Ukraine (cont.)

[Vouthon]

15:42: More on those reports of Ukrainian troops being attacked at a base in the main Crimean city of Simferopol: “One Ukrainian serviceman has been wounded in the neck and collarbone,” a Ukrainian military spokesman tells Reuters. “Now we have barricaded ourselves on the second floor. The headquarters has been taken and the commander has been taken. They want us to put down our arms but we do not intend to surrender.”

This does not look good. Is the political stand-off between Ukraine and Russia now turning into a military one?

 

[Vouthon]

Ben Brown, BBC News, Simferopol tweets: #Simferopol Russian troops pushing back press at scene of shooting at Ukrainian base. Bursts of automatic fire heard pic.twitter.com/gkIQwiCAZC

 

[GaryTaylor]

“Russia has increased its military presence near Ukraine’s border as it tries to repeat the events that led up to Crimea’s incorporation into Russia in the east of the country, the governor of the Kharkiv region said.”

“Don’t believe those who scare you with Russia, who yell that Crimea will be followed by other regions,” Putin said in the speech at the Kremlin.

bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-18/russian-troop-buildup-seen-at-ukraine-border-after-crimea.html

 

[josie_L]

What is this “West to gain a foothold” business? If the people of Ukraine do not want Yanukovych and the vast majority didn’t, are backed up by their legitimately elected parliament and his own party which impeaches him and forms a new government, what has the ‘West’ or Russia got to do with that?

On the same token, if the Crimeans wanted independence why did Russia have to get involved? Why did the Crimean parliament not negotiate a referendum with the Kiev authorities that would have been in keeping with the constitution of Ukraine, just as the Scottish Parliament has done with the Westminster Parliament in London?

Ukraine was not descending into anarchy. There had been a changeover of power that was legitimated by its parliament to an interim government and the decision to hold free, democratic elections later this year.

Don’t bother with the facts Vouthon, just remember that according to some posters this revolution was a “coup” just like Yanukovych declared, and the new government is fascist, and there was anarchy threatening, and people in Crimea were in danger of being persecuted, and that it’s Crimean folk not Russian troops that have taken over the Crimea(amazing how quickly such people were able to organize themselves), and that there is no barricading of Ukrainian military bases, and that this referendum was the voice of the people, and that it was all legitimate, and that it offered a choice to the 42% of the population that isn’t interested in leaving the Ukraine . . . . etc.

 

[josie_L]

The West gaining a foothold business refers to the EU, NATO and politicians like John McCain, who are staunchly anti Russian, and who turned up to encourage the protesters.

I’m willing to bet that Russia has more enemies NOW than they ever had before the invasion.

 

[pepipop]

“Russia has increased its military presence near Ukraine’s border as it tries to repeat the events that led up to Crimea’s incorporation into Russia in the east of the country, the governor of the Kharkiv region said.”

“Don’t believe those who scare you with Russia, who yell that Crimea will be followed by other regions,” Putin said in the speech at the Kremlin.

bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-18/russian-troop-buildup-seen-at-ukraine-border-after-crimea.html

I’ll believe it when it’s proven. The Ukrainians have been saying this for weeks. The Russians allowed them to fly a plane over the border to check for themselves and their were no troops there. I cannot see Putin going into the rest of the Ukraine, wouldn’t do his credibility much good after his speech. The new Ukrainian government and other Ukrainians, obviously, will be pretty annoyed right now.

 

[Vouthon]

Don’t bother with the facts Vouthon, just remember that according to some posters this revolution was a “coup” just like Yanukovych declared, and the new government is fascist, and there was anarchy threatening, and people in Crimea were in danger of being persecuted, and that it’s Crimean folk not Russian troops that have taken over the Crimea(amazing how quickly such people were able to organize themselves), and that there is no barricading of Ukrainian military bases, and that this referendum was the voice of the people, and that it was all legitimate, and that it offered a choice to the 42% of the population that isn’t interested in leaving the Ukraine . . . . etc.

As usual, you are right…why bother at all

I’ll just leave it to Putin to exacerbate this crisis further and let the facts speak for themselves.

