but I really think Trump’s commanding lead in the face of so many Republican candidates who hung on for so long is meaningful. Any establishment Republican with Trump’s early numbers would have been backed by the party and it would be a done deal by now.

It’s telling that the Republican establishment wants nothing to do with the top two Republican contenders for the candidacy. Disconnect from the base much?

Truly, though, I would rather Cruz win. He will be easier for Hillary to beat!

Well, this raises the question of why doesn’t Trump get a majority of the votes from Republicans, doesn’t it? If he is going around calling himself the choice of the people? It is a free country - they could all vote for him. Why is he in such a tight spot? And please don’t say the Establishment or Cruz did it.

(A little over 500,000 people voted for Trump in NY; population of NY State is 20 million. And yes, a lot less voted for Cruz.)

 

[Little_Sheep]

Well, this raises the question of why doesn’t Trump get a majority of the votes from Republicans, doesn’t it? If he is going around calling himself the choice of the people? It is a free country - they could all vote for him. Why is he in such a tight spot? And please don’t say the Establishment or Cruz did it.

(A little over 500,000 people voted for Trump in NY; population of NY State is 20 million. And yes, a lot less voted for Cruz.)

He’s in such a tight spot because so many people populated the field for so long! Also, the “Establishment” DID sic Mitt Romney on him and set up the play to slice into his votes and delegates by telling Republicans to cast strategic ballots. I do believe they would NOT have done that if, say, Paul Ryan had been the clear leader in votes and delegates.

Still, I have no idea what might happen at the Convention. The whole thing is fascinating.

 

[Monkey1976]

It also guarantees your right to have a safe, legal abortion.

Could you point out exactly where that is? No need to be too specific - just the section or amendment would be sufficient.