Ukraine (cont.)

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NATO bases in Ukraine are to Russia what Soviet Missile bases in Cuba were to the US and what Nukes in Iran would be to Israel.
 
Seamus_L said:
NATO bases in Ukraine are to Russia what Soviet Missile bases in Cuba were to the US and what Nukes in Iran would be to Israel.
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Bingo. This - I think - is the key to understanding why Putin’s actions regarding Ukraine both past and future.
 
From Asnate’s article:
President Yanukovich’s refusal to sign the Association Agreement represents a rejection of these values. He had promised the EU in 2011 that he would deal with systemic corruption and to bring reform to the notoriously corrupt court system. However, he could not address either without undermining his own network of dubious wealth. When he came to office after the financial crisis, Ukraine’s debt was $30 billion; after three years under Yanukovich, it is $76 billion and the country is on the verge of default. He could have received a default-saving loan from the IMF at a lower interest rate than from Russia, if the corruption issues were addressed. He chose instead to save himself from scrutiny and so he turned to Russia, which does not have the same requirements. Even China refused the president financial aid.
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What was shocking to those in the president’s circle was that the violence did not produce the desired effect. People were not cowed or fleeing into silent fear. The president’s opponents had been mercilessly beaten, kidnapped and jailed without cause – as were their lawyers; sympathetic businesses were ‘visited’ by the police and residency permits of sympathetic foreigners revoked; 50 cars carrying food and clothing to the maidan were burned during the night, and traffic police were attempting to fine buses and private cars carrying demonstrators; and attempts have been made to repress the media – national and international journalists have been beaten. These tactics, however, proved impotent and the government showed its only weapon, violence, and its fear.
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Sadly, and again unaccountably, Yanukovich could have ended the demonstrations early by dismissing the minister of government in charge of the police, or the chief of police. People admit they would have gone home had this happened. Yet, no act of reconciliation, no acknowledgement of the suffering, kidnapping and death of demonstrators, no acceptance of any responsibility for the violence came forth. With every future step, he and his circle went further into violence, while the maidan remained peacefully resolute – until 16 January.
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On 16 January the government unconstitutionally passed into law limits on public association and freedom of the press, punishable by 15 years in prison. It ordered riot troops to shoot rubber bullets at night to clear the crowd. From this point, demonstrators began prying up cobblestones and preparing Molotov cocktails to throw at the armed troops. On 19 February, despite public promises to the contrary, the president gave orders for snipers to shoot to kill. Nineteen died that day, predominantly from bullets to the head and heart. News cameras and police cameras filmed the maidan day and night. They showed Molotov cocktails and cobblestones but never was a gun seen in the hands of demonstrators. This week the security forces revealed that they were ordered to shoot police as well, in order to lay blame on demonstrators. Sixteen police died. The current tally reads thus: 101 dead, 726 injured, over 400 still in hospital, and 50 still missing. Indeed, the innocent were slain. Their funerals are held publicly on local maidans.
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Yanukovich then agreed to return to the 2004 Constitution, which he and the courts had amended illegally in 2010. The earlier Constitution places ultimate authority in parliament, not in the president. He now faced the possibility of criminal investigation. The next day, 22 February, he unaccountably disappeared: there was no threat of death or violence; he was still president. Security cameras show him and his guards loading vans and two helicopters with the valuables from a palace which he built for himself with government money and fleeing into the night. The documents he left behind showing where money came from and to whom it went provide a detailed incrimination; there is evidence that he and his closest circle stole about $10 billion each year directly from the budget via various corrupt schemes. On this legal basis, he and about 18 others are having their accounts frozen in Europe, Canada and the U.S.
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thinkingfaith.org/articles/20140313_1.htm
 
josie_L said:
There are no nukes in the Ukraine.
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Not at present, but several members of the new Ukranian government have stated that they believe that Ukraine needs to become a nuclear state. Look at it this way: How would we have reacted if Mexico had joined the Warsaw Pact in the 1960s?
 
Monkey1976 said:
Not at present, but several members of the new Ukranian government have stated that they believe that Ukraine needs to become a nuclear state. Look at it this way: How would we have reacted if Mexico had joined the Warsaw Pact in the 1960s?
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Was this said before or after Russian occupation?
 
Monkey1976 said:
Not at present, but several members of the new Ukranian government have stated that they believe that Ukraine needs to become a nuclear state. Look at it this way: How would we have reacted if Mexico had joined the Warsaw Pact in the 1960s?
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Ukraine is a democracy now, and really has no chance of becoming a nuclear-armed power. Are you saying NATO and the Warsaw Pact were morally equivalent? Try telling that to the Poles, Estonians, Hungarians, Czechs, I mean all of Eastern Europe.
 
Monkey1976 said:
Not at present, but several members of the new Ukranian government have stated that they believe that Ukraine needs to become a nuclear state. Look at it this way: How would we have reacted if Mexico had joined the Warsaw Pact in the 1960s?
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How long have those NATO bases been in the Ukraine, and why are they a threat to Russia now?
 
