Ukraine (cont.)

[Ridgerunner]

Some of the same warning signs which preceded WWI can be found in these developments. It was more of a war of treaty obligations, with each side antagonizing the other in the years before, than anything else and so too would any war with Russia involving the EU or NATO. The Swedes are convinced this business in Ukraine is a prelude to an invasion of the Baltic States. I don’t know if Putin is crazy enough to risk a war with the EU or NATO over them though.

I see no reason to question Putin’s sanity. He is facing very weak European states, none of which has exhibited the slightest desire to go to war with anyone. And that’s Putin’s advantage. He could pull the same “ethnic protection” thing to destabilize any of the Baltic states and demand territorial concessions. His “stop line” is actually Poland. Probably Sweden, too, although he could demand concessions other than territorial of Sweden, and the Swedes know it.

He is also facing U.S. leadership that wants to expend all of the U.S. resources and then some on domestic vote-buying programs. That’s what most of the European states have been doing for some time. He knows Obama is not game for a fight of any sort, military or otherwise.

 

[EmperorNapoleon]

I see no reason to question Putin’s sanity. He is facing very weak European states, none of which has exhibited the slightest desire to go to war with anyone. And that’s Putin’s advantage. He could pull the same “ethnic protection” thing to destabilize any of the Baltic states and demand territorial concessions. His “stop line” is actually Poland. Probably Sweden, too, although he could demand concessions other than territorial of Sweden, and the Swedes know it.

He is also facing U.S. leadership that wants to expend all of the U.S. resources and then some on domestic vote-buying programs. That’s what most of the European states have been doing for some time. He knows Obama is not game for a fight of any sort, military or otherwise.

Russia doesn’t stand a chance against the EU or NATO, of which the Baltic States are members, if it came down to war unless Putin is planning to start lobbing nukes at the outset. I would grant you that probably neither are prepared to repel an invasion of the Baltic States, but I believe they would respond with force to remove Russia’s military from those territories once occupied.

 

[Peter_Plato]

I see no reason to question Putin’s sanity. He is facing very weak European states, none of which has exhibited the slightest desire to go to war with anyone. And that’s Putin’s advantage. He could pull the same “ethnic protection” thing to destabilize any of the Baltic states and demand territorial concessions. His “stop line” is actually Poland. Probably Sweden, too, although he could demand concessions other than territorial of Sweden, and the Swedes know it.

He is also facing U.S. leadership that wants to expend all of the U.S. resources and then some on domestic vote-buying programs. That’s what most of the European states have been doing for some time. He knows Obama is not game for a fight of any sort, military or otherwise.

History tends to disprove this sentiment. War has often been used to distract from problems at home. The situation for Obama is becoming futile to the point that an attention shift would not seem inconceivable. There is also the question of war as economic catalyst that you seem to be ignoring.

The fact that these states are “very weak” serves as a convenient pretext for the involvement of other less feeble but itchy states.

And clearly they have been and continue to be involved …

dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608679/PETER-HITCHENS-Who-using-spies-lies-grab-power-Kiev-We-are.html

 

[Seamus_L]

When it comes to megalomania, I’d say America has left Russia in the dust.
I keep hearing ridiculous assertions regarding who Russia might attack next. So far, I've heard Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Czech Republic, and Sweden. When the US invaded Panama, did anyone ask, is Bolivia next ? Or after Somalia, did we wonder when Kenya would be invaded. As unlikely as that all sounds, considering America's track record for attacking other nations, it would be a more believable scenario.

 

[KyivAndrew]

I keep hearing ridiculous assertions regarding who Russia might attack next. So far, I’ve heard Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Czech Republic, and Sweden.

Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland and the Czechs were all under Soviet Russian oppression last century at a terrible cost of innocent lives (not to forget the Soviet attack on Finland). Significant segments of these countries’ populations were sent to the Gulag last century. Putin bemoans the disintegration of the Soviet Empire - “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the last century”, as he so amorally put it. As if these countries have no historical justification to worry about Putin’s expansionism and his glorification of the Soviet Secret Police heroes who butchered these countries’ populations. Some of these countries have recently been victims of Russian cyber-warfare.