After Ukraine, I do strongly believe Moldova to be the next on Putin’s shopping list:

16:41: More from Moldovan PM Iurie Leanca on how the crisis in Crimea will affect his country’s majority Russian secessionist movement in Trans-Dniestr. “Unfortunately… our experience shows that if they [secessionist conflicts] are not tackled quickly and rapidly then they become protracted and they also become contagious,” he told the BBC.

After that, Putin is confronted by the fact that the significant ethnic Russian minorities in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia who he will also claim in time need his personal protection just like the South Ossetians, Abkhazians and Crimeans are living in countries that are part of the NATO alliance.

The question is this: is he crazy enough, or will he become so sure of himself, as to attempt secession in these former Soviet states?

Moldova like Ukraine isn’t part of NATO, so he is fully aware that no military assistance need be given to them since they cannot invoke art. 4 or 5.

 

[GaryTaylor]

euronews.com/2014/03/18/ukrainian-troops-being-attacked-at-base-by-russian-forces/

Vladislav Seleznyov, speaking to Reuters by telephone from Crimea, said one serviceman at the base had died of his wounds.

A second man, a captain, was injured.

Mass arrests reported by CNN. Moldova may be next.

 

[Vouthon]

The Estonian PM has incidentally just chipped in again:

16:56: BBC Monitoring reports: Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, on a state visit to Poland, says that “the crisis in Ukraine has become a crisis for the whole of Europe”, the ERR News website quotes him as saying.

 

[Aramis]

Obama, IMO has never been in a similar situation to this. Currently, all the US states are within the union of the USA. We’re not talking about a situation whereby Putin’s gone into a totally foreign country that has no cultural or heritable ties to Russia. The country is on his doorstep, Crimea and Russia have centuries of history together, 97% of the Crimeans still only speak Russian. Crimea saw the mess up North and asked for help, they got it - and are now hopefully getting what they always wanted, i.e. to be a republic, not a autonomous one.

Obviously, Putin is not stupid and will get something out of it too, however the EU/US helped start the rioting - Dr John Hulsman explained it best in a piece I posted yesterday, as below. Putin also doesn’t want any problems in relation to his getting access to Russia’s only warm water port.

If Putin goes off invading countries, that have nothing to do with Russia - for whatever reasons, then it all changes.

rt.com/shows/sophieco/ukraine-economy-rescue-politics-810/

It’s not like speaking “only Russian” is much of a handicap - there are some shifts in pronunciation, and more noticeable differences in spellings, but Russian and Ukrainian are mutually intelligible, both written and spoken.

 

[josie_L]

It’s funny how people keep forgetting the 42% of Crimeans who are not Russian ethnics that do not want to be part of the Russian federation.

 

[Vouthon]

17:10: The international community’s former high representative in Bosnia has accused Russia of stoking Serb separatist sentiment in the Western-backed Balkan country in the style of Ukraine’s Crimea.

“Some Bosnian politicians are playing the Moscow card, even, most dangerously of all, the Slav card, in support of policies of separation,” Paddy Ashdown tells a Nato seminar in Sarajevo. “They hope that an illegal referendum in Crimea will make one here more likely. And Russia is doing nothing to discourage them - quite the opposite.”

Other “sham” plebiscites are almost fated too occur in countries such as Bosnia and Moldova if Putin convinces himself that it is a viable foreign policy method to use in creating his “Eurasion Union” (aka the reincarnation of the Russian Empire under the Tsars and Soviets, note the Crimeans waving the old Soviet flag during the celebrations after the referendum).

This is why tough, very tough, economic sanctions from the USA and the EU are a critical necessity.

 

[J_Peterson]

It’s funny how people keep forgetting the 42% of Crimeans who are not Russian ethnics that do not want to be part of the Russian federation.

Also how they weren’t given a chance to stay loyal to Kiev. If I were put in that situation I would not vote because there really isn’t any grey area, no lesser of 2 evils.

 

[Vouthon]

It’s funny how people keep forgetting the 42% of Crimeans who are not Russian ethnics that do not want to be part of the Russian federation.