Seamus_L said:
NATO bases in Ukraine are to Russia what Soviet Missile bases in Cuba were to the US and what Nukes in Iran would be to Israel.
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Cuba was a totalitarian dictatorship, and remains a society governed by a dictatorship which imprisons its people. Ukraine is a democracy which allows freedom of religion and liberty. Ukrainians want protection from Putin’s Kremlin who is evidently bent on war.

There are differences between rule-of-law democracies and militaristic autocracies.
 
KyivAndrew said:
Cuba was a totalitarian dictatorship, and remains a society governed by a dictatorship which imprisons its people. Ukraine is a democracy which allows freedom of religion and liberty. Ukrainians want protection from Putin’s Kremlin who is evidently bent on war.

There are differences between rule-of-law democracies and militaristic autocracies.
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iri.org/sites/default/fil…ted%20Poll.pdf

Public Opinion Survey, Residents of Ukraine , August 27-September 9, 2013, reported by USAID and Gallop. This survey undertaken before November and would indicate a fairly even split within the Ukrainian population, as to joining Russia or the EU. I would doubt the Ukrainians expect Putin to start a war with them,
 
pepipop said:
I would doubt the Ukrainians expect Putin to start a war with them,
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Well, I have to step out for awhile, but if you read the Ukrainian press, this is exactly what most Ukrainians fear right now; Putin invading them. Seriously.
 
josie_L said:
Was this before or after Russian occupation?
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Russia has “occupied” Crimea since the late 1700s. It has only been Ukranian since 1954, and even then there has always been a Russian military presence. We still don’t know if the troops without insignia were Russian military, Crimean, or what.
KyivAndrew said:
Ukraine is a democracy now, and really has no chance of becoming a nuclear power. Are you saying NATO and the Warsaw Pact were morally equivalent? Try telling that to the Poles, Estonians, Hungarians, Czechs, I mean all of Eastern Europe.
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Ukraine is currently under a government that took power via a coup - the current leaders were not elected. President Yanukovych had agreed to step down and for elections to be held the day before the coup happened. The protesters had already won, and then they chose to immediately seize power instead of being elected. In reaction to this, pro-Russian protesters in the Crimea did the same. Both sides are in power illegally.

I’m not saying that NATO and the Warsaw Pact are morally equivalent, I’m simply trying to point out how we can understand the Russian mindset regarding this and how we can react to that instead of shouting, “Putin is taking the Sudetenland!!!”. Putin isn’t Hitler. He also isn’t a saint. He is an intelligent man driven by what he believes to be best for Russia and himself. I disagree with the choices he has made regarding the Crimea, but I believe I understand why he made them.
josie_L said:
How long have those NATO bases been in the Ukraine, and why are they a threat to Russia now?
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There are no NATO bases in the Ukraine. That is the last thing that Putin wants to come out of this. The analogy was intended to illustrate why Putin is making the choices he is instead of simply calling him Hitler and having done with it. What I think is one of the biggest mistakes that he’s making is that he’s treating the current government of Crimea as legitimate, when they took power in exactly the same way as the current Ukrainian government.

I honestly don’t see any party in this - the Ukrainian government, the Russian government, or the Crimean government - as the “good guys”. Were I in charge, the current Ukrainian and Crimean governments would both immediately step down and hold elections with international observers in place to verify the results, and Russia would be renegotiate its agreements regarding both natural gas supplies and the port at Sevastopol with both new governments after a full withdrawal of all ground troops.
 
Russia now has no choice if it wants to keep Ukraine under its influence. They have to invade. Only about 17% of the population outside of Crimea is ethnic Russian.

If he invades, countries in the Western part of Europe will probably push for stronger ties with the EU.

I was probably mistaken that Putin was playing chess with Ukraine. Looks like he was not thinking that far ahead after all.
 
I’m not making moral comparisons between NATO (as it was during the existence of the former Soviet Union) and the Warsaw Pact, but the world has changed a great deal in that time.
I think a good hypothetical scenario would be to imagine Russian military bases being built in Cuba (again) Bermuda, the Bahamas, Panama, Venezuela, etc AND then, an American friendly government in Mexico get's forced out by large violent riots in the capital, where anti-government protesters wave hundreds of Russian flags, and Russian politicians turn up in the midst of the riots to encourage those taking part, even making statements regarding which future leaders would be acceptable to Russia. add to that, several leaders of the protests make no secret of there plans to align with Russia and even allow military bases in there country then picture some of the ringleaders of the riots openly boasting that "they've killed Americans before and are ready to do it again". If you can picture all that, then you can see what Russia is dealing with here.
 
gilliam said:
Putin is going to grab every inch he can now.
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Why? What would he gain by taking over the Ukraine?

The articles state that there are anti-Russian activists protesting in eastern Ukraine. Where is the call from the current Ukrainian government for restraint on their part?
 
Seamus L,

The Russian Orthodox Church was founded in Kiev. I think as far as Putin is concerned that is justification to invade Ukraine.
 
Yes, and to some Russians, Ukraine is Little Russia, Tchaikovsky even did a symphony with that name. The problem is that Russia has been made to feel that there world is gradually closing in, I,e Warsaw Pact is no more while NATO-EU keep growing.
 
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