And Sweden is no exception. Today, Russian bombers practice “aggressive” bombing runs on Sweden, and the Baltic States and Poland.
theaviationist.com/2013/11/13/russian-bombers-sweden-new-attack/

Very reassuring behavior. The military of Russia practices war games that end with the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces nuking Warsaw, Poland. No! of course the people of the Baltic countries, Poland, Finland, the Czechs and other East European countries formerly under Soviet domination have no reason to worry about the Kremlin or Russian imperialism. Of course not. They should all be embracing Putin and agreeing that he is right and that it is a tragedy that the Soviet Empire collapsed.

Why not actually ask the people of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, the Czechs, if they are happy and feel more secure in NATO and with the US, or not?

 

[KyivAndrew]

A very illuminating piece by Russian writer Vladimir Sorokin on his native Russia and events in Ukraine, which points to the disease of the Homo Sovieticus:

In the course of three days in August 1991, on Lubianskaya Square, across from the headquarters of the fearsome, mighty KGB… a huge crowd was preparing to topple the symbol of that sinister institution—the statue of its founder, Dzerzhinsky, “Iron Felix” as his Bolshevik comrades-in-arms called him.

The swift dismantling of remaining Soviet monuments recently in Ukraine caused me to remember the Dzerzhinsky episode. Dozens of statues of Lenin fell in Ukrainian cities; no one in the opposition asked people to treat them “in a civilized manner,” because in this case a “polite” dismantling could mean only one thing—conserving a potent symbol of Soviet power.

In 2014, Lenins were felled in Ukraine and were allowed to collapse. No one tried to preserve them. This “Leninfall” took place during the brutal confrontation on Kiev’s Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square), when Viktor Yanukovych’s power also collapsed, demonstrating that a genuine anti-Soviet revolution had finally occurred in Ukraine. No real revolution has happened in Russia. Lenin, Stalin, and their bloody associates still repose on Red Square, and hundreds of statues still stand, not only on Russia’s squares and plazas, but in the minds of its citizens.

The fury of our politicians’ and bureaucrats’ response to the mass destruction of Soviet idols in Ukraine is revealing. You might think, why pity symbols of the past? But Russian bureaucrats understand that their beloved Homo sovieticus crumbled along with Lenin. “They are destroying monuments to Lenin because he personifies Russia!” one politician exclaimed. Yes: Soviet Russia and the USSR, the ruthless empire, built by Stalin, that enslaved whole peoples, created a devastating famine in Ukraine, and carried out purges and mass repressions. The recent Ukrainian revolution was indeed directed against the heirs of that empire—Putin and Yanukovych. It is telling that pro-Russian demonstrations in Crimea and eastern parts of Ukraine invariably took place next to statues of Lenin.

In recent opinion polls [in Russia], almost half of those surveyed consider Stalin to have been a “good leader. In the new interpretation of history, Stalin is seen as an “effective manager,” and the purges are characterized as a rotation of cadres necessary for the modernization of the USSR. The Soviet Union may have collapsed geographically and economically, but ideologically it survives in the hearts of millions of Homo sovieticus. The Soviet mentality turned out to be tenacious; it adapted to the wild capitalism of the 1990s and began to mutate in the post-Soviet state. That tenacity is what preserved a pyramidal system of power that goes back as far as Ivan the Terrible and was strengthened by Stalin.

…this fifteen-year journey [under Putin] back to the USSR under the leadership of a former KGB lieutenant colonel has shown the world the vicious nature and archaic underpinnings of the Russian state’s “vertical power” structure… With a monarchical structure such as this, the country automatically becomes hostage to the psychosomatic quirks of its leader. All of his fears, passions, weaknesses, and complexes become state policy. If he is paranoid, the whole country must fear enemies and spies; if he has insomnia, all the ministries must work at night; if he’s a teetotaler, everyone must stop drinking; if he’s a drunk—everyone should booze it up; if he doesn’t like America, which his beloved KGB fought against, the whole population must dislike the United States. A country such as this cannot have a predictable, stable future; gradual development is extraordinarily difficult.

On the subject of enemies within… In his speech about the accession of Crimea to Russia, President Putin mentioned a “fifth column” and “national traitors” who are supposedly preventing Russia from moving victoriously forward. As many have already remarked, the expression “national traitor” comes from Mein Kampf.

nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/may/08/let-the-past-collapse-on-time/?insrc=hpss

As I’ve mentioned before Putin received his moral understanding of the world and ethics from the KGB. I mean Putin actually rehabilitated the late Soviet KGB leader Yuri Andropov (the butcher of Budapest in 1956) as a worthy exemplar upon Putin becoming President of Russia. Let us remind ourselves that Andropov sent tens upon tens of thousands of so-called ant-Soviet enemies of the state forcibly into dreadful psychiatric camps where they could be drugged and taught to love the Soviet Union. This was a real program under Andropov, under which many Ukrainian Catholics and other Christians were repressed. And Putin adores this same Andropov, puts up plaques to him, dedicates dates to mark him, creates Andropov academies for today’s Russian secret police - you know the Russian secret police whose agents now number in the hundreds in Ukraine but whom Putin denies being there.