And who had no choice to remain part of Ukraine on the ballot paper either, which is why practically all of them boycotted it. Tartars are already trying to leave Crimea to enter Western Ukraine in droves.

 

[josie_L]

Other “sham” plebiscites are almost fated too occur in countries such as Bosnia and Moldova if Putin convinces himself that it is a viable foreign policy method to use in creating his “Eurasion Union” (aka the reincarnation of the Russian Empire under the Tsars and Soviets).

This is why tough, very tough, economic sanctions from the USA and the EU are a critical necessity.

Don’t forget Canada!!

 

[J_Peterson]

And who had no choice to remain part of Ukraine on the ballot paper either, which is why practically all of them boycotted it. Tartars are already trying to leave Crimea to enter Western Ukraine in droves.

That’s terrible. I can’t imagine what it’s like to suddenly become a foreigner in your own country.

 

[josie_L]

That’s terrible. I can’t imagine what it’s like to suddenly become a foreigner in your own country.

No, what’s terrible is that crosses were painted on their doors as was done in the past by Soviets, i.e., right before they were deported, thus in my mind, this was a calculated move, i.e., whoever did this wanted the Tatars to probably leave in droves.

 

[Vouthon]

That’s terrible. I can’t imagine what it’s like to suddenly become a foreigner in your own country.

I know, which is especially painful for Tartars because they were the native majority population of Crimea until Stalin came to power and deported their ethnic group from their homeland en masse under false pretexts that they had been sympathetic to the Nazi invaders during WWII. More ethnic Russians were “settled” there in their place, which is why they became the majority. Before that Tartar Crimea had been incorporated into the Russian Empire during the 18th century under the reign of Catherine the Great.

Now many Crimean Tartars - who have never wanted to be under Russian control because of this painful history - are leaving Crimea for Western Ukraine. During the referendum most barricaded themselves in their homes because they knew that the Russian troops would see them as a threat owing to the fact that there was no way in hell any Tartar was ever going to support Russia.

The Tartars in Crimea fear that they will now be considered as some kind of fifth column. There is choice is thus stay and fear for their existence or flee to Western Ukraine.

 

[Vouthon]

Am I really reading this…

17:43: More from President Putin’s spokesman Dmiri Peskov in an interview with the BBC: “Russia will do whatever is possible, using all legal means, in total correspondence with international law, to protect and to extend a hand to Russians living in eastern regions of Ukraine.”

What can I say? Of course Putin is now the protector of Russians everywhere, no matter in what country borders do not exist under Russia’s new pan-Slavic expansionist nationalism. I am seeing a pattern: deny that one is going to use military force, then spawn propaganda that ethnic Russians are under threat, then send in provocateurs to rile the crowds and overthrow local government, then get that local government already under Russian control to ask Russia to step in and then Putin the “peace-lover” holds his hands up in the air exclaiming, “I don’t want to but as a last resort I now have too”.

Are they going to repeat this again with Donetsk? I sure hope not.

The BBC live feeds have just linked to a very disturbing article in the New York Times, disturbing in its description of how a hypothetical Ukraine-Russia war could escalate into something far worse:

nytimes.com/2014/03/18/opinion/cohen-the-unlikely-road-to-war.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

So if Putin really does invade eastern Ukraine, he may be guilty of something far worse in the long-run than merely dismembering one nation state.

 

[Tenofovir]

I know, which is especially painful for Tartars because they were the native majority population of Crimea until Stalin came to power and deported their ethnic group from their homeland en masse under false pretexts that they had been sympathetic to the Nazi invaders during WWII. More ethnic Russians were “settled” there in their place, which is why they became the majority. Before that Tartar Crimea had been incorporated into the Russian Empire during the 18th century under the reign of Catherine the Great.

True. But then that extra-constitutional and illegal deposition of the previous Ukrainian government should not have occurred. And same for Kosovo. Once you set that Kosovo precedent which was enthusiastically embraced by the West, why shouldn’t Russia do the same? Where are the Kosovar Serbs now? Why does NYT not write litanies about that and demand sanctions against Kosovo?

It’s plain to see there is a double standard. And innocent people get caught in the middle because of these power plays among the powerful.