And of course Putin would deny the truth here. I mean to Putin’s hero Andropov, lying and deceit were second nature and the tricks of the trade.

The best prism through which to understand Putin is as a xenophobic KGB man and Russian imperialist bent on reversing that greatest tragedy of the 20th Century in his mind - the destruction of the Soviet Union. Putin is attempting to rebuild it in his own manner in some flippy neo-Soviet/national imperialist amalgamation.

 

[KyivAndrew]

Look whose busts to this day still adorn Red Square by the Kremlin: Stalin, Andropov, and the original founder of the Soviet Secret Police the bloody Felix Dzerzhinsky. You’d think Putin would have taken them down by now as all three were Red Criminals of the highest order and literally have the bloods of millions on their hands. But no, they remain in Putin’s Russia, as of course does the Lenin Mausoleum which Putin will never remove as he views Lenin’s remains worthy of the same veneration as of Christian Saints. Here is the link to these three’s busts and tombs in the Kremlin Necropolis (though the photographer may have mistakenly taken the Kalinin bust for Dzerzhinsky I believe, I’m not sure, but both are there in any event):

t3licensing.com/license/clip/602011_083.do

The tombs of Stalin, Andropov, and Dzerzhinsky are behind their busts. I assume Putin, as the current head of the Kremlin, foresees his future there as well alongside.

 

[GEddie]

When it comes to megalomania, I’d say America has left Russia in the dust.

                               I keep hearing ridiculous assertions regarding who Russia might attack next. So far, I've heard Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Czech Republic, and Sweden. When the US invaded Panama, did anyone ask, is Bolivia next ? Or after Somalia, did we wonder when Kenya would be invaded. As unlikely as that all sounds, considering America's track record for attacking other nations, it would be a more believable scenario.

The difference is that while the Russians have profited territorially from their incursion into Georgia and their intimidation of Ukraine, the USA gained nothing whatsoever from the wars you mention (which I will agree should not have been fought).

Unlike Russia, the USA has in fact contracted territorially since the late 1900s (withdrawal from the Panama Canal Zone; reversion of boundary areas to Mexico in 1968; cession of islands along the Alaskan frontier to Russia since the turn of the century).

While the current leadership’s love for “humanitarian” interventions into foreign countries needs to be suppressed (we cannot afford them anymore), I’d say that the world per se has had nothing to fear from us.

ICXC NIKA.

 

[GEddie]

And Russia has three very recent attacks on other states, annexing their territory. So who actually has the best reason to be concerned about “buffers”? Certainly not Russia.

Georgia, Ukraine and = ?

Chechnya is part of Russia, so should not count.

ICXC NIKA

 

[GEddie]

History tends to disprove this sentiment. War has often been used to distract from problems at home. The situation for Obama is becoming futile to the point that an attention shift would not seem inconceivable. There is also the question of war as economic catalyst that you seem to be ignoring.

The fact that these states are “very weak” serves as a convenient pretext for the involvement of other less feeble but itchy states.

And clearly they have been and continue to be involved …

dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608679/PETER-HITCHENS-Who-using-spies-lies-grab-power-Kiev-We-are.html

War as an economic catalyst has been massively overstated over the decades.

Britain has yet to recover fully from WW2.

The USA **seemed **to profit from its involvement in WW2, only because a) we started from a baseline of depression at war’s onset and b) everybody else lost far more than we did.

The wars we have fought since the turn of the century have been nothing but a drain economically. And a war with Russia would be infinitely worse.

ICXC NIKA

 

[Ridgerunner]

Georgia, Ukraine and = ?

Chechnya is part of Russia, so should not count.

ICXC NIKA

Moldova; Transdnistria. A breakaway Russian speaking segment, separated from Russia by southern Ukraine. When Russia seizes southern Ukraine Transdnistria will be linked geographically with Russia.

 

[Seamus_L]

Unfortunately, the so called Russian invasion of Georgia seldom receives the big asterisk it’s deserving of. Russia launched tactical assaults on targets within the country recognized as Georgia, only after the latter had carried out attacks on Russian forces and civilians that resulted in casualties within the disputed region South Ossetia.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Look whose busts to this day still adorn Red Square by the Kremlin: Stalin, Andropov, and the original founder of the Soviet Secret Police the bloody Felix Dzerzhinsky. You’d think Putin would have taken them down by now as all three were Red Criminals of the highest order and literally have the bloods of millions on their hands. But no, they remain in Putin’s Russia, as of course does the Lenin Mausoleum which Putin will never remove as he views Lenin’s remains worthy of the same veneration as of Christian Saints. Here is the link to these three’s busts and tombs in the Kremlin Necropolis (though the photographer may have mistakenly taken the Kalinin bust for Dzerzhinsky I believe, I’m not sure, but both are there in any event):

t3licensing.com/license/clip/602011_083.do

The tombs of Stalin, Andropov, and Dzerzhinsky are behind their busts. I assume Putin, as the current head of the Kremlin, foresees his future there as well alongside.

Communism in Russia was not about communism. It was about the dictatorship and aggrandizement of elites to the exclusion of everyone else. Lenin recognized this. Putin’s Russia is no different in the most important respect.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Unfortunately, the so called Russian invasion of Georgia seldom receives the big asterisk it’s deserving of. Russia launched tactical assaults on targets within the country recognized as Georgia, only after the latter had carried out attacks on Russian forces and civilians that resulted in casualties within the disputed region South Ossetia.

Yes, that’s Putin’s cover story, just as a similar cover story was used to conquer Crimea and just as it will be in eastern and southern Ukraine. Send in the FSB agents, cause a crisis, conquer. Simple formula.

 

[AnastasiaRomano]

A very illuminating piece by Russian writer Vladimir Sorokin on his native Russia and events in Ukraine, which points to the disease of the Homo Sovieticus:

nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/may/08/let-the-past-collapse-on-time/?insrc=hpss

Andrew, thanks for this link. It was a really interesting read. I was struck by this quote at the end:

We shouldn’t have waited for the crane to arrive at Lubianskaya Square in August 1991. We should have toppled the iron idol [of Dzherzhinsky] even if its head did crash through the pavement and damage ‘important underground communications.’

We would live in a different country now.

How important it is, as it turns out, to let the past collapse at the right time…

There’s a really interesting book I read last autumn called “It Was a Long Time Ago, and It Never Happened Anyway: Russia and the Communist Past.” The author, David Satter, examines a variety of events after the fall of the USSR and argues that until Russia truly comes to terms with the ugly history of communism, it will be “stuck” – or, to use the phrase Sorokin does, it will remain an iceberg. Satter also argues that other post-Soviet countries – e.g. the Baltics and the former satellite states in Eastern Europe – have advanced farther economically, culturally, spiritually, etc. precisely because they have dealt with the Communist past more honestly and fully. It’s a fascinating book and well worth reading even if one doesn’t completely agree with all the author’s arguments.

 

[tomarin]

With all due respect, I doubt protection has anything to do with it. After all, most countries don’t have buffer states between them and potential enemies. And besides, who could possibly imagine a militarily aggressive EU?

I would agree with you, but there has to be some reason why they fear NATO right?

 

[GEddie]

I would agree with you, but there has to be some reason why they fear NATO right?

The same reason why we feared the Soviets in Cuba and their actions in Central America.

No-one likes the avowed enemy to be too near.

ICXC NIKA.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I would agree with you, but there has to be some reason why they fear NATO right?

My guess is that there is no fear on Russia’s part of NATO at all in a military sense. Nor is there any reason for Russia to fear it short of very extreme provocation like Russian troops crossing into Poland. But Russia won’t do that under present circumstances.

Russia may well fear westernization right on its border, and likely does. While Ukraine is a long way from becoming a prosperous western-oriented state, the potential is there so long as Ukraine is independent. That’s the real fear, and that’s why concept of a turn to the EU really was viewed by Putin as threatening. How could Russia tolerate the idea of ethnic Russians in Ukraine living a better life one day, right next to the Russian border? Russians in Russia might actually realize something is wrong with Russia’s leadership.

 

[Seamus_L]

A better life ? Go ask the Greeks or the Spaniards or the Italians or Cypriots about the better life in the EU.

 

[Seamus_L]

Look’s like it may start up again soon bbc.com/news/world-europe-27